National Poll:
Campaign 2004 – Election Eve
Results
Contact: Dr. Lee M. Miringoff
Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho
845.575.5050
This Marist College Institute for Public Opinion poll reports:
· Final poll: Senator John Kerry receives the support of 50% of likely voters nationwide including those leaning towards a candidate and President George Bush receives 49%. Ralph Nader has less than 1%, and 1% are undecided. Without leaners, Kerry has 50% among likely voters compared with 48% for Bush. Kerry and Bush each have the support of 48% of registered voters.
Question Wording: If tomorrow's presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:
Likely voters
|
Bush/Cheney Republican |
Kerry/Edwards Democrat |
Nader/Camejo Independent[1] |
Undecided |
|
Monday w/ Leaners |
49% |
50% |
<1% |
1% |
|
Monday |
48% |
50% |
<1% |
2% |
|
Sunday
w/ Leaners |
48% |
49% |
1% |
2% |
|
Sunday |
48% |
49% |
<1% |
3% |
Registered
voters
|
Bush/Cheney Republican |
Kerry/Edwards Democrat |
Nader/Camejo Independent |
Undecided |
|
Monday |
48% |
48% |
1% |
3% |
|
Sunday |
48% |
48% |
<1% |
4% |
·
Voters’ perceptions
of the candidates: When voters are
asked to choose between Bush and Kerry, more voters continue to see Bush as a
strong leader and as more likely to prevent future terror attacks. Voters divide over which candidate they think
is honest and trustworthy and whether Bush or Kerry has a better plan for
Question Wording: Please
tell me whether each of the following statements applies more to George Bush or
John Kerry:
|
|
Registered
Voters |
Bush |
Kerry |
Unsure |
|
He is a strong leader |
Monday |
55% |
42% |
3% |
|
October 21, 2004 |
53% |
43% |
4% |
|
|
He will be more likely to prevent
future terrorist attacks on the |
Monday |
52% |
40% |
8% |
|
Sunday |
52% |
42% |
6% |
|
|
He
is honest and trustworthy |
Monday |
48% |
46% |
6% |
|
October
21, 2004 |
51% |
42% |
7% |
|
|
He
has a better plan for |
Monday |
48% |
46% |
6% |
|
Sunday |
50% |
45% |
5% |
|
|
He
will be more likely to improve the economy |
Monday |
44% |
53% |
3% |
|
Sunday |
43% |
53% |
4% |
·
Voters’ intensity of support for their
presidential choice is strong: Overall,
84% of registered voters strongly support their choice for president, and 13%
say they somewhat support their candidate.
Just 2% say they might vote differently on Election Day. 83% of Bush backers are strongly committed to
him, and 84% of Kerry supporters say they are firmly committed to their choice.
Question Wording: Would you say that you strongly support (candidate), somewhat support him, or do you think that you might vote differently on Election Day?
|
Registered voters |
Strongly Support |
Somewhat Support |
Might Vote Differently |
Unsure |
|
Monday |
84% |
13% |
2% |
1% |
|
Sunday |
86% |
12% |
2% |
<1% |
|
Bush
supporters |
|
|
|
|
|
Monday |
83% |
15% |
1% |
1% |
|
Sunday |
87% |
11% |
2% |
<1% |
|
Kerry
supporters |
|
|
|
|
|
Monday |
84% |
13% |
2% |
1% |
|
Sunday |
85% |
12% |
3% |
<1% |
· Direction of the country: 52% of voters think the country is headed in the wrong direction and 45% think it is headed in the right direction.
Question Wording: In general, thinking about the way things are going in the country, do you feel things are going in the right direction or that things are going in the wrong direction?
Registered
voters
|
Right
Direction |
Wrong
Direction |
Unsure |
|
Monday |
45% |
52% |
3% |
|
Sunday |
45% |
53% |
2% |
·
Voters squarely divide over George Bush’s
performance as president: 49% of
registered voters nationwide approve of the job President Bush is doing in
office, and 49% disapprove.
Question Wording: Do you approve or disapprove of the job George Bush is doing as president?
Registered voters
|
Approve |
Disapprove |
Unsure |
|
Monday |
49% |
49% |
2% |
|
Sunday |
50% |
48% |
2% |
|
October
21, 2004 |
49% |
48% |
3% |
|
October
7, 2004 |
49% |
48% |
3% |
|
September
2004 |
49% |
49% |
2% |
|
August
2004 |
49% |
47% |
4% |
|
July
2004 |
49% |
48% |
3% |
|
April
2004 |
51% |
47% |
2% |
|
March
2004 |
52% |
45% |
3% |
|
November
2003 |
53% |
42% |
5% |
|
April
2003 |
70% |
23% |
7% |
|
February
2003 |
56% |
34% |
10% |
|
January
2003 |
57% |
34% |
9% |
|
October
2002 |
65% |
27% |
8% |
|
April
2002 |
74% |
17% |
9% |
|
January
2002 |
81% |
11% |
8% |
|
November
2001 |
85% |
8% |
7% |
|
March
2001 |
50% |
24% |
26% |
|
January 2001 |
50% |
20% |
30% |
· Voters’ interest in election is high: Interest in the 2004 election for president is up from 2000. 81% of registered voters report that they are very interested in this election compared with 58% who said so four years ago.
Question Wording: Using
the numbers one to five, with one meaning very interested and five meaning not
interested at all, how interested are you in the presidential election?
|
Registered voters |
Very Interested 1 |
2 |
|