New York State

The Presidential Contest

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:  Wednesday, September 15, 2004

 

Contact:           Dr. Lee M. Miringoff

Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho

Marist College

845.575.5050

 

This Marist College Institute for Public Opinion poll reports:

·                 The presidential election in New York…closer but still blue:  U.S. Senator John Kerry leads President George Bush in the campaign for New York’s 31 electoral votes.  Kerry receives the support of 48% of the state’s registered voters compared with 40% for Bush.  Independent candidate Ralph Nader receives 4%, and 8% are undecided.  In a similar poll conducted in April, Kerry’s lead was 17 points.

 

Question Wording:  If November's presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:

 

 
Registered voters

Bush/Cheney

Republican

Kerry/Edwards

Democrat

Nader/Camejo

Independent

 

Undecided

September 2004

40%

48%

4%

  8%

April 2004

37%

54%

5%

  4%

Party

 

 

 

 

 Democrats

20%

73%

3%

  4%

 Republicans

75%

15%

4%

  6%

 Non-enrolled

38%

47%

4%

11%

Region

 

 

 

 

 Upstate

50%

41%

3%

  6%

 New York City

27%

59%

5%

  9%

 Suburbs

42%

45%

4%

  9%

 

·                 Kerry breaks 50% among likely voters:  Among registered voters considered likely to vote, Kerry receives 51% compared with 40% for Bush. 

 

 
Likely voters

Bush/Cheney

Republican

Kerry/Edwards

Democrat

Nader/Camejo

Independent

 

Undecided

September 2004

40%

51%

  3%

  6%

w/ leaners

41%

52%

  3%

  4%

 

·                 Most voters are firmly committed to their candidate:  68% of New York State registered voters are strongly committed to their choice for president.  Bush backers are more firmly committed than are Kerry supporters.

 

Question Wording: Would you say you strongly support (candidate), somewhat support him, or do you think you might vote differently on election day?

 

 

Registered voters

Strongly

Support

Somewhat

Support

Might Vote

Differently

 

Unsure
September 2004

68%

24%

7%

  1%
  George Bush

73%

20%

7%

<1%
  John Kerry

67%

26%

6%

  1%

 

  • Interest in campaign is strong in New York:  79% of registered voters in New York express an interest in the presidential election.  This is 13 points higher than it was this time four years ago. 

 

Question Wording:  Using the numbers 1 to 5, with 1 meaning very interested and 5 meaning not interested at all, how interested are you in the presidential election?

 

 
 
Registered voters

Very Interested

1

 

 

2

 

 

3

 

 

4

Not Interested

at All

5

September 2004

66%

13%

11%

5%

5%

September 2000

51%

15%

21%

8%

5%

 

·                 Many New York voters give thumbs down to job President Bush is doing:  60% of New York State’s registered voters do not rate the president’s job performance positively.

 

Question Wording: Would you rate the job President George Bush is doing in office as excellent, good, fair, or poor?

 

 

Registered Voters

Excellent/

Good

 

Excellent

 

Good

 

Fair

 

Poor

Unsure/

DK

  September 2004

40%

19%

21%

21%

39%

<1%

  April 2004

38%

14%

24%

22%

39%

  1%

  January 2004

52%

22%

30%

19%

28%

  1%

  September 2003

44%

17%

27%

22%

33%

  1%

  April 2003

58%

29%

29%

19%

22%

  1%

  December 2002

57%

24%

33%

23%

19%

  1%

  April 2002

72%

33%

39%

17%

10%

  1%

  December 2001

79%

43%

36%

15%

  5%

  1%

  April 2001

40%

11%

29%

30%

23%

  7%

 

Nature of the Sample: 786 NYS Registered Voters

The survey of 786 registered voters was conducted on September 13th and 14th, 2004.  Registered voters were interviewed by telephone in proportion to the voter registration in each county in New York State and adjusted for turnout in statewide elections.  There are 584 likely voters.  Results are statistically significant at ±3.5% for registered voters and ±4% for likely voters.  The error margin increases for cross-tabulations.