EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE:  Tuesday 6:00 p.m. October 3, 2006

All references must be sourced WNBC/Marist Poll

 

Contact:          Dr. Lee M. Miringoff

Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho

Marist College

845.575.5050

 

National Poll:  Campaign 2008

 

This WNBC/Marist Poll reports:

·                  Will America’s mayor become America’s president?  Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is one of the top Republican presidential contenders for 2008 and the only leading potential candidate, Democrat or Republican, that a majority of registered voters nationwide would like to see run for president.  Many voters also see him as ideologically acceptable although this is fueled by 70% of Republicans who see him as politically about right.  But voters divide over whether they think he will, in fact, run for president and many are not optimistic about his chances should he decide to do so.

 

Ø      Giuliani receives the support of 23% of Republican or Republican leaning independents in the race for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination followed by 20% for Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and 15% for Senator John McCain.  A field of nine other potential Republican presidential contenders trails with single-digit support.

 

Question Wording: If the 2008 Republican presidential primary were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:  (asked of Republicans and Republican leaning independents)

 

Republicans

October 2006

February 2006

October 2005

Rudy Giuliani

23%

22%

21%

Condoleezza Rice

20%

22%

21%

John McCain

15%

22%

19%

Newt Gingrich

  7%

  5%

  5%

Mitt Romney

  4%

  4%

<1%

Bill Frist

  4%

  2%

  2%

George Allen

  2%

  2%

  4%

George Pataki

  2%

  2%

  2%

Sam Brownback

  1%

<1%

  2%

Tom Tancredo

  1%

  1%

  1%

Chuck Hagel

<1%

  1%

  1%

Mike Huckabee

<1%

n.a.

n.a.

Other

n.a.

n.a.

  5%

Undecided

21%

17%

17%

 

Ø      54% of registered voters want to see Rudy Giuliani run for president in 2008.  This includes 78% of Republicans and 57% of independent voters.  Even 32% of Democrats are interested in a Giuliani presidential candidacy.

 

Question Wording: Do you want Rudy Giuliani to run for president in 2008 or not?

 

Registered Voters

Yes, Run

No, Don’t Run

Unsure

October 2006

54%

39%

  7%

 Democrat

32%

61%

  7%

 Republican

78%

16%

  6%

 Independent

57%

36%

  7%

February 2006

49%

45%

  6%

October 2005

54%

40%

  6%

May 2005

49%

43%

  8%

February 2005

42%

47%

11%

December 2004

32%

42%

26%

 

Ø      51% of registered voters characterize Rudy Giuliani as ideologically about right including 70% of Republicans and 55% of independent voters.  Only 12% of Republicans think he is too liberal.  34% of Democrats think he is ideologically well positioned although 29% of Democrats view him as too conservative.

 

Question Wording: Do you think Rudy Giuliani is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?

 

Registered Voters

Too Liberal

Too Conservative

About Right

Unsure

October 2006

12%

17%

51%

20%

 Democrat

14%

29%

34%

23%

 Republican

12%

  5%

70%

13%

 Independent

11%

16%

55%

18%

February 2006

11%

20%

52%

17%

October 2005

12%

13%

54%

21%

 

Ø      When matched against the Democratic frontrunner, Senator Hillary Clinton, Giuliani leads by seven percentage points nationally.  He receives 49% compared with 42% for Clinton.  9% of registered voters are undecided.

 

Question wording:  If the 2008 presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:

 

Registered Voters

Rudy Giuliani

Hillary Clinton

Undecided

October 2006

49%

42%

  9%

 Democrat

17%

79%

  4%

 Republican

89%

  6%

  5%

 Independent

50%

36%

14%

February 2006

48%

47%

  5%

October 2005

50%

43%

  7%

May 2005

47%

46%