EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE:  Monday 6:30 p.m. January 7, 2008

All references must be sourced WNBC/Marist Poll

 

Contact:        Dr. Lee M. Miringoff

Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho

Marist College

845.575.5050

 

New York State Poll

Independent Presidential Candidate Bloomberg?

 

This WNBC/Marist Poll reports:

·             Many New York voters like the idea of an independent party candidate for president but don’t want New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg to run for president in 2008:  60% of registered voters in New York State favor the idea of building a new independent party that would nominate a credible candidate for president.

 

Question Wording: Do you favor or oppose building a new independent party to run a credible candidate for president?

 

Registered Voters

Favor

Oppose

Unsure

January 2008

60%

33%

  7%

 

However, only 27% of New York’s registered voters want Mayor Bloomberg to run for president this year.  Registered voters who are not enrolled in any party are more likely than either Democrats or Republicans to want to see Bloomberg enter the presidential race.  Still, only about one-third of non-enrolled voters favor a Bloomberg presidential candidacy.

 

Question Wording: Do you want New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg to run for president in 2008 or not?

 

Registered Voters

Yes

No

Unsure

January 2008

27%

68%

  5%

  Democrats

27%

68%

  5%

  Republicans

23%

72%

  5%

  Non-enrolled

32%

65%

  3%

 

·             Few New York voters think independent candidate Bloomberg would win the White House:  If Mayor Bloomberg were to run for president as an independent candidate, only 12% of registered voters think he is likely to win.  Most voters think he would be a long shot.

 

Question Wording:  If Michael Bloomberg were to run for president as an independent candidate this year, do you think he will win, or not?

 

Registered Voters

Yes

No

Unsure

January 2008

12%

84%

  4%

 

·             New York’s electoral votes are not in play for the Republicans with an independent Bloomberg presidential candidacy:  When presented with a matchup between several Republican and Democratic contenders that includes Mayor Bloomberg as an independent candidate, the Democrats continue to lead the state.  Democrats Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama would both carry New York State against any of four potential Republican nominees with Bloomberg in the race as an independent candidate.   Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani is not the strongest Republican in a three-way matchup in New York.  Senator John McCain comes closest to carrying New York for the Republicans.  McCain is only single digits behind either Clinton or Obama with Bloomberg in the race.  A three-way contest which includes either former Governor Mike Huckabee or former Governor Mitt Romney as the Republican candidate results in an uncontested second place for Bloomberg in November’s presidential election in New York.

 

Question wording:  If the 2008 presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are (Hillary Clinton/Barack Obama, the Democrat, John McCain/Rudy Giuliani/Mitt Romney/Mike Huckabee, the Republican, and Michael Bloomberg, an independent):

 

Registered Voters

January 2008

Registered Voters

January 2008

Hillary Clinton

39%

Barack Obama

38%

John McCain

33%

John McCain

31%

Michael Bloomberg

24%

Michael Bloomberg

26%

Undecided

  4%

Undecided

  5%

 

Registered Voters

January 2008

Registered Voters

January 2008

Hillary Clinton

42%

Barack Obama

43%

Rudy Giuliani

27%

Rudy Giuliani

28%

Michael Bloomberg

27%

Michael Bloomberg

25%

Undecided

 4%

Undecided

  4%

 

Registered Voters

January 2008

Registered Voters

January 2008

Hillary Clinton

43%

Barack Obama

44%

Mitt Romney

23%

Mitt Romney

20%

Michael Bloomberg

31%

Michael Bloomberg

29%

Undecided

  3%

Undecided

  7%

 

Registered Voters

January 2008

Registered Voters

January 2008

Hillary Clinton

41%

Barack Obama

45%

Mike Huckabee

22%

Mike Huckabee

17%

Michael Bloomberg

33%

Michael Bloomberg

32%

Undecided

  4%

Undecided

  6%

 

Nature of the Sample: 505 New York State Registered Voters

This survey was conducted January 3rd through January 5th, 2008.  Registered voters were interviewed by telephone in proportion to the voter registration in each county in New York State and adjusted for turnout in statewide elections.  The margin of error is ±4.5%.  The error margin increases for cross-tabulations.