Marist Institute for Public Opinion
Marist College l Poughkeepsie, N.Y. 12601 l (914) 575-5050
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Friday, February 4, 2000
Contact: Dr. Lee M. Miringoff
Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho
Marist College
(914) 575-5050
This Marist College Institute for Public Opinion poll reports:
Rudy vs. Hillary: The Curtain Goes Up
Question Wording: If the next election for U.S. Senate in New York State were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are Rudy Giuliani, the Republican, and Hillary Clinton, the Democrat?
|
Registered Voters |
Rudy Giuliani |
Hillary Clinton |
Undecided |
February 2000 |
47% |
40% |
13% |
January 2000 |
49% |
40% |
11% |
December 1999 |
49% |
40% |
11% |
October 1999 |
46% |
42% |
12% |
September 1999 |
49% |
40% |
11% |
July 1999 |
47% |
41% |
12% |
April 1999 |
43% |
43% |
14% |
March 26, 1999 |
46% |
48% |
6% |
March 3, 1999 |
45% |
50% |
5% |
February 1999 |
38% |
49% |
13% |
January 1999 |
42% |
52% |
6% |
|
Registered Voters |
Rudy Giuliani |
Hillary Clinton |
Undecided |
|
Region 02/00 |
|||
|
Upstate |
50% |
33% |
17% |
|
New York City |
37% |
53% |
10% |
|
Suburbs |
56% |
34% |
10% |
|
Registered Voters |
Rudy Giuliani |
Hillary Clinton |
Undecided |
|
Gender 02/00 |
|||
|
Men |
53% |
35% |
12% |
|
Women |
43% |
44% |
13% |
|
White Women |
52% |
34% |
14% |
|
Non-white Women |
11% |
79% |
10% |
|
Party 02/00 |
|||
|
Democrat |
23% |
62% |
15% |
|
Republican |
79% |
12% |
9% |
|
Independent |
57% |
32% |
11% |
|
Race 02/00 |
|||
|
White |
56% |
30% |
14% |
|
Black |
4% |
82% |
14% |
|
Latino |
6% |
86% |
8% |
|
Religion 02/00 |
|||
|
Protestant |
43% |
44% |
13% |
|
Catholic |
54% |
32% |
14% |
|
White Catholic |
61% |
25% |
14% |
|
Jewish |
46% |
41% |
13% |
Question Wording: Would you say you strongly support Rudy Giuliani/Hillary Clinton, somewhat support him/her, or do you think that you might vote differently on Election Day?
|
Registered Voters |
Strongly Support |
Somewhat Support |
Might Vote Differently |
Unsure |
|
February 2000 |
60% |
25% |
12% |
3% |
|
January 2000 |
54% |
27% |
17% |
2% |
|
December 1999 |
58% |
26% |
14% |
2% |
|
October 1999 |
52% |
30% |
15% |
3% |
September 1999 |
58% |
27% |
12% |
3% |
Rudy Giuliani Supporters |
||||
|
February 2000 |
62% |
25% |
11% |
2% |
January 2000 |
56% |
27% |
15% |
2% |
December 1999 |
61% |
23% |
14% |
2% |
October 1999 |
51% |
30% |
15% |
4% |
September 1999 |
59% |
26% |
12% |
3% |
Hillary Clinton Supporters |
||||
|
February 2000 |
57% |
26% |
13% |
4% |
January 2000 |
51% |
26% |
20% |
3% |
December 1999 |
54% |
30% |
14% |
2% |
October 1999 |
53% |
31% |
14% |
2% |
September 1999 |
57% |
29% |
12% |
2% |
Question Wording: Please tell me if you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of each of the following:
|
Registered Voters |
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Unsure/Never Heard |
|
Rudy Giuliani |
|||
|
February 2000 |
54% |
35% |
11% |
|
January 2000 |
61% |
28% |
11% |
|
December 1999 |
60% |
27% |
13% |
|
October 1999 |
51% |
39% |
10% |
|
September 1999 |
58% |
30% |
12% |
|
April 1999 |
51% |
27% |
22% |
|
March 26, 1999 |
50% |
32% |
18% |
|
February 1999 |
61% |
25% |
14% |
|
January 1999 |
53% |
36% |
11% |
|
Hillary Clinton |
|||
|
February 2000 |
50% |
41% |
9% |
|
January 2000 |
48% |
43% |
9% |
|
December 1999 |
52% |
38% |
10% |
|
October 1999 |
50% |
39% |
11% |
|
September 1999 |
53% |
40% |
7% |
|
April 1999 |
54% |
33% |
13% |
|
March 26, 1999 |
56% |
33% |
11% |
|
February 1999 |
68% |
27% |
5% |
|
January 1999 |
66% |
32% |
2% |
It’s the Hand New York Voters Are Dealt
Question Wording: Are you generally satisfied with the choice between Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani for U.S. Senate, or would you have liked to see someone else run?
|
Satisfied |
Like to See Someone Else |
Unsure |
|
|
February 2000 |
46% |
50% |
4% |
|
January 2000 |
45% |
51% |
4% |
Rudy Giuliani Supporters |
|||
February 2000 |
38% |
57% |
5% |
Hillary Clinton Supporters |
|||
February 2000 |
59% |
39% |
2% |
Rudy vs. Hillary: Voters’ Scorecard
Question Wording: As a U.S. Senator from New York, do you think Rudy Giuliani or Hillary Clinton is more likely to:
Registered Voters |
Giuliani |
Clinton |
Undecided |
Be a fighter for New York in Washington |
52% |
34% |
14% |
Be able to work with others in the U.S. Senate |
37% |
49% |
14% |
Be a strong supporter of Israel |
32% |
29% |
39% |
Carpetbagger vs. Welcome Mat
Question Wording: If Hillary Clinton runs for the U.S. Senate in New York State, are you concerned a great deal, somewhat, not very much, or not at all, about the fact that she is not from New York State?
|
Registered Voters |
A Great Deal |
Somewhat |
Not Very Much |
Not At All |
February 2000 |
29% |
18% |
12% |
41% |
January 2000 |
30% |
23% |
12% |
35% |
December 1999 |
33% |
24% |
8% |
35% |
October 1999 |
26% |
24% |
11% |
39% |
September 1999 |
27% |
24% |
13% |
36% |
July 1999 |
32% |
20% |
11% |
37% |
April 1999 |
29% |
22% |
12% |
37% |
February 1999 |
25% |
21% |
14% |
40% |
Too Far to the Left? Too Far to the Right?
Question Wording: Compared to yourself, do you think Rudy Giuliani/Hillary Clinton is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
|
Too Liberal |
Too Conservative |
About Right |
Unsure |
|
|
Rudy Giuliani |
10% |
29% |
47% |
14% |
|
Hillary Clinton |
32% |
8% |
50% |
10% |
Off Limits
Question Wording: During the campaign for U.S. Senate, do you think it is fair or unfair to ask Rudy Giuliani/Hillary Clinton questions about his/her marriage?
|
Fair |
Unfair |
Unsure |
|
|
Rudy Giuliani |
22% |
75% |
3% |
|
Hillary Clinton |
23% |
74% |
3% |
How’s the Other Clinton Doing?
Question Wording: Would you rate the job President Bill Clinton is doing in office as excellent, good, fair, or poor?
|
Registered Voters |
Excellent |
Good |
Fair |
Poor |
Unsure/DK |
|
February 2000 |
23% |
41% |
25% |
10% |
1% |
|
January 2000 |
17% |
45% |
23% |
13% |
2% |
|
December 1999 |
22% |
44% |
23% |
10% |
1% |
|
September 1999 |
18% |
42% |
22% |
18% |
0% |
|
July 1999 |
20% |
36% |
29% |
14% |
1% |
|
March 26, 1999 |
20% |
46% |
20% |
13% |
1% |
|
October 1999 |
25% |
43% |
18% |
13% |
1% |
|
April 1998 |
21% |
43% |
21% |
14% |
1% |
|
February 1998 |
22% |
47% |
17% |
13% |
1% |
|
October 1997 |
14% |
47% |
26% |
12% |
1% |
|
March 1997 |
13% |
44% |
27% |
15% |
1% |
|
October 1996 |
8% |
43% |
33% |
16% |
0% |
|
September 1996 |
8% |
43% |
37% |
11% |
1% |
|
March 1996 |
12% |
40% |
30% |
17% |
1% |
|
September 1995 |
6% |
38% |
36% |
18% |
2% |
A Helping Hand?
Question Wording: If President Bill Clinton campaigns for Hillary Clinton in New York, are you more likely to vote for Hillary Clinton, less likely to vote for her, or does it make no difference to you?
|
More Likely |
Less Likely |
Makes No Difference |
|
|
Registered Voters |
5% |
20% |
75% |
Nature of the Sample: 634 New York State Registered Voters
This survey was conducted on February 2nd and 3rd, 2000. 634 registered voters were interviewed in proportion to the voter registration in each county in New York State and adjusted for turnout in comparable elections. All interviews were conducted by telephone. The results for the entire sample are statistically significant at ± 4%. The margin of error increases for cross-tabulations.
|
Race |
Party |
||
|
White |
82% |
Democrat |
45% |
|
Black |
12% |
Republican |
31% |
|
Latino |
4% |
Independent |
17% |
|
Asian |
1% |
Conservative |
2% |
|
Other |
1% |
Liberal |
2% |
|
Other |
3% |
||
|
Religion |
Ideology |
||
|
Protestant |
34% |
Liberal |
27% |
|
Catholic |
48% |
Moderate |
45% |
|
Jewish |
10% |
Conservative |
28% |
|
Other |
8% |
||
|
Gender (weighted) |
Region |
||
|
Men |
48% |
Upstate |
45% |
|
Women |
52% |
New York City |
31% |
|
Suburbs |
24% |