National Poll:

The Candidates and the Campaign

2004

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:  Monday July 19, 2004

Contact:         Dr. Lee M. Miringoff

Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho

Marist College

845.575.5050

 

This Marist College Institute for Public Opinion poll reports:

 

·       Close contest:  One week before the start of the Democratic Convention, John Kerry and George Bush are tightly matched nationwide among registered voters.  Kerry has the support of 45% of the national electorate compared with 44% for Bush.  Ralph Nader receives 2%, and 9% are undecided.  In the 17 battleground states, Kerry receives the support of 47% of registered voters and Bush receives 42%. [1]

 

Question Wording: If November's presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:

 

 
Registered voters

Bush/Cheney

Republican

Kerry/Edwards

Democrat

Nader/Camejo

Independent

 

Undecided

July 2004

44%

45%

2%

  9%

  With leaners

46%

47%

3%

  4%

  Battleground states

42%

47%

2%

  9%

April 2004 (Pres. Only)

47%

43%

5%

  5%

 

Voting Groups

July 2004

Bush/Cheney

Republican

Kerry/Edwards

Democrat

Nader/Camejo

Independent

 

Undecided

Likely voters

46%

47%

1%

  6%

Democrats

10%

84%

1%

  5%

Republicans

87%

8%

1%

  4%

Independents

36%

42%

6%

16%

East

38%

50%

2%

10%

Central

43%

45%

2%

10%

South

50%

42%

3%

  5%

West

42%

46%

1%

11%

Big city

37%

46%

6%

11%

Small city

43%

47%

1%

  9%

Suburban

42%

50%

1%

  7%

Small town

43%

45%

2%

10%

Rural

56%

37%

2%

  5%

Liberal

16%

74%

3%

  7%

Moderate

36%

53%

3%

  8%

Conservative

69%

22%

1%

  8%

Not college graduate

42%

46%

3%

  9%

College graduate

48%

43%

2%

  7%

Less than $50,000

34%

54%

2%

10%

$50,000 or more

52%

41%

1%

  6%

Men

45%

48%

2%

  5%

Women

43%

43%

2%

12%

Union

32%

57%

1%

10%

Veteran HH

45%

45%

2%

  8%

Access to Internet

47%

44%

2%

  7%

Gun owners

56%

36%

1%

  7%

Att. religious serv. often

53%

38%

2%

  7%

Does not attend often

35%

52%

3%

10%

Talk about election a lot

40%

54%

2%

  4%

Don’t talk about election

44%

40%

3%

13%

Money worries - always

26%

59%

4%

11%

No money worries

68%

26%

3%

  3%

Saw Fahrenheit 911

  9%

88%

0%

  3%

Did not see movie

47%

42%

2%

  9%

Plan to see movie

22%

66%

3%

  9%

Do not plan to see movie

58%

32%

2%

  8%

 

·       Intensity of support:  69% of registered voters strongly support their choice for president and 22% say they somewhat support their candidate.  Just 7% say they might vote differently on Election Day. 

 

Question Wording:  Would you say that you strongly support (candidate) somewhat support him, or do you think that you might vote differently on Election Day?

 

 

Registered voters

Strongly Support

Somewhat Support

Might Vote Differently

 

Unsure

July 2004

69%

22%

7%

2%

  Bush supporters

73%

20%

5%

2%

  Kerry supporters

67%

23%

8%

2%

April 2004

69%

22%

8%

1%

 

·       And the winner is…?   Neither Bush nor Kerry is seen as the likely winner by a majority of voters.

 

Question Wording: Regardless of whom you are planning to vote for, who do you think will win the election for president?

 

 
Registered voters

Bush/Cheney

Republican

Kerry/Edwards

Democrat

Nader/Camejo

Independent

 

Unsure

July 2004

45%

40%

1%

14%

  Bush supporters

82%

8%

0%

10%

  Kerry supporters

14%

74%

0%

12%

  Undecided

29%

28%

4%

39%

April 2004 (Pres. Only)

52%

37%

n.a.

11%

 

·       Most voters think there’s a lot at stake in this presidential election:  90% of registered voters think it matters whether George Bush or John Kerry wins in November, with 75% saying it matters a great deal.

 

Question Wording: Do you think it matters a great deal, somewhat, not too much, or not at all whether George Bush or John Kerry wins the presidential election this year?

 

Registered voters

A Great Deal

Somewhat

Not Too Much