New York State: Campaign 2006

EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE: WEDNESDAY 6:00 P.M. JULY 19, 2006

All references must be sourced WNBC/Marist Poll

Contact: Dr. Lee M. Miringoff

Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho

Marist College

845.575.5050

This WNBC/Marist Poll of New York State reports:

• Hillary Clinton has a commanding lead over her opponents in her bid for re-election: Hillary Clinton substantially outdistances her Democratic Primary challenger and both of her potential Republican competitors for the U.S. Senate. Clinton outpaces Jonathan Tasini by 70 points for the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate in New York. In match-ups against her potential Republican opponents for November’s U.S. Senate race, Senator Clinton outscores former Yonkers Mayor John Spencer and former Reagan administration official Kathleen Troia McFarland by wide margins.

Question Wording: If September's Democratic primary for U.S. Senate in New York State were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:

Registered Democrats	Jonathan Tasini	Hillary Clinton	Undecided
July 2006	13%	83%	4%

Question Wording: If November’s election for U.S. Senate in New York State were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:

Registered Voters	John Spencer Republican	Hillary Clinton Democrat	Undecided
July 2006	34%	61%	5%
May 2006	33%	63%	4%
January 2006	33%	62%	5%
September 2005	31%	62%	7%

Registered Voters

Kathleen McFarland

Republican

Hillary Clinton

Democrat

Undecided

July 2006

32%

61%

May 2006

30%

64%

• Many New York Republicans still undecided about whom to nominate to challenge Hillary Clinton for the U.S. Senate in November: 49% of New York State’s registered Republicans are undecided about whom to support for their party’s U.S. Senate nominee against Hillary Clinton. John Spencer has the support of 36% of registered Republicans compared with 15% for Kathleen McFarland.

Question Wording: If September's Republican primary for U.S. Senate in New York State were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:

Registered Republicans

Undecided

John

Spencer

Kathleen

McFarland

Other

July 2006

49%

36%

15%

n.a.

May 2006

47%

26%

14%

13%

• A majority of New York voters approve of the job Hillary Clinton is doing as senator: 52% of New York State’s registered voters rate the job Hillary Clinton is doing as senator as either excellent or good.

Question Wording: Would you rate the job Senator Hillary Clinton is doing in office as excellent, good, fair, or poor?

Registered Voters	Excellent/ Good	Excellent	Good	Fair	Poor	Unsure/ DK
July 2006	52%	13%	39%	27%	19%	2%
Party
Democrat	69%	19%	50%	22%	7%	2%
Republican	36%	8%	28%	31%	31%	2%
Non-enrolled	45%	10%	35%	31%	21%	3%
Region
Upstate	46%	11%	35%	30%	21%	3%
New York City	61%	16%	45%	24%	13%	2%
Suburbs	50%	13%	37%	27%	21%	2%
Gender
Men	43%	10%	33%	30%	24%	3%
Women	58%	15%	43%	25%	15%	2%
Previous Polls
May 2006	51%	15%	36%	27%	19%	3%
January 2006	54%	18%	36%	24%	19%	3%
September 2005	54%	18%	36%	22%	20%	4%
August 2005	54%	19%	35%	23%	16%	7%
April 2005	56%	16%	40%	24%	16%	4%
October 2004	57%	18%	39%	21%	18%	4%
September 2004	53%	18%	35%	25%	20%	2%
April 2004	51%	13%	38%	27%	18%	4%
January 2004	55%	18%	37%	23%	17%	5%
September 2003	49%	17%	32%	26%	21%	4%
April 2003	47%	13%	34%	27%	22%	4%
December 2002	44%	10%	34%	28%	20%	8%
April 2002	47%	11%	36%	27%	20%	6%
December 2001	45%	11%	34%	23%	23%	9%
April 2001	35%	9%	26%	26%	22%	17%
February 2001	30%	10%	20%	22%	20%	28%

• Eliot Spitzer is a formidable frontrunner in the race for New York governor: 75% of New York State’s registered Democrats support Attorney General Eliot Spitzer for their party’s nominee for New York governor. Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi receives 10%, and 15% are undecided. In a match-up between Eliot Spitzer and his Republican opponent for November’s election for New York governor, Spitzer outdistances former Assemblyman John Faso by 49 points.

Question Wording: If September's Democratic primary for governor of New York State were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:

Registered Democrats	Tom Suozzi	Eliot Spitzer	Undecided
July 2006	10%	75%	15%
May 2006	12%	72%	16%
January 2006	8%	72%	20%

Question Wording: If November’s election for governor of New York State were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:

Registered Voters	John Faso Republican	Eliot Spitzer Democrat	Undecided
July 2006	20%	69%	11%
May 2006	20%	70%	10%
January 2006	18%	68%	14%
September 2005	20%	64%	16%

• Most New Yorkers approve of the job Eliot Spitzer is doing as attorney general: 63% of registered voters rate the job Eliot Spitzer is doing as attorney general as either excellent or good. 21% rate the job he is doing as fair, and 7% rate his performance as poor. 9% are unsure.

Question Wording: Would you rate the job Attorney General Eliot Spitzer is doing in office as excellent, good, fair, or poor?

Registered Voters	Excellent/ Good	Excellent	Good	Fair	Poor	Unsure/ DK
July 2006	63%	18%	45%	21%	7%	9%
Party
Democrat	67%	21%	46%	21%	5%	7%
Republican	58%	11%	47%	23%	10%	9%
Non-enrolled	62%	22%	40%	17%	8%	13%
Previous Polls
May 2006	63%	20%	43%	22%	5%	10%
January 2006	63%	21%	42%	21%	3%	13%
September 2005	61%	18%	43%	22%	4%	13%
April 2005	61%	20%	41%	19%	5%	15%
October 2004	57%	23%	34%	19%	4%	20%
September 2004	54%	18%	36%	25%	5%	16%
April 2004	60%	20%	40%	20%	4%	16%

• Former HUD Secretary Andrew Cuomo leads the Democratic primary field for New York’s attorney general, but many still undecided: Andrew Cuomo leads the field of potential candidates for the Democratic nomination for New York State’s attorney general with the support of 40% of registered Democrats. Former New York City Public Advocate Mark Green follows with 25%. 25% of Democrats remain undecided. The other candidates in the race trail with single digit support.

Question Wording: If September's Democratic primary for attorney general of New York State were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:

Registered Democrats	Andrew Cuomo	Mark Green	Sean Patrick Maloney	Charlie King	Other	Undecided
July 2006	40%	25%	7%	3%	n.a.	25%
May 2006	39%	20%	5%	2%	7%	27%
January 2006	40%	18%	5%	2%	4%	31%

• Democrats lead in the contest for New York’s next attorney general: In match-ups for November’s election for New York State’s attorney general, Democrat Andrew Cuomo leads Republican Jeanine Pirro. Cuomo receives the support of 51% of New York State’s registered voters compared with 37% for Pirro. 12% of registered voters are undecided. When Democrat Mark Green is matched against Republican Jeanine Pirro, he receives the support of 49% of registered voters compared with 35% for Pirro. 16% are undecided.

Question Wording: If November’s election for attorney general of New York State were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:

Registered Voters	Jeanine Pirro Republican	Andrew Cuomo Democrat	Undecided
July 2006	37%	51%	12%
May 2006	34%	52%	14%
January 2006	36%	50%	14%

Registered Voters	Jeanine Pirro Republican	Mark Green Democrat	Undecided
July 2006	35%	49%	16%
May 2006	34%	48%	18%
January 2006	36%	46%	18%

• Although a majority of voters think the state is headed in the wrong direction, the number who hold this view has declined: 52% of registered voters think New York State is headed in the wrong direction, but this is a decline from 61% in a similar poll conducted in May. Voters upstate, where 65% believe the state is headed in the wrong direction, are the most negative. Voters in New York City divide over whether things are on the right track or not, and a majority of voters in the suburbs which surround New York City think the state is headed in the right direction.

Question Wording: In general, thinking about the way things are going in New York State, do you feel things are going in the right direction or that things are going in the wrong direction?

Registered Voters	Right Direction	Wrong Direction	Unsure
July 2006	40%	52%	8%
Region
Upstate	29%	65%	6%
New York City	46%	44%	10%
Suburbs	52%	40%	8%
Previous Polls
May 2006	34%	61%	5%
January 2006	39%	54%	7%
September 2005	43%	50%	7%
April 2005	29%	65%	6%
October 2004	40%	54%	6%
September 2004	40%	54%	6%
April 2004	43%	51%	6%
January 2004	42%	46%	12%
September 2003	39%	54%	7%
April 2003	40%	53%	7%
December 2002	39%	52%	9%
October 30, 2002	51%	40%	9%
October 1, 2002	55%	37%	8%
September 2002	56%	38%	6%
May 2002	65%	28%	7%
April 2002	66%	28%	6%
December 2001	65%	25%	10%
December 2000	64%	30%	6%
September 1999	65%	25%	10%
October 1998	68%	23%	9%
October 1997	58%	33%	9%
November 1996	51%	37%	12%
September 1995	35%	48%	17%

• Education tops list of issues voters want addressed by next governor: 20% of registered voters think education should be the top priority for the next governor. Other top issues include taxes, economic development, jobs, and security from terrorism.

Question Wording: Do you think the top priority for the next governor should be:

May 2006	Registered Voters	Upstate	New York City	Suburbs
Education	20%	13%	29%	20%
Taxes	19%	28%	3%	21%
Economic development	16%	20%	11%	15%
Jobs	15%	21%	11%	10%
Security from terrorism	12%	6%	17%	18%
Poverty/homelessness	6%	5%	10%	5%
Housing	5%	2%	10%	4%
Crime	4%	3%	6%	1%
Ethnic/race relations	1%	<1%	<1%	4%
Unsure	2%	2%	3%	2%

• Most voters think the Iraq war should be a major campaign issue this fall: 62% of registered voters think the war in Iraq should be a major issue in the campaigns this fall including 70% of Democrats, 59% of voters who are not enrolled in any party, and 51% of Republicans. 48% of New York voters are more likely to vote for a candidate who is against the war in Iraq, and 21% are more likely to vote for a candidate who supports the war. Overall, most New York voters believe the war in Iraq has not been worth it. A majority of Republicans do not share this view.

Question Wording: Do you think the war in Iraq should be a major campaign issue,
a minor campaign issue, or not a campaign issue this fall?

Registered Voters	Major Issue	Minor Issue	Not an Issue
July 2006	62%	23%	15%
Party
Democrat	70%	18%	12%
Republican	51%	29%	20%
Non-enrolled	59%	24%	17%

Question Wording: Are you more likely to vote for a candidate who supports the war in Iraq, more likely to vote for a candidate who is against the war in Iraq, or does it not make any difference to you?

Registered Voters	Vote for Candidate who Supports Iraq War	Vote for Candidate who is Against Iraq War	Candidates Position Makes No Difference
July 2006	21%	48%	31%
Party
Democrat	9%	62%	29%
Republican	42%	26%	32%
Non-enrolled	18%	48%	34%

Question Wording: All in all, do you think the war in Iraq is worth it, or not?

Registered Voters	Worth it	Not Worth it	Unsure
July 2006	26%	71%	3%
Party
Democrat	12%	86%	2%
Republican	51%	47%	2%
Non-enrolled	23%	74%	3%

• A majority of voters do not think same-sex marriage should be a campaign issue this fall: 55% of registered voters do not think same-sex marriage should be an issue in the campaigns this fall. In addition, a majority of voters do not feel a candidate’s position on this issue makes a difference to their vote. New York voters are divided on same-sex marriage. 36% believe gay and lesbian couples should be allowed to marry, 35% support civil unions, and 29% believe there should be no legal recognition of the relationship between gay and lesbian couples.

Question Wording: Do you think same-sex marriage should be a major campaign issue,
a minor campaign issue, or not a campaign issue this fall?

Registered Voters	Major Issue	Minor Issue	Not an Issue
July 2006	9%	36%	55%
Party
Democrat	10%	39%	51%
Republican	7%	36%	57%
Non-enrolled	7%	31%	62%

Question Wording: Are you more likely to vote for a candidate who supports same-sex marriage, more likely to vote for a candidate who is against same-sex marriage, or does it not make any difference to you?

Registered Voters	Vote for Candidate who Supports Same-sex Marriage	Vote for Candidate who is Against Same-sex Marriage	Candidates Position Makes No Difference
July 2006	20%	25%	55%
Party
Democrat	30%	15%	55%
Republican	10%	36%	54%
Non-enrolled	15%	24%	61%

Question Wording: Which comes closer to your view: gay and lesbian couples should be allowed to legally marry, gay and lesbian couples should be allowed to legally form civil unions, but not marry, or there should be no legal recognition of the relationship between gay and lesbian couples?

Registered Voters	Allow Same Sex Marriage	Allow Civil Unions	No Legal Recognition
July 2006	36%	35%	29%
Party
Democrat	48%	26%	26%
Republican	22%	47%	31%
Non-enrolled	34%	37%	29%

• Many voters approve of the job Charles Schumer is doing as senator: Senator Charles Schumer’s approval rating is currently 58% among New York State's registered voters. This is statistically unchanged from the 56% he received from voters in May.

Question Wording: Would you rate the job Senator Charles Schumer is doing in office as excellent, good, fair, or poor?

Registered Voters	Excellent/ Good	Excellent	Good	Fair	Poor	Unsure/ DK
July 2006	58%	13%	45%	27%	8%	7%
May 2006	56%	15%	41%	27%	8%	9%
January 2006	57%	15%	42%	23%	12%	8%
September 2005	55%	17%	38%	25%	11%	9%
April 2005	58%	15%	43%	24%	8%	10%
October 2004	61%	19%	42%	21%	8%	10%
September 2004	50%	13%	37%	29%	11%	10%
April 2004	54%	13%	41%	27%	8%	11%
January 2004	58%	14%	44%	23%	7%	12%
September 2003	52%	12%	40%	30%	10%	8%
April 2003	52%	10%	42%	27%	8%	13%
December 2002	53%	11%	42%	28%	8%	11%
April 2002	55%	11%	44%	26%	6%	13%
December 2001	54%	12%	42%	24%	7%	15%
April 2001	49%	12%	37%	26%	8%	17%
December 2000	51%	13%	38%	22%	9%	18%
March 2000	39%	9%	30%	27%	7%	27%
September 1999	44%	9%	35%	31%	8%	17%
March 1999	41%	7%	34%	23%	10%	26%

• Comptroller Alan Hevesi is not known by nearly three in ten voters but his re-election prospects are strong: 29% of New York State’s registered voters are still unsure how to rate Comptroller Alan Hevesi. 37% rate his job performance as either excellent or good, and 34% rate the job he is doing as either fair or poor. But his bid for re-election this November looks positive. He outdistances his Republican opponent Christopher Callaghan by 29 points.

Question Wording: Would you rate the job Comptroller Alan Hevesi is doing in office as excellent, good, fair, or poor?

Registered Voters	Excellent/ Good	Excellent	Good	Fair	Poor	Unsure/ DK
July 2006	37%	3%	34%	29%	5%	29%
May 2006	36%	6%	30%	24%	6%	34%
January 2006	40%	5%	35%	23%	3%	34%
September 2005	40%	4%	36%	24%	3%	33%
April 2005	36%	5%	31%	22%	6%	36%
October 2004	35%	4%	31%	24%	5%	36%
September 2004	33%	4%	29%	29%	5%	33%
April 2004	36%	4%	32%	27%	3%	34%

Question Wording: If the November election for comptroller of New York were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:

Registered Voters

Christopher Callaghan Republican

Alan Hevesi

Democrat

Undecided

July 2006

28%

57%

15%

• Governor Pataki’s job performance rating improves: Although only 39% of New York State’s registered voters rate the job Governor Pataki is doing in office as excellent or good, this is an increase from his lowest point of 30% in May.

Question Wording: Would you rate the job Governor George Pataki is doing in office as excellent, good, fair, or poor?

Registered Voters	Excellent/ Good	Excellent	Good	Fair	Poor	Unsure/ DK
July 2006	39%	5%	34%	40%	19%	2%
Party
Democrats	30%	3%	27%	43%	25%	2%
Republicans	53%	6%	47%	34%	12%	1%
Non-enrolled	37%	7%	30%	42%	18%	3%
Region
Upstate	34%	4%	30%	42%	22%	2%
New York City	35%	3%	32%	44%	19%	2%
Suburbs	51%	7%	44%	33%	14%	2%
Previous Polls
May 2006	30%	3%	27%	47%	20%	3%
January 2006	43%	6%	37%	38%	17%	2%
September 2005	38%	5%	33%	42%	17%	3%
April 2005	34%	5%	29%	39%	25%	2%
October 2004	41%	7%	34%	38%	19%	2%
September 2004	43%	6%	37%	38%	17%	2%
April 2004	41%	4%	37%	40%	18%	1%
January 2004	46%	7%	39%	35%	14%	5%
September 2003	40%	6%	34%	41%	17%	2%
May 2003	37%	4%	33%	34%	25%	4%
April 2003	49%	7%	42%	31%	18%	2%
December 2002	57%	12%	45%	31%	10%	2%
October 30, 2002	57%	14%	43%	33%	9%	1%
October 1, 2002	61%	14%	47%	30%	8%	1%
September 2002	60%	12%	48%	31%	7%	2%
May 2002	72%	14%	58%	23%	5%	0%
April 2002	64%	15%	49%	28%	6%	2%
December 2001	65%	15%	50%	27%	4%	4%
April 2001	53%	10%	43%	34%	8%	5%
December 2000	55%	11%	44%	30%	10%	5%
March 2000	51%	9%	42%	35%	11%	3%
September 1999	51%	10%	41%	38%	9%	2%
July 1999	55%	15%	40%	31%	11%	3%
March 1999	61%	12%	49%	28%	10%	1%
October 1998	60%	14%	46%	31%	8%	1%
September 1998	62%	16%	46%	31%	6%	1%
April 1998	59%	11%	48%	33%	7%	1%
February 1998	60%	11%	49%	32%	6%	2%
October 1997	49%	7%	42%	39%	10%	2%
March 1997	47%	6%	41%	38%	12%	3%
November 1996	47%	8%	39%	36%	14%	3%
March 1996	39%	6%	33%	40%	17%	4%
September 1995	39%	5%	34%	38%	17%	6%
March 1995	36%	8%	28%	28%	16%	20%

• President’s job performance rating in New York still low: Only 26% of New York’s registered voters rate the job President Bush is doing in office as either excellent or good.

Question Wording: Would you rate the job President George Bush is doing in office as excellent, good, fair, or poor?

Registered voters	Excellent/ Good	Excellent	Good	Fair	Poor	Unsure/ DK
July 2006	26%	8%	18%	24%	49%	1%
Party
Democrat	12%	2%	10%	20%	67%	1%
Republican	48%	16%	32%	32%	20%	<1%
Non-enrolled	26%	7%	19%	20%	53%	1%
Previous Polls
May 2006	24%	7%	17%	21%	55%	<1%
January 2006	34%	11%	23%	21%	45%	<1%
September 2005	33%	10%	23%	22%	44%	1%
April 2005	43%	16%	27%	23%	34%	<1%
October 2004	39%	19%	20%	18%	42%	1%
September 2004	40%	19%	21%	21%	39%	<1%
April 2004	38%	14%	24%	22%	39%	1%
January 2004	52%	22%	30%	19%	28%	1%
September 2003	44%	17%	27%	22%	33%	1%
April 2003	58%	29%	29%	19%	22%	1%
December 2002	57%	24%	33%	23%	19%	1%
April 2002	72%	33%	39%	17%	10%	1%
December 2001	79%	43%	36%	15%	5%	1%
April 2001	40%	11%	29%	30%	23%	7%

Nature of the Sample: 800 NYS Registered Voters

The survey of 800 registered voters was conducted July 11^th through July 14^th, 2006. Registered voters were interviewed by telephone in proportion to the voter registration in each county in New York State and adjusted for turnout in statewide elections. Results are statistically significant at ±3.5%. There are 337 registered Democrats and 236 registered Republicans. Results for these sub-samples are statistically significant at ±5.5% and ±6.5%, respectively. The error margin increases for cross-tabulations.