National Poll:
Campaign 2004 – Sunday Night
Results
(Sunday/Monday Results To Be
Released Tomorrow)
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Monday November 1, 2004
Contact: Dr. Lee M. Miringoff
Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho
845.575.5050
This Marist College Institute for Public Opinion poll reports:
·
It’s stride for stride in the homestretch: President George Bush and Senator John Kerry remain
neck and neck in a nationwide poll conducted Sunday night. Bush and Kerry each receive the support of
48% of registered voters. Ralph Nader
has less than 1%, and 4% are undecided. Among
those likely to vote, Bush has the support of 48% compared with 49% for Kerry. Nader is at less than 1%, and only 3% are
undecided.
Question Wording: If Tuesday's presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:
Registered
voters
|
Bush/Cheney Republican |
Kerry/Edwards Democrat |
Nader/Camejo Independent[1] |
Undecided |
|
November 1, 2004 |
48% |
48% |
<1% |
4% |
|
October 21, 2004 |
47% |
47% |
1% |
5% |
|
October 7, 2004 |
47% |
46% |
1% |
6% |
|
September 2004 |
47% |
45% |
3% |
5% |
|
August 2004 |
44% |
45% |
3% |
8% |
|
July 2004 |
44% |
45% |
2% |
9% |
Likely voters
|
Bush/Cheney Republican |
Kerry/Edwards Democrat |
Nader/Camejo Independent |
Undecided |
|
November
1, 2004 |
48% |
49% |
<1% |
3% |
|
w/ Leaners |
48% |
49% |
1% |
2% |
|
October
21, 2004 |
48% |
47% |
1% |
4% |
|
w/ Leaners |
49% |
48% |
1% |
2% |
October 7, 2004
|
49% |
46% |
1% |
4% |
September 2004
|
50% |
44% |
2% |
4% |
August 2004
|
47% |
47% |
1% |
5% |
July 2004
|
46% |
47% |
1% |
6% |
·
Voters’
choice on the key campaign issues: When
voters are asked to choose between Bush and Kerry on the key campaign issues, more
voters continue to see President Bush as more likely to prevent future terror
attacks and as having a better plan for
Question Wording: Please tell me whether each of the
following statements applies more to George Bush or John Kerry:
|
|
Registered Voters |
Bush |
Kerry |
Unsure |
|
He
will be more likely to prevent future terrorist attacks on the |
November 1, 2004 |
52% |
42% |
6% |
|
October
21, 2004 |
53% |
39% |
8% |
|
|
October
7, 2004 |
57% |
36% |
7% |
|
|
He
has a better plan for |
November 1, 2004 |
50% |
45% |
5% |
|
October
21, 2004 |
50% |
43% |
7% |
|
|
October
7, 2004 |
47% |
46% |
7% |
|
|
He
will be more likely to improve the economy |
November 1, 2004 |
43% |
53% |
4% |
|
October
21, 2004 |
43% |
50% |
7% |
|
|
October
7, 2004 |
43% |
52% |
5% |
·
Intensity of support for both presidential candidates
is strong: Overall, 86% of
registered voters strongly support their choice for president, and 12% say they
somewhat support their candidate. Just 2%
say they might vote differently on Election Day. 87% of Bush backers are strongly committed to
him, not statistically different from the 85% of Kerry supporters who say they
are firmly committed to their choice.
Question Wording: Would you say that you strongly support (candidate), somewhat support him, or do you think that you might vote differently on Election Day?
|
Registered voters |
Strongly Support |
Somewhat Support |
Might Vote Differently |
Unsure |
|
November 1, 2004 |
86% |
12% |
2% |
<1% |
|
October 21, 2004 |
81% |
15% |
4% |
<1% |
|
Bush
supporters |
|
|
|
|
|
November 1,
2004 |
87% |
11% |
2% |
<1% |
|
October 21,
2004 |
85% |
11% |
4% |
<1% |
|
Kerry
supporters |
|
|
|
|
|
November 1,
2004 |
85% |
12% |
3% |
<1% |
|
October 21,
2004 |
78% |
18% |
4% |
<1% |
· Referendum on the incumbent: 84% of registered voters who support George Bush say they are voting for him because they feel positively towards the president. In contrast, John Kerry backers divide over whether they see their vote as a vote for Kerry or whether they see it as a vote against the president.
Question Wording: Did you choose (George Bush/John Kerry) because you are for him or because you are against (George Bush/John Kerry)?
|
Registered
Voters |
For Candidate |
Against
Candidate |
Unsure |
|
November 1, 2004 |
67% |
31% |
2% |
|
October 21, 2004 |
64% |
33% |
3% |
|
Bush supporters |
|
|
|
|
November 1, 2004 |
84% |
14% |
2% |
|
October 21, 2004 |
80% |
18% |
2% |
|
Kerry supporters |
|
|
|
|
November 1, 2004 |
51% |
48% |
1% |
|
October 21, 2004 |
49% |
48% |
3% |
· Direction of the country: 53% of voters think the country is headed in the wrong direction and 45% think it is headed in the right direction.
Question Wording: In general, thinking about the way things are going in the country, do you feel things are going in the right direction or that things are going in the wrong direction?
Registered
voters
|
Right
Direction |
Wrong
Direction |
Unsure |
|
November 1,
2004 |
45% |
53% |
2% |
|
October 21,
2004 |
44% |
54% |
2% |
·
Majority sees President Bush as the frontrunner: 52% of registered voters think President Bush
is likely to be re-elected.
Question Wording: Regardless of whom you are planning to vote for, who do you think will win the election for president?
Registered voters
|
Bush/Cheney Republican |
Kerry/Edwards Democrat |
Nader/Camejo Independent |
Unsure |
|
November 1, 2004 |
52% |