National Poll:
The Candidates and the
Campaign
2004
Contact: Dr. Lee M. Miringoff
Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho
Marist College
845.575.5050
This Marist College Institute for Public Opinion poll reports:
· Convention bounce not even a blip: John Kerry and George Bush are still neck and neck nationwide among registered voters. Kerry has the support of 45% of the national electorate compared with 44% for Bush. Ralph Nader receives 3%, and 8% are undecided. In the 17 battleground states, Kerry receives the support of 49% of registered voters and Bush receives 42%. [1]
Question Wording: If November's presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:
Registered
voters
|
Bush/Cheney Republican |
Kerry/Edwards Democrat |
Nader/Camejo Independent |
Undecided |
|
August 2004 |
44% |
45% |
3% |
8% |
|
With
leaners |
46% |
47% |
3% |
4% |
|
Battleground states |
42% |
49% |
2% |
7% |
|
July 2004 |
44% |
45% |
2% |
9% |
|
April 2004 (Pres. Only) |
47% |
43% |
5% |
5% |
Likely voters
|
Bush/Cheney Republican |
Kerry/Edwards Democrat |
Nader/Camejo Independent |
Undecided |
|
August 2004 |
47% |
47% |
1% |
5% |
|
July 2004 |
46% |
47% |
1% |
6% |
Voting Groups
August
2004 |
Bush/Cheney Republican |
Kerry/Edwards Democrat |
Nader/Camejo Independent |
Undecided |
|
Democrats |
10% |
85% |
1% |
4% |
|
Republicans |
87% |
7% |
1% |
5% |
|
Independents |
42% |
39% |
5% |
14% |
|
East |
36% |
53% |
2% |
9% |
|
Central |
43% |
45% |
3% |
9% |
|
South |
49% |
40% |
2% |
9% |
|
West |
45% |
47% |
2% |
6% |
|
Big
city |
33% |
57% |
2% |
8% |
|
Small
city |
46% |
45% |
1% |
8% |
|
Suburban |
47% |
41% |
4% |
8% |
|
Small
town |
47% |
40% |
3% |
10% |
|
Rural |
53% |
36% |
1% |
10% |
|
Liberal |
19% |
69% |
3% |
9% |
|
Moderate |
42% |
49% |
2% |
7% |
|
Conservative |
63% |
25% |
3% |
9% |
|
Not
college graduate |
44% |
45% |
2% |
9% |
|
College
graduate |
45% |
46% |
2% |
7% |
|
Less
than $50,000 |
40% |
49% |
3% |
8% |
|
$50,000
or more |
49% |
41% |
3% |
7% |
|
Men |
51% |
40% |
3% |
6% |
|
Women |
38% |
50% |
2% |
10% |
|
Union |
41% |
49% |
3% |
7% |
|
Veteran
HH |
47% |
41% |
4% |
8% |
|
Access
to Internet |
47% |
42% |
2% |
9% |
|
Gun
owners |
56% |
32% |
3% |
9% |
|
Att.
religious serv. often |
49% |
42% |
3% |
6% |
|
Does
not attend often |
40% |
48% |
2% |
10% |
|
Watched
DNC |
33% |
59% |
2% |
6% |
|
Did
not watch DNC |
60% |
25% |
3% |
12% |
|
Money
worries - always |
25% |
62% |
2% |
11% |
|
No
money worries |
58% |
30% |
2% |
10% |
· Most voters strongly support their choice: 72% of registered voters strongly support their choice for president and 19% say they somewhat support their candidate. Just 7% say they might vote differently on Election Day.
Question Wording: Would you say that you strongly support (candidate) somewhat support him, or do you think that you might vote differently on Election Day?
|
Registered voters |
Strongly Support |
Somewhat Support |
Might Vote Differently |
Unsure |
|
August
2004 |
72% |
19% |
7% |
2% |
|
Bush supporters |
|
|
|
|
|
August 2004 |
78% |
14% |
7% |
1% |
|
July 2004 |
73% |
20% |
5% |
2% |
|
Kerry supporters |
|
|
|
|
|
August 2004 |
70% |
22% |
6% |
2% |
|
July 2004 |
67% |
23% |
8% |
2% |
|
July
2004 |
69% |
22% |
7% |
2% |
|
April
2004 |
69% |
22% |
8% |
1% |
· What the convention really meant for John Kerry: The biggest change in voters’ perceptions of John Kerry as a result of the Democratic National Convention is that a growing number thinks he has a vision for the future, is respected by leaders throughout the world, and is ready to be president.
|
John Kerry…
|
Kerry’s Post-convention
Change
|
Registered Voters
|
Agree |
Disagree |
Unsure |
|
Has a vision for the future |
+17 |
August
2004 |
63% |
30% |