National Poll:
Campaign 2004
Contact: Dr. Lee M. Miringoff
Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho
845.575.5050
This Marist College Institute for Public Opinion poll reports:
·
Presidential contest thisclose: President George Bush and Senator John Kerry remain
neck and neck in a nationwide poll conducted Sunday through Tuesday. Each candidate receives the support of 47% of
registered voters. Nader has 1%, and 5% are
undecided. Among those likely to vote, Bush
has the support of 48% compared with 47% for Kerry. Ralph Nader receives 1%, and only 4% are
undecided.
Question Wording: If November's presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:
Registered
voters
|
Bush/Cheney Republican |
Kerry/Edwards Democrat |
Nader/Camejo Independent[1] |
Undecided |
|
October 21, 2004 |
47% |
47% |
1% |
5% |
|
Battleground states[2] |
43% |
50% |
2% |
5% |
|
October 7, 2004 |
47% |
46% |
1% |
6% |
|
September 2004 |
47% |
45% |
3% |
5% |
|
August 2004 |
44% |
45% |
3% |
8% |
|
July 2004 |
44% |
45% |
2% |
9% |
Likely voters
|
Bush/Cheney Republican |
Kerry/Edwards Democrat |
Nader/Camejo Independent |
Undecided |
|
October
21, 2004 |
48% |
47% |
1% |
4% |
|
w/ Leaners |
49% |
48% |
1% |
2% |
|
Battleground states |
43% |
51% |
2% |
4% |
October 7, 2004
|
49% |
46% |
1% |
4% |
September 2004
|
50% |
44% |
2% |
4% |
August 2004
|
47% |
47% |
1% |
5% |
July 2004
|
46% |
47% |
1% |
6% |
·
Barometers point to polarized electorate and
signal close contest: An “under the
hood” look at the survey results underscores how polarized the electorate is. Both President Bush and Senator Kerry have
strong support among the party faithful and garner about the same proportion of
partisans from their opposing camps.
Independents, who hold the balance, divide in their choice for
president. The survey results also highlight
the relevance of the president’s job performance rating which, as detailed
later, hovers at 49%. It is a strong
indicator of voter choice. How voters
view the country’s direction is another factor that shapes their decisions.
Voting Groups
October 21, 2004 |
Bush/Cheney Republican |
Kerry/Edwards Democrat |
Nader/Camejo Independent |
Undecided |
|
Democrats |
8% |
88% |
1% |
3% |
|
Republicans |
93% |
5% |
<1% |
2% |
|
Independents |
43% |
45% |
1% |
11% |
|
Approve Bush as president |
91% |
4% |
<1% |
5% |
|
Disapprove Bush as pres. |
3% |
91% |
2% |
4% |
|
Country right direction |
87% |
9% |
<1% |
4% |
|
Country wrong direction |
14% |
79% |
1% |
6% |
|
East |
44% |
52% |
1% |
3% |
|
Central |
35% |
58% |
1% |
6% |
|
South |
53% |
41% |
<1% |
6% |
|
West |
54% |
40% |
<1% |
6% |
|
Big city |
37% |
57% |
<1% |
6% |
|
Small city |
49% |
46% |
1% |
4% |
|
Suburban |
53% |
41% |
1% |
5% |
|
Small town |
38% |
55% |
1% |
6% |
|
Rural |
61% |
32% |
1% |
6% |
|
Liberal |
12% |
82% |
1% |
5% |
|
Moderate |
41% |
52% |
1% |
6% |
|
Conservative |
72% |
23% |
1% |
4% |
|
Not college graduate |
45% |
48% |
1% |
6% |
|
College graduate |
50% |
45% |
1% |
4% |
|
Less than $50,000 |
41% |
52% |
1% |
6% |
|
$50,000 or more |
53% |
42% |
1% |
4% |
|
Men |
52% |
42% |
1% |
5% |
|
Women |
42% |
52% |
<1% |
6% |
|
18 to 30 years old |
40% |
50% |
3% |
7% |
|
31 to 60 years old |
46% |
48% |
1% |
5% |
|
Over 60 years old |
54% |
41% |
<1% |
5% |
|
Married |
52% |
42% |
1% |
5% |
|
Not married |
39% |
55% |
1% |
5% |
|
First time voters |
35% |
53% |
3% |
9% |
|
Veteran HH |
54% |
42% |
1% |
3% |
|
Evangelical Christian |
60% |
34% |
1% |
5% |
|
Att. Religious serv. often |
56% |
36% |
1% |
7% |
|
Does not attend often |
41% |
55% |
<1% |