Contact: Dr. Lee M. Miringoff
Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho
845.575.5050
National Poll: Campaign 2008
This
Marist College Institute for Public Opinion poll reports:
·
New York Senator Hillary Clinton outpaces the field
of potential Democratic candidates nationwide for the party’s 2008 presidential
nomination.
Question Wording: If the 2008 Democratic presidential primary were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:
Democrats
|
May 2005 |
February 2005 |
|
Hillary Clinton |
40% |
39% |
|
John Kerry |
18% |
21% |
|
John Edwards |
16% |
15% |
|
Joe Biden |
7% |
5% |
|
Wesley Clark |
4% |
4% |
|
Russ Feingold |
2% |
2% |
|
Bill Richardson |
1% |
2% |
|
Mark Warner |
<1% |
1% |
|
Evan Bayh |
<1% |
1% |
|
Tom Vilsack |
<1% |
<1% |
|
Undecided |
12% |
10% |
· Hillary Clinton remains a polarizing figure nationwide. 72% of Democrats would like to see her run for president in 2008, but 76% of Republicans do not want her to make the race. Independent voters are divided. She also faces a tougher audience among voters forty five years of age or older than she does among younger voters.
Question Wording: Do you want Hillary Clinton to run for president in 2008 or not?
|
Registered
Voters |
Yes, Run |
No, Don’t Run |
Unsure |
|
May 2005 |
49% |
48% |
3% |
|
February 2005 |
46% |
49% |
5% |
|
December 2004 |
38% |
50% |
12% |
|
May 2005 |
Yes, Run |
No, Don’t
Run |
Unsure |
|
Democrats |
72% |
23% |
5% |
|
Republicans |
22% |
76% |
2% |
|
Independents |
51% |
46% |
3% |
|
Men |
44% |
52% |
4% |
|
Women |
54% |
44% |
2% |
|
Younger than 45 |
61% |
38% |
1% |
|
45 and older |
44% |
52% |
4% |
·
Former New
York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is the early leader for the 2008 Republican
presidential nomination although 24% of Republicans and Republican leaning
Independents remain undecided. Giuliani
receives the support nationwide of 27% followed by Senator John McCain with 20%.
Florida Governor Jeb Bush receives 10%.
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Senator Rick Santorum, Senator Bill
Frist, New York Governor George Pataki, Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, Senator
Chuck Hagel, Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour, Colorado Governor Bill Owens, Senator
George Allen and Senator Sam Brownback round out the field.
Question Wording: If the 2008 Republican presidential primary were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:
Republicans
|
May
2005 |
February
2005 |
|
Rudy Giuliani |
27% |
25% |
|
John McCain |
20% |
21% |
|
Jeb Bush |
10% |
7% |
|
Newt Gingrich |
8% |
5% |
|
Rick Santorum |
3% |
1% |
|
Bill Frist |
3% |
3% |
|
George Pataki |
2% |
1% |
|
Mitt Romney |
1% |
1% |
|
Chuck Hagel |
1% |
<1% |
|
Haley Barbour |
1% |
n.a. |
|
Bill Owens |
<1% |
2% |
|
George Allen |
<1% |
<1% |
|
Sam
Brownback |
<1% |
n.a. |
|
Other |
n.a. |
14% |
|
Undecided |
24% |
20% |
·
49% of registered voters nationwide would like
to see Rudy Giuliani run for president in 2008, a turnaround from a similar
survey done in February. His standing
among voters has continued to improve since December when the controversy surrounding
the nomination of former New York City Police Commissioner Bernard Kerik to
secretary of Homeland Security was at its height. 71% of Republicans would like to see the former
Question Wording: Do you want Rudy Giuliani to run for president in 2008 or not?
|
Registered Voters |
Yes, Run |
No, Don’t Run |
Unsure |
|
May 2005 |
49% |
43% |
8% |
|
February 2005 |
42% |
47% |
11% |
|
December 2004 |
32% |
42% |
26% |
|
May 2005 |
Yes, Run |
No, Don’t Run |
Unsure |
|
Democrats |
28% |
64% |
8% |
|
Republicans |
71% |
22% |
7% |
|
Independents |
48% |
43% |
9% |
· 51% of registered voters would like to see Senator McCain run for president in 2008. John McCain is less polarizing nationally than either Rudy Giuliani or Hillary Clinton. Although 52% of Democrats would rather Republican McCain not join the fray, this is considerably fewer than the 64% of Democrats who do not want Giuliani to make a run and the 76% of Republicans who do not want to see a Hillary Clinton presidential candidacy. In addition, 52% of Independent voters would like to see John McCain make a run for the White House in 2008.
Question Wording: Do you want John McCain to run for president in 2008 or not?
|
Registered Voters |
Yes, Run |
No, Don’t Run |
Unsure |
|
May
2005 |
51% |
39% |
10% |
|
Democrats |
38% |
52% |
10% |
|
Republicans |
65% |
27% |
8% |
|
Independents |
52% |
36% |
12% |
· Despite Senator McCain’s second place standing in the Republican primary, he is a stronger candidate than Rudy Giuliani nationwide. When posed in hypothetical match-ups against the leading Democrats, John McCain bests both John Kerry and Hillary Clinton. McCain is numerically inches ahead in a competitive contest against former North Carolina Senator John Edwards.
· Rudy Giuliani runs neck and neck with these top three Democrats and fails to reach 50% against any of them.
· For the Democrats, it’s John Edwards, not either of the two marquis names of Kerry or Clinton who runs strongest against the top Republicans. Edwards is numerically three points ahead of Rudy Giuliani and three points behind John McCain. Statistically both contests are a tossup.
Question wording: If the 2008 presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:
|
Registered Voters |
John McCain |
John Kerry |
Undecided |
|
May 2005 |
51% |
41% |
8% |
|
|
Rudy Giuliani |
John Kerry |
Undecided |
|
May 2005 |
48% |
46% |
6% |
|
Registered Voters |
John McCain |
Hillary Clinton |
Undecided |
|
May 2005 |
50% |
42% |
8% |
|
|
Rudy Giuliani |
Hillary Clinton |
Undecided |