New York State: The Presidential Contest

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Thursday, October 28, 2004

Contact: Dr. Lee M. Miringoff

Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho

Marist College

845.575.5050

This Marist College Institute for Public Opinion poll reports:

· Life in a blue state…the presidential election in New York: U.S. Senator John Kerry has a wide lead over President George Bush in the campaign for New York’s 31 electoral votes. Kerry receives the support of 54% of the state’s registered voters compared with 38% for Bush. Ralph Nader receives 2%, and 6% are undecided. Among likely voters, Kerry has 56% and Bush has 38%. Nader receives 1%, and 5% are undecided.

Question Wording: If next week's presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:

Registered voters	Bush/Cheney Republican	Kerry/Edwards Democrat	Nader/Camejo Independent	Undecided
October 2004	38%	54%	2%	6%
September 2004	40%	48%	4%	8%
Party
Democrats	14%	83%	1%	2%
Republicans	74%	16%	1%	9%
Non-enrolled	33%	56%	5%	6%
Region
Upstate	42%	46%	3%	9%
New York City	29%	66%	1%	4%
Suburbs	43%	52%	2%	3%

Likely voters	Bush/Cheney Republican	Kerry/Edwards Democrat	Nader/Camejo Independent	Undecided
October 2004	38%	56%	1%	5%
w/ Leaners	39%	57%	1%	3%
September 2004	40%	51%	3%	6%
w/ leaners	41%	52%	3%	4%

· Most voters are firmly committed to their candidate: 75% of New York State registered voters are strongly committed to their choice for president. 78% of Bush backers are strongly committed to him, not statistically different from the 75% of Kerry supporters who say they are firmly committed to their candidate.

Question Wording: Would you say you strongly support (candidate), somewhat support him, or do you think you might vote differently on election day?

Registered voters	Strongly Support	Somewhat Support	Might Vote Differently	Unsure
October 2004	75%	19%	5%	1%
George Bush	78%	17%	5%	<1%
John Kerry	75%	19%	4%	2%
September 2004	68%	24%	7%	1%

• Interest in campaign is strong in New York: 81% of registered voters in New York express an interest in the presidential election. This is 12 points higher than it was this time four years ago.

Question Wording: Using the numbers 1 to 5, with 1 meaning very interested and 5 meaning not interested at all, how interested are you in the presidential election?

Registered voters	Very Interested 1	2	3	4	Not Interested at All 5
October 2004	71%	10%	10%	4%	5%
October 2000	54%	15%	18%	7%	6%

• New York State voters think it is likely there will be problems at the polls this Election Day: 53% of registered voters think many votes will not be counted this Election Day. Democrats and Independents are more likely to feel this way than are Republicans. African American and Latino voters in the state are especially concerned.

Question Wording: Do you think it is very likely, likely, not very likely, or not likely at all that many votes will not actually be counted?

Registered voters	Very Likely or Likely	Very Likely	Likely	Not Very Likely	Not Likely at All	Unsure
October 2004	53%	21%	32%	27%	14%	6%
Party
Democrats	62%	29%	33%	23%	10%	5%
Republicans	38%	12%	26%	35%	21%	6%
Independents	63%	22%	41%	23%	11%	3%
Race
White	50%	18%	32%	30%	15%	5%
African American	77%	39%	38%	12%	7%	4%
Latino	67%	26%	41%	21%	7%	5%

· President Bush’s approval rating remains low in New York: Only 39% of New York State’s registered voters rate the president’s job performance positively.

Question Wording: Would you rate the job President George Bush is doing in office as excellent, good, fair, or poor?

Registered voters	Excellent/ Good	Excellent	Good	Fair	Poor	Unsure/ DK
October 2004	39%	19%	20%	18%	42%	1%
September 2004	40%	19%	21%	21%	39%	<1%
April 2004	38%	14%