National Poll:
The Candidates and the
Campaign 2004
Contact: Dr. Lee M. Miringoff
Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho
845.575.5050
This Marist College Institute for Public Opinion poll reports:
·
Bush edges Kerry: Although neither President George Bush nor
Senator John Kerry has a clear advantage among registered voters, Bush holds an
edge over Kerry among those likely to vote on Election Day. Bush has the support of 47% of registered
voters nationwide compared with 45% for Kerry.
Ralph Nader receives 3%, and only 5% are undecided. Among likely voters, Bush receives 50% and
Kerry receives 44%. Nader has 2% and 4%
of likely voters are undecided.
Question Wording: If November's presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:
Registered
voters
|
Bush/Cheney Republican |
Kerry/Edwards Democrat |
Nader/Camejo Independent |
Undecided |
|
September 2004 |
47% |
45% |
3% |
5% |
|
With leaners |
48% |
45% |
3% |
4% |
|
Battleground states[1] |
48% |
45% |
1% |
6% |
|
August 2004 |
44% |
45% |
3% |
8% |
|
July 2004 |
44% |
45% |
2% |
9% |
Likely voters
|
|
|
|
|
|
September 2004 |
50% |
44% |
2% |
4% |
|
August 2004 |
47% |
47% |
1% |
5% |
|
July 2004 |
46% |
47% |
1% |
6% |
Voting Groups
September
2004 |
Bush/Cheney Republican |
Kerry/Edwards Democrat |
Nader/Camejo Independent |
Undecided |
|
Democrats |
10% |
86% |
2% |
2% |
|
Republicans |
91% |
5% |
1% |
3% |
|
Independents |
44% |
39% |
6% |
11% |
|
East |
40% |
49% |
4% |
7% |
|
Central |
47% |
45% |
2% |
6% |
|
South |
53% |
42% |
2% |
3% |
|
West |
44% |
45% |
4% |
7% |
|
Big
city |
39% |
56% |
3% |
2% |
|
Small
city |
44% |
46% |
4% |
6% |
|
Suburban |
49% |
44% |
3% |
4% |
|
Small
town |
48% |
43% |
3% |
6% |
|
Rural |
55% |
34% |
2% |
9% |
|
Liberal |
17% |
80% |
2% |
1% |
|
Moderate |
37% |
50% |
5% |
8% |
|
Conservative |
73% |
21% |
1% |
5% |
|
Not
college graduate |
46% |
45% |
3% |
6% |
|
College
graduate |
48% |
46% |
2% |
4% |
|
Less
than $50,000 |
42% |
49% |
4% |
5% |
|
$50,000
or more |
53% |
40% |
1% |
6% |
|
Men |
47% |
42% |
5% |
6% |
|
Women |
46% |
48% |
1% |
5% |
|
|
35% |
56% |
3% |
6% |
|
Veteran
HH |
48% |
44% |
3% |
5% |
|
Access
to Internet |
50% |
41% |
4% |
5% |
|
Gun
owners |
59% |
34% |
1% |
6% |
|
Evangelical
Christian |
65% |
29% |
2% |
4% |
|
Att. religious serv. often |
56% |
38% |
2% |
4% |
|
Does
not attend often |
37% |
52% |
4% |
7% |
|
Money
worries - always |
36% |
55% |
4% |
5% |
|
No
money worries |
57% |
35% |
1% |
7% |
·
Most voters strongly back their choice: Overall, 72% of registered voters strongly
support their choice for president, and 20% say they somewhat support their
candidate. Just 7% say they might vote
differently on Election Day.
Question Wording: Would you say that you strongly support (candidate), somewhat support him, or do you think that you might vote differently on Election Day?
|
Registered voters |
Strongly Support |
Somewhat Support |
Might Vote Differently |
Unsure |
|
September 2004 |
72% |
20% |
7% |
1% |
|
Bush supporters |
|
|
|
|
|
September 2004 |
77% |
18% |
4% |
1% |
|
August 2004 |
78% |
14% |
7% |
1% |
|
July 2004 |
73% |
20% |
5% |
2% |
|
Kerry supporters |
|
|
|
|
|
September 2004 |
70% |
21% |
8% |
1% |
|
August 2004 |
70% |
22% |
6% |