October 27, 2026
U.S. Midterm Elections, October 2026
Democrats with 8-Point Advantage Heading Into Midterm Elections... Plurality Says Vote is Mainly Against the President
A majority of likely voters nationally say they are more likely to vote for the Democratic running for Congress in their district rather than the Republican, giving the Democrats an 8-point lead on the generic congressional ballot question. With negative views toward President Donald Trump permeating the electoral landscape, a plurality of likely voters say their congressional vote is one in opposition to the president.
- The Democratic candidates running for Congress (52%) lead the Republican candidates (44%) among likely voters nationally. Among registered voters, the Democrats have a 10-point lead. In September, the Democrats had a 12-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot question among registered voters.
- Democratic congressional candidates (52%) have a double-digit lead against the Republicans (39%) among independents who are likely to vote.
- A majority of likely voters (51%) think the Democrat running for Congress in their district will win compared with 46% who say the Republican will be elected.
- 44% of likely voters say their vote for Congress is mainly a vote against President Trump. 21% say their ballot is mainly in favor of the president while 35% say the president is not influencing their vote very much. Independents are more than three times as likely to say their vote is mainly against President Trump (44%) than one in favor of him (12%).
- 55% of likely voters say it is more important to vote for candidates who will bring about change rather than to support candidates with experience and a proven track record (41%). Democrats (74%) and independents (63%) are more likely to prioritize change than Republicans (28%).
- 84% of likely voters nationally are either enthusiastic or very enthusiastic to vote in this year's midterm elections. 16% are not very enthusiastic or not enthusiastic at all about casting their ballot. Democrats (91%) are slightly more enthusiastic than Republicans (86%) to vote this year. 76% of independents are also excited to vote.
Trump Approval Rating at 40% Among Likely Voters
40% of likely voters approve of the job President Trump is doing in office, and 59% disapprove. Likely voters are more than twice as likely to strongly disapprove (53%) of President Trump’s job performance than to strongly approve (24%). The president’s approval rating notches down to 38% among registered voters nationally. Among this group, 61% disapprove.
President Trump’s favorable rating is also upside down. 37% of likely voters have a favorable opinion of the president, and 58%, including 14% of Republicans, have an unfavorable impression of him.
More Than Three in Four Likely Voters Confident in Election Integrity
77% of likely voters are confident or very confident that their state or local government will conduct fair and accurate elections in November. 21% are not very confident or not confident at all that fair elections will be carried out. Democrats (88%) are more likely than independents (75%) and Republicans (68%) to trust the election process.
More Than Eight in Ten Say Candidates Should Accept Election Results, But Partisan Differences are Present
81% of likely voters nationally say, if the candidate they support is said to have lost after the votes are counted, that candidate should definitely or probably accept the election results. 16%, though, say the candidate should probably or definitely challenge the results. While 90% of Democrats and 83% of independents say their candidate should accept the results, fewer Republicans (70%) say the same.
Cost of Living & Preserving Democracy Top Issues Heading Into the Election
A plurality of likely voters (34%) say, when thinking about voting in this year’s election, cost of living is top of mind. Preserving democracy ranks second with 33% followed by immigration (12%), foreign policy (5%), healthcare (5%), crime (4%), abortion (2%), education (2%), and climate change (1%).
Nearly Four in Ten Say Family Finances Have Deteriorated
While 44% of likely voters say their personal finances have stayed about the same in the last year, 38% say that their personal finances have gotten worse. 15% say their financial picture has gotten better. Democrats (51%) are more than twice as likely than Republicans (21%) to say their family finances have gotten worse.
Among registered voters nationally, more registered voters now say their finances have deteriorated (40% from 34% in September). Those who say their finances have improved have inched down to 16% from 20%, previously.
Majority Perceives Negative Impact of Data Centers
Fueled by Democrats and independents, 59% of likely voters think the data centers being built around the country by tech companies have a negative impact on the country. 33% say they have a positive impact, and two percent are usure.
Opposition to data centers grows when likely voters consider their own communities. 66% of likely voters either oppose or strongly oppose these centers. 27% strongly favor or favor data centers being built in their communities.
Methodology
This NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll national survey of 1,289 registered voters was conducted October 19th through October 20th, 2026, by the Marist Poll in partnership with NPR and PBS News. Registered voters 18 years of age and older residing in the United States were contacted through a multi-mode design: By phone using live interviewers, by text, or online. Results for registered voters are statistically significant within ±3.7 percentage points. Results for likely voters are statistically significant within ±3.8 percentage points.