Hillary Clinton’s Re-election Prospects…and More

EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE:  MONDAY 6:00 P.M. JANUARY 30, 2006

 

Contact:           Dr. Lee M. Miringoff

Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho

Marist College

845.575.5050

 

This Marist College Institute for Public Opinion poll of New York State reports:

·                 Hillary Clinton is the odds-on favorite in her re-election bid but faces a skeptical New York audience for a presidential run:  Many of New York State’s registered voters say they like Senator Clinton more now than they did just a couple of years ago, and a majority plan to vote to re-elect her to the U.S. Senate this November.  But when asked about her potential presidential candidacy in 2008, New Yorkers divide over whether they want to see her enter the presidential sweepstakes.  Only 41% want to see her on the presidential campaign hustings compared with 49% who do not.  Although 59% believe she will run in 2008, most New Yorkers think she would face an uphill fight that she is not likely to win.  51% of voters also believe that Senator Clinton will be treated more harshly than her competitors in a campaign for the White House.

 

Ø      48% of New York voters like Hillary Clinton more now than they did two years ago including a majority of independent voters.  27% like her less, and 25% say their opinion of her has not really changed.

 

Question Wording: Do you like Hillary Clinton more or less than you did two years ago?

 

Registered Voters

More

Less

About the Same

January 2006

48%

27%

25%

Party

 

 

 

  Democrat

60%

16%

24%

  Republican

33%

45%

22%

  Non-enrolled

51%

23%

26%

 

Ø      54% of New York State’s registered voters say they would definitely vote to re-elect Hillary Clinton to the U.S. Senate in 2006 including most Democrats and a majority of independent voters.  32% would definitely vote against her including 60% of Republicans.  6% would like to wait and see who runs against her, and 8% are unsure.

 

Question Wording: Do you definitely plan to vote for Hillary Clinton for re-election as U.S. Senator or do you definitely plan to vote against her?

 

 

 

Registered Voters

 

Definitely Vote For

Definitely Vote Against

 

Depends Who Runs

 

 

Unsure

January 2006

54%

32%

  6%

  8%

September 2005

52%

32%

  8%

  8%

Party

 

 

 

 

  Democrat

79%

12%

  4%

  5%

  Republican

25%

60%

  6%

  9%

  Non-enrolled

52%

30%

  9%

  9%

 

Ø      49% of New York State’s registered voters do not want Hillary Clinton to make a presidential run in 2008 compared with 41% who would like to see her do so.  10% are unsure.  Voters divide along partisan lines.  A majority of Democrats would like to see a Hillary Clinton presidential candidacy, most Republicans would not, and independent voters evenly divide.

 

Question Wording: Do you want Hillary Clinton to run for president in 2008 or not?

 

Registered Voters

Yes, run

No, don’t run

Unsure

January 2006

41%

49%

10%

September 2005

40%

52%

  8%

Party

 

 

 

  Democrats

55%

36%

  9%

  Republicans

24%

68%

  8%

  Non-enrolled

45%

45%

10%

 

Ø      59% of New York State’s registered voters think Hillary Clinton will run for president in 2008.

 

Question Wording: Do you think Hillary Clinton will run for president in 2008 or not?

 

Registered Voters

Will run

Will Not run

Unsure

January 2006

59%

29%

12%

September 2005

54%

34%

12%

August 2005

55%

27%

18%

Party

 

 

 

  Democrat

56%

29%

15%

  Republican

62%

30%

  8%

  Non-enrolled

59%

32%

  9%

 

Ø      Should Hilary Clinton decide to run for president in 2008, 62% of New York State’s registered voters do not think it is likely that she will be elected. 

 

Question Wording: Do you think it is very likely, likely, not very likely, or not likely at all that Hillary Clinton will be elected president in 2008?

 

 

Registered Voters

Very Likely

 

Likely

Not Very Likely

Not Likely At All

 

Unsure

January 2006

  8%

25%

39%

23%

  5%

Party

 

 

 

 

 

  Democrat

11%

30%

36%

18%

  5%

  Republican

  5%

20%

41%

32%

  2%

  Non-enrolled

  6%

25%

42%

21%

  6%

 

Ø      51% of New York voters think Hillary Clinton will be treated more harshly than her opponents should she seek the presidency in 2008.  This opinion is shared by 62% of Democrats, 50% of independent voters, and 40% of Republicans.

 

Question Wording: If Hillary Clinton runs for president in 2008, because of who she is, do you think she will be treated more harshly than the other candidates, be treated just like any other candidate, or will she be treated better than the other candidates?

 

 

Registered Voters

Treated More Harshly

Treated

the Same

Treated

Better

January 2006

51%

31%

18%

Party

 

 

 

  Democrat

62%

28%

10%

  Republican

40%

33%

27%

  Non-enrolled

50%

30%

20%

 

·                 Senator Clinton’s partisan pitch receives mixed reviews from voters:  Hillary Clinton’s controversial comment about the Republicans running the House of Representatives like a plantation was not well received by New York State’s registered voters.  Although it is a majority, only 52% of Democrats agree with the senator’s characterization of the Republican leadership in Congress.  Just 17% of Republicans and 37% of independent voters share that view.  Her comment that the Bush administration will be remembered as one of the worst in history finds a somewhat more receptive audience, especially among Democrats.  But independent voters divide over whether they agree with that view, and most Republicans disagree.

 

Question Wording: Do you agree or disagree with Hillary Clinton that the Republican leaders in Congress run the House of Representatives like a plantation?