EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE: Wednesday 6:00 PM April 9, 2008
All references must be sourced WNBC/Marist Poll
ü Democrats’ “Dream Ticket” is a nightmare against McCain/Rice in New York
ü NYS voters take a wait and see approach to new governor
Contact: Dr. Lee M. Miringoff
Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho
This WNBC/Marist Poll of New York State reports:
· A McCain/Rice ticket would edge out both a Clinton/Obama or Obama/Clinton ticket for New York’s 31, usually true blue, electoral votes: 49% of registered voters in New York State support a John McCain/Condoleezza Rice ticket compared with 46% who support Hillary Clinton as president and Barack Obama as vice president. The Democrats don’t fare any better in New York with Obama at the top of the ticket as president and Clinton as vice president. McCain/Rice receives 49%, and Obama/Clinton has 44%. Although an Obama led Democratic ticket does better against McCain/Rice among non-enrolled voters than a Clinton/Obama ticket, Clinton/Obama is stronger with women against the Republicans.
Question Wording: If the 2008 presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are Hillary Clinton as president and Barack Obama as vice president for the Democrats and John McCain as president and Condoleezza Rice as vice president for the Republicans? [Choices were rotated]
Registered Voters |
Clinton/Obama Democrats |
McCain/Rice Republicans |
Undecided |
|
April 2008 |
46% |
49% |
5% |
|
Democrat |
70% |
23% |
7% |
|
Republican |
18% |
77% |
5% |
|
Non-enrolled |
42% |
57% |
1% |
|
Men |
36% |
60% |
4% |
|
Women |
52% |
41% |
7% |
Question Wording: If the 2008 presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are Barack Obama as president and Hillary Clinton as vice president for the Democrats and John McCain as president and Condoleezza Rice as vice president for the Republicans? [Choices were rotated]
Registered Voters |
Obama/Clinton Democrats |
McCain/Rice Republicans |
Undecided |
|
April 2008 |
44% |
49% |
7% |
|
Democrat |
64% |
27% |
9% |
|
Republican |
20% |
73% |
7% |
|
Non-enrolled |
47% |
50% |
3% |
|
Men |
40% |
57% |
3% |
|
Women |
47% |
42% |
11% |
· A McCain/Lieberman ticket trails a Clinton/Obama ticket in New York: Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman is not an asset to McCain against a Clinton/Obama ticket in New York. McCain/Lieberman receives the support of only 40% of New York’s registered voters compared with 53% who support a Clinton/Obama ticket. With Lieberman as his running mate, McCain is also behind but competitive in the state against an Obama/Clinton ticket. 45% of registered voters support a McCain/Lieberman ticket compared with 49% who support an Obama/Clinton ticket.
Question Wording: If the 2008 presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are Hillary Clinton as president and Barack Obama as vice president for the Democrats and John McCain as president and Joe Lieberman as vice president for the Republicans? [Choices were rotated]
Registered Voters |
Clinton/Obama Democrats |
McCain/Lieberman Republicans |
Undecided |
|
April 2008 |
53% |
40% |
7% |
|
Democrat |
80% |
15% |
5% |
|
Republican |
13% |
84% |
3% |
|
Non-enrolled |
50% |
42% |
8% |
|
Men |
54% |
43% |
3% |
|
Women |
53% |
37% |
10% |
Question Wording: If the 2008 presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are Barack Obama as president and Hillary Clinton as vice president for the Democrats and John McCain as president and Joe Lieberman as vice president for the Republicans? [Choices were rotated]
Registered Voters |
Obama/Clinton Democrats |
McCain/Lieberman Republicans |
Undecided |
|
April 2008 |
49% |
45% |
6% |
|
Democrat |
74% |
21% |
5% |
|
Republican |
11% |
84% |
5% |
|
Non-enrolled |
42% |
50% |
8% |
|
Men |
46% |
51% |
3% |
|
Women |
51% |
39% |
10% |
· The bitter Democratic primary process has taken its toll: When matched head to head against John McCain, both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are in a surprisingly close race in New York. Clinton receives support from 48% of the state’s voters compared with 46% for McCain. Obama receives support from 46% of New York’s voters compared with 48% for McCain.
Question Wording: If the 2008 presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican? [Choices were rotated]
Registered Voters |
Clinton Democrat |
McCain Republican |
Undecided |
|
April 2008 |
48% |
46% |
6% |
|
Democrat |
74% |
18% |
8% |
|
Republican |
17% |
78% |
5% |
|
Non-enrolled |
43% |
54% |
3% |
|
Men |
40% |
54% |
6% |
|
Women |
55% |
38% |
7% |
|
March 2007 |
56% |
40% |
4% |
Question Wording: If the 2008 presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican? [Choices were rotated]
Registered Voters |
Obama Democrat |
McCain Republican |
Undecided |
|
April 2008 |
46% |
48% |
6% |
|
Democrat |
68% |
25% |
7% |
|
Republican |
16% |
80% |
4% |
|
Non-enrolled |
41% |
51% |
8% |
|
Men |
40% |
56% |
4% |
|
Women |
51% |
40% |
9% |
· Nearly one-third of New York’s voters are unsure how to rate the new governor: As Governor Paterson approaches the end of his first month in office, 32% of registered voters are unsure how to assess him. This is down from the 48% who were unable to rate the job he was doing as lieutenant governor just a month ago. 35% rate the job he is doing as excellent or good, unchanged from March. But, 33% describe his performance in office so far as fair or poor nearly double the proportion of voters who shared this view in the previous poll.
Question Wording: Would you rate the job Governor David Paterson is doing in office as excellent, good, fair, or poor?
|
Registered Voters |
Excellent/ Good |
Excellent |
Good |
Fair |
Poor |
Unsure |
|
April 2008 |
35% |
4% |
31% |
25% |
8% |
32% |
|
Democrat |
42% |
6% |
36% |
20% |
3% |
35% |
|
Republican |
32% |
4% |
28% |
33% |
8% |
27% |
|
Non-enrolled |
28% |
2% |
26% |
28% |
13% |
31% |
|
Upstate |
40% |
6% |
34% |
26% |
7% |
27% |
|
New York City |
36% |
3% |
33% |
22% |
8% |
34% |
|
Suburbs |
24% |
2% |
22% |
30% |
8% |
38% |
|
March 2008* |
35% |
5% |
30% |
15% |
2% |
48% |
· Most voters do not think Governor Paterson’s private problems will interfere with his public responsibilities: 75% of registered voters do not think David Paterson’s admission of extra-marital affairs and past drug use will affect his ability to do his job as governor. In addition, 59% of registered voters think Governor Paterson cares about people like themselves, 58% think he is a good leader for New York State, and 55% think as governor he represents all regions of the state. Fewer than half of voters in the state think he is changing the way things work in Albany for the better, but nearly three in ten are unsure about that at this point.
Question Wording: I'm going to read you several statements about Governor David Paterson. Please tell me if you agree or disagree with each one: [Questions were rotated]
|
Registered Voters |
Agree |
Disagree |
Unsure |
|
He cares about people like you. |
59% |
20% |
21% |
|
He is a good leader for New York State. |
58% |
20% |
22% |
|
He represents all regions of the state. |
55% |
28% |
17% |
|
He is changing the way things work in Albany for the better. |
48% |
24% |
28% |
|
LAST: His admission of extra-marital affairs and past drug use will interfere with his carrying out his responsibilities as governor. |
18% |
75% |
7% |
· Many voters think New York State is headed in the wrong direction: 59% of registered voters think things in New York are moving in the wrong direction. Only 33% see the state heading in the right direction. Last year, more voters felt positively than negatively about how the state was doing.
Question Wording: In general, thinking about the way things are going in New York State, do you feel things are going in the right direction or that things are going in the wrong direction?
|
Registered Voters |
Right Direction |
Wrong Direction |
Unsure |
|
April 2008 |
33% |
59% |
8% |
|
March 2007 |
49% |
43% |
8% |
|
October 2006 |
35% |
56% |
9% |
· Most voters believe the New York State is in an economic recession: 73% of registered voters think the state is in an economic recession. 24% believe it is not.
Question Wording: Do you think that New York State is currently in a recession, or not?
|
Registered Voters |
Yes |
No |
Unsure |
|
April 2008 |
73% |
24% |
3% |
|
Upstate |
77% |
20% |
3% |
|
New York City |
70% |
26% |
4% |
|
Suburbs |
68% |
30% |
2% |
· Senate Majority Leader Joe Bruno has improved his standing among New York voters: Although voters divide over the job Senate Majority Leader Joe Bruno is doing in office, his rating has improved dramatically since last year. 42% of registered voters statewide describe the job he is doing as either excellent or good, and 44% characterize his job performance as fair or poor. Last July, during “Trooper-gate,” only 26% of registered voters approved of the job he was doing in office.
Question Wording: Would you rate the job New York State Senate Majority Leader Joe Bruno is doing in office as excellent, good, fair, or poor?
|
Registered Voters |
Excellent/ Good |
Excellent |
Good |
Fair |
Poor |
Unsure/ DK |
|
April 2008 |
42% |
6% |
36% |
31% |
13% |
14% |
|
July 2007 |
26% |
5% |
21% |
30% |
20% |
24% |
· Nearly four in ten voters approve of the job Sheldon Silver is doing as assembly speaker: Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver has also improved his standing among voters in the state. 38% of registered voters approve of the job Sheldon Silver is doing as speaker of the New York State Assembly compared with 28% who held this view last July. However, 42% rate the job he is doing in office as fair or poor. 20% do not know enough about him to offer an opinion.
Question Wording: Would you rate the job New York State Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver is doing in office as excellent, good, fair, or poor?
|
Registered Voters |
Excellent/ Good |
Excellent |
Good |
Fair |
Poor |
Unsure/ DK |
|
April 2008 |
38% |
5% |
33% |
28% |
14% |
20% |
|
July 2007 |
28% |
3% |
25% |
25% |
23% |
24% |
· New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo is highest rated statewide public official: 59% of registered voters rate the job Andrew Cuomo is doing as attorney general as excellent or good. His standing continues to improve. Last July, his approval rating was 52%. This time last year, just months after assuming office, about a quarter of the electorate did not have an opinion of him, and his positive score was 40%.
Question Wording: Would you rate the job New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo is doing in office as excellent, good, fair, or poor?
|
Registered Voters |
Excellent/ |