New York: Presidential
Campaign 2004
Contact: Dr. Lee M. Miringoff
Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho
845.575.5050
This Marist College Institute for Public Opinion poll reports:
· Kerry with sizeable lead among New York State Democrats: Massachusetts Senator John Kerry is outdistancing his rivals in the race for one of Super Tuesday’s delegate rich states. Kerry receives the support of 66% of likely New York State Democratic primary voters followed by 14% for North Carolina Senator John Edwards, 7% for Reverend Al Sharpton, and 3% for Dennis Kucinich. 10% are undecided.
Question Wording: If the Democratic presidential primary in New York were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:
Likely Democrats |
John Kerry |
John Edwards |
Al Sharpton |
Dennis Kucinich |
Undecided |
February
2004
|
66% |
14% |
7% |
3% |
10% |
|
Upstate |
70% |
14% |
3% |
6% |
7% |
|
New York City |
60% |
14% |
11% |
2% |
13% |
|
Suburbs |
78% |
14% |
2% |
<1% |
6% |
|
Liberal |
70% |
14% |
5% |
5% |
6% |
|
Moderate |
66% |
13% |
7% |
1% |
13% |
|
Conservative |
64% |
17% |
11% |
<1% |
8% |
|
Men |
70% |
13% |
4% |
4% |
9% |
|
Women |
64% |
15% |
9% |
2% |
10% |
·
Many voters
still not firmly committed to a candidate:
Only 50% of likely New York State Democratic primary voters are strongly
committed to a candidate for their party’s nomination for president. 27% say they somewhat support their choice,
and 22% indicate they might vote differently on primary day. 52% of Kerry’s support is firmly committed
to him. This is 34% of the total likely
Democratic primary electorate.*
Question Wording: Would you say you strongly support (candidate), somewhat support him, or do you think you might vote differently on primary day?
|
Likely Democrats |
Strongly Support |
Somewhat Support |
Might Vote Differently |
Unsure |
February
2004
|
50% |
27% |
22% |
1% |
John Kerry
|
52% |
28% |
19% |
1% |
John Edwards
|
37% |
34% |
29% |
0% |
·
Beating President Bush tops list for Democrats: 36% of likely New York State Democratic
primary voters want a candidate that can beat President George Bush in
November. 19% say being closer to them
on the issues and 18% think having values like their own matter most.
Question Wording: Which one of the following is most important to you in deciding whom to support for the Democratic presidential nomination? A candidate who:
February 2004 |
Likely Voters |
Support for Candidate by Quality |
|||
|
Kerry |
Edwards |
Other |
Undecided |
||
|
Can beat Bush |
36% |
80% |
11% |
3% |
6% |
|
Closer on
issues |
19% |
54% |
22% |
14% |
10% |
|
Values like
you |
18% |
59% |
14% |
14% |
13% |
|
Stands up for
beliefs |
12% |
69% |
6% |
18% |
7% |
|
Has the
experience |
8% |
68% |
12% |
9% |
11% |
|
Not a typical
politician |
3% |
20% |
41% |
21% |
18% |
|
Unsure |
4% |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
· Although majority satisfied with Kerry, many want contest to continue: 51% of likely New York State Democratic primary voters are satisfied if John Kerry were to become the Democratic presidential nominee to oppose President George Bush. 46% would like to see the Democratic primary contest continue.
Question Wording: Would you like to see the Democratic primary contest continue or are you satisfied with John Kerry as the Democratic nominee to oppose George Bush in November?
|
Likely Democrats |
Satisfied with Kerry |
Continue Contest |
Unsure |
February 2004
|
51% |
46% |
3% |
Support
John Kerry
|
63% |
36% |
1% |
Support
John Edwards
|
19% |
79% |
2% |
Undecided
|
38% |
50% |
12% |
The survey of 404 likely New York State Democratic primary
voters was conducted from February 17th through
February 19th, 2004. Likely
Democratic voters were interviewed by telephone in proportion to the voter
registration in each county in New York State and adjusted for turnout in
comparable elections. Results are
statistically significant at ±5%. The error margin increases for cross-tabulations.
* 52% of the 66% of likely New York State Democratic primary voters who support John Kerry are firmly committed to him. This represents 34% of the total primary electorate.