All
references must be sourced WNBC/Marist Poll
Contact: Dr. Lee M. Miringoff
Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho
845.575.5050
National Poll: Campaign 2008
Is
This
WNBC/Marist Poll reports:
·
Voters divide over whether they would support a
woman nominated by one of the two major political parties for president. 26% of registered voters say they are likely
to support a woman for president regardless of whether she is a Democrat or a
Republican. At the other extreme, 28%
would not support a woman for the United States’ top job regardless of which
political party nominated her. 25% would
support a woman if she became the Democratic nominee for president, and 21%
would support her if she were the Republican nominee.
Question Wording: If the Democratic/Republican Party nominates a woman for president in 2008, are you very likely, likely, not very likely, or not likely at all to vote for her?
|
Registered
Voters |
Very Likely or Likely if
Democrat or Republican |
Very Likely or Likely
Only if Democrat |
Very Likely or Likely
Only if Republican |
Not Likely Regardless if
Democrat or Republican |
|
October 2005 |
26% |
25% |
21% |
28% |
·
Not surprisingly, women are more likely to pull
the lever for a female presidential candidate than men. 31% of women would support a woman for
president regardless of whether she is a Democrat or a Republican. 33% of men would not support a woman for the
country’s highest office no matter which party nominated her. But age matters. 41% of women younger than forty-five years
old would support a female presidential candidate regardless of the party who
nominated her compared with 28% of their forty-five and older
counterparts. Only 26% of men younger
than forty-five years old would not vote for a woman president regardless of her political party compared with 36% of men
who are forty-five years of age or older.
|
Registered
Voters |
Very Likely or Likely if
Democrat or Republican |
Very Likely or Likely
Only if Democrat |
Very Likely or Likely
Only if Republican |
Not Likely Regardless if
Democrat or Republican |
|
Men |
19% |
25% |
23% |
33% |
|
Women |
31% |
26% |
20% |
23% |
|
Democrat |
27% |
50% |
2% |
21% |
|
Republican |
19% |
1% |
51% |
29% |
|
Independent |
30% |
20% |
17% |
33% |
|
Under 45 |
34% |
25% |
20% |
21% |
|
Men |
24% |
28% |
22% |
26% |
|
Women |
41% |
24% |
19% |
16% |
|
45 or older |
22% |
26% |
21% |
31% |
|
Men |
16% |
24% |
24% |
36% |
|
Women |
28% |
27% |
19% |
26% |
·
New York Senator Hillary Clinton has a
commanding lead over the field of potential Democratic candidates nationwide for
the party’s 2008 presidential nomination.
Question Wording: If the 2008 Democratic presidential primary were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:
Democrats
|
October 2005 |
May 2005 |
February 2005 |
|
Hillary Clinton |
41% |
40% |
39% |
|
John Kerry |
17% |
18% |
21% |
|
John Edwards |
14% |
16% |
15% |
|
Joe Biden |
5% |
7% |
5% |
|
Wesley Clark |
3% |
4% |
4% |
|
Evan Bayh |
2% |
<1% |
1% |
|
Tom Vilsack |
1% |
<1% |
<1% |
|
Mark Warner |
1% |
<1% |
1% |
|
Other |
n.a. |
3% |
4% |
|
Undecided |
16% |
12% |
10% |
· Hillary Clinton’s presidential prospects divide the national electorate right down the middle. 48% of registered voters want to see her run for president in 2008 including 74% of Democrats. 49% of registered voters do not want to see Hillary Clinton enter the presidential sweepstakes including 79% of Republicans. Independent voters evenly divide. 49% want to see her run, and 49% do not. Voters forty-five years of age or older are not as encouraging of a run for the White House by Hillary Clinton than are younger voters.
Question Wording: Do you want Hillary Clinton to run for president in 2008 or not?
|
Registered
Voters |
Yes, Run |
No, Don’t Run |
Unsure |
|
October 2005 |
48% |
49% |
3% |
|
May 2005 |
49% |
48% |
3% |
|
February 2005 |
46% |
49% |
5% |
|
December 2004 |
38% |
50% |
12% |
|
October 2005 |
Yes, Run |
No, Don’t
Run |
Unsure |
|
Democrat |
74% |
23% |
3% |
|
Republican |
17% |
79% |
4% |
|
Independent |
49% |
49% |
2% |
|
Men |
45% |
52% |
3% |
|
Women |
51% |
46% |
3% |
|
Under 45 |
59% |
40% |
1% |
|
45 and older |
44% |
52% |
4% |
· Although 46% of registered voters think Senator Clinton is about right on the ideological spectrum, 39% say she is too liberal. These two views of Hillary Clinton are colored by partisan lenses. 78% of Democrats think she is ideologically well positioned. 74% of Republicans characterize her as too liberal. Independent voters divide. 38% of these voters think she is too liberal, and 41% believe her views are about right.
Question
Wording: Do you think Hillary
Clinton is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
|
Registered
Voters |
Too Liberal |
Too Conservative |
About Right |
Unsure |
|
October 2005 |
39% |
6% |
46% |
9% |
|
Democrat |
12% |
6% |
78% |
4% |
|
Republican |
74% |
5% |
13% |
8% |
|
Independent |
38% |
7% |
41% |
14% |
·
Although she has said she is not interested,
U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is a top contender for the 2008 Republican
presidential nomination. Rice receives 21%
among registered Republicans and Republican leaning independents along with former
New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani.
Senator John McCain follows with 19%.
Florida Governor Jeb Bush, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Senator
George Allen, Senator Sam Brownback, Senator Bill Frist, New York Governor
George Pataki, Senator Chuck Hagel, Congressman Tom Tancredo, and Massachusetts
Governor Mitt Romney trail with single digit support. 17% of Republicans are undecided.
Question Wording: If the 2008 Republican presidential primary were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:
Republicans
|
October
2005 |
|
Condoleezza Rice |
21% |
|
Rudy Giuliani |
21% |
|
John McCain |
19% |
|
Jeb Bush |
5% |
|
Newt Gingrich |
5% |
|
George Allen |
4% |
|
Sam Brownback |
2% |
|
Bill Frist |