EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE:  Monday 6:00 p.m. February 19, 2007

All references must be sourced WNBC/Marist Poll

 

Contact:          Dr. Lee M. Miringoff

Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho

Marist College

845.575.5050

National Poll:  Presidential Campaign 2008

 

This WNBC/Marist Poll reports:

·                  Hillary Clinton still outpaces her Democratic rivals nationwide as the Democrats’ choice for their party’s presidential nomination:  Hillary Clinton outdistances her closest contender for the Democratic nomination for president, Senator Barack Obama, by more than two to one among Democrats and Democratic leaning independents.  Senator Obama, for his part, has emerged for the first time in sole possession of second place.  He is followed by former Vice President Al Gore and former Senator John Edwards who are tied for third. 

 

But Senator Clinton faces a tougher audience among the general electorate. Only a slim majority of voters will consider supporting a woman for president on the Democratic ticket and 43% say they will definitely not consider voting for her.  Nearly seven out of every ten Republicans and almost four out of ten independents view her as ideologically too liberal.  Senator Clinton’s characterization of her vote to authorize the war in Iraq also divides the electorate although this is mostly due to a majority of independent voters who would like to see her admit her vote was a mistake.  Despite these concerns among voters, Hillary Clinton runs competitively against the two Republican frontrunners, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Senator John McCain.  She leads former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and former Congressman Newt Gingrich by double digits.  Although a majority of voters still believe she is unlikely to be elected in 2008, the proportion of voters who hold this view has steadily declined in the past year. 

Ø  Senator Hillary Clinton receives 37% among Democrats and Democratic leaning independents for her party’s 2008 presidential nomination.  She is followed by Senator Barack Obama with 17%, former Vice President Al Gore and former Senator John Edwards each with 11%.  Eight other potential Democratic candidates trail with low single digits.  17% of Democrats and Democratic leaning independent voters are undecided.

 

Question Wording: If the 2008 Democratic presidential primary were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:  (asked of Democrats and Democratic leaning independents)

 

Democrats

February 2007

December 2006

October 2006

February 2006

 Hillary Clinton

37%

33%

35%

33%

 Barack Obama

17%

12%

n.a.

n.a.

 Al Gore

11%

13%

16%

17%

 John Edwards

11%

14%

10%

16%

 Joe Biden

  2%

  3%

  5%

  4%

 Bill Richardson

  2%

  1%

  1%

  2%

 Wesley Clark

  1%

  1%

  1%

  3%

 Al Sharpton

  1%

<1%

n.a.

n.a.

 Mike Gravel

  1%

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

 Dennis Kucinich

<1%

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

 Chris Dodd

<1%

<1%

  1%

n.a.

 Tom Vilsack

<1%

  1%

<1%

<1%

 Other

n.a.

  6%

 15%

16%

 Undecided

17%

16%

16%

  9%

 

Ø  44% of registered voters describe Senator Clinton as ideologically about right, and 39% view her as too liberal.  There is a wide partisan divide.  71% of Democrats think she is ideologically well positioned compared with 69% of Republicans who characterize her as too liberal.  Independent voters are more divided.  43% believe her views are about right, and 38% think she is too liberal.

 

Question Wording: Do you think Hillary Clinton is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?

 

Registered Voters

Too Liberal

Too Conservative

About Right

Unsure

February 2007

39%

  6%

44%

11%

 Democrat

14%

  6%

71%

  9%

 Republican

69%

  5%

16%

10%

 Independent

38%

  6%

43%

13%

December 2006

41%

  6%

44%

  9%

October 2006

40%

  6%

43%

11%

February 2006

42%

  6%

45%

  7%

October 2005

39%

  6%

46%

  9%

Ø  43% of registered voters say they will definitely not consider voting for Hillary Clinton for president in 2008.  This includes 80% of Republicans and 43% of independents.  She has a higher proportion of voters who say they will not consider her candidacy than either Barack Obama or John Edwards.  Al Gore is the only top tier Democrat whose potential candidacy receives less than a majority of support.  52% of registered voters say they will definitely not consider voting for Al Gore should he decide to enter the 2008 presidential race.

 

Question wording:  Thinking about the 2008 presidential elections, would you definitely consider voting for Hillary Clinton/Barack Obama/John Edwards/Al Gore, possibly consider voting for Hillary Clinton/Barack Obama/John Edwards/Al Gore, or would you definitely not consider voting for Hillary Clinton/Barack Obama/John Edwards/Al Gore?

 

Registered Voters

February 2007

Definitely

Consider

Possibly

Consider

Definitely

Not Consider

 

Unsure

Hillary Clinton

25%

30%

43%

  2%

 Democrat

48%

37%

12%

  3%

 Republican

  3%

16%

80%

  1%

 Independent

20%