Marist Institute for Public Opinion
Marist College l Poughkeepsie, N.Y. 12601 l (914) 575-5050
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Thursday, September 16, 1999
Contact: Dr. Lee M. Miringoff
Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho
Marist College
(914) 575-5050
This Marist College Institute for Public Opinion poll reports:
Rudy vs. Hillary
Question Wording: If the next election for U.S. Senate in New York State were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are Rudolph Giuliani, the Republican, and Hillary Clinton, the Democrat?
|
Registered Voters |
Rudolph Giuliani |
Hillary Clinton |
Undecided |
September 1999 |
49% |
40% |
11% |
July 1999 |
47% |
41% |
12% |
April 1999 |
43% |
43% |
14% |
March 26, 1999 |
46% |
48% |
6% |
March 3, 1999 |
45% |
50% |
5% |
February 1999 |
38% |
49% |
13% |
January 1999 |
42% |
52% |
6% |
|
Registered Voters |
Rudolph Giuliani |
Hillary Clinton |
Undecided |
|
Region 9/99 |
|||
|
Upstate |
55% |
32% |
13% |
|
New York City |
30% |
60% |
10% |
|
Suburbs |
62% |
28% |
10% |
|
Registered Voters |
Rudolph Giuliani |
Hillary Clinton |
Undecided |
|
Gender 9/99 |
|||
|
Men |
55% |
37% |
8% |
|
Under 45 |
54% |
39% |
7% |
|
45 & over |
54% |
37% |
9% |
|
Women |
43% |
42% |
15% |
|
Under 45 |
41% |
45% |
14% |
|
45 & over |
46% |
40% |
14% |
|
Registered Voters |
Rudolph Giuliani |
Hillary Clinton |
Undecided |
|
Party 9/99 |
|||
|
Democrat |
23% |
64% |
13% |
|
Republican |
80% |
14% |
6% |
|
Independent |
52% |
34% |
14% |
|
Race 9/99 |
|||
|
White |
56% |
34% |
10% |
|
Black |
4% |
85% |
11% |
|
Latino |
34% |
58% |
8% |
|
Religion 9/99 |
|||
|
Protestant |
51% |
38% |
11% |
|
Catholic |
52% |
39% |
9% |
|
Jewish |
37% |
50% |
13% |
Question Wording: Would you say you strongly support Rudolph Giuliani/Hillary Clinton, somewhat support him/her, or do you think that you might vote differently on Election Day?
|
Registered Voters |
Strongly Support |
Somewhat Support |
Might Vote Differently |
Unsure |
September 1999 |
58% |
27% |
12% |
3% |
Rudolph Giuliani Supporters |
59% |
26% |
12% |
3% |
Hillary Clinton Supporters |
57% |
29% |
12% |
2% |
Question Wording: Rudolph Giuliani Supporters: Did you choose Rudolph Giuliani because you are for Rudolph Giuliani or because you are against Hillary Clinton? Hillary Clinton Supporters: Did you choose Hillary Clinton because you are for Hillary Clinton or because you are against Rudolph Giuliani?
Registered Voters |
For |
Against |
Unsure |
September 1999 |
59% |
36% |
5% |
Rudolph Giuliani supporters |
54% |
41% |
5% |
Hillary Clinton supporters |
64% |
31% |
5% |
Question Wording: Please tell me if you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of each of the following:
|
Registered Voters |
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Unsure/Never Heard |
|
Rudolph Giuliani |
|||
|
September 1999 |
58% |
30% |
12% |
|
April 1999 |
51% |
27% |
22% |
|
March 26, 1999 |
50% |
32% |
18% |
|
February 1999 |
61% |
25% |
14% |
|
January 1999 |
53% |
36% |
11% |
|
Hillary Clinton |
|||
|
September 1999 |
53% |
40% |
7% |
|
April 1999 |
54% |
33% |
13% |
|
March 26, 1999 |
56% |
33% |
11% |
|
February 1999 |
68% |
27% |
5% |
|
January 1999 |
66% |
32% |
2% |
Fallout Over F.A.L.N.?
Question Wording: President Bill Clinton granted clemency to imprisoned members of the F.A.L.N., a Puerto Rican nationalist group. Has your opinion of Hillary Clinton gotten better, worse, or remained about the same as a result of how she handled this issue?
Registered Voters |
Better |
Worse |
About the Same |
September 1999 |
6% |
18% |
76% |
Carpetbagger vs. Welcome Mat
Question Wording: If Hillary Clinton decides to run for the U.S. Senate in New York State, are you concerned a great deal, somewhat, not very much, or not at all, about the fact that she is not from New York State?
|
Registered Voters |
A Great Deal |
Somewhat |
Not Very Much |
Not At All |
September 1999 |
27% |
24% |
13% |
36% |
July 1999 |
32% |
20% |
11% |
37% |
April 1999 |
29% |
22% |
12% |
37% |
February 1999 |
25% |
21% |
14% |
40% |
How’s the Other Clinton Doing?
Question Wording: Would you rate the job President Bill Clinton is doing in office as excellent, good, fair, or poor?
|
Registered Voters |
Excellent |
Good |
Fair |
Poor |
Unsure/DK |
|
September 1999 |
18% |
42% |
22% |
18% |
0% |
|
July 1999 |
20% |
36% |
29% |
14% |
1% |
|
March 26, 1999 |
20% |
46% |
20% |
13% |
1% |
|
October 1999 |
25% |
43% |
18% |
13% |
1% |
|
April 1998 |
21% |
43% |
21% |
14% |
1% |
|
February 1998 |
22% |
47% |
17% |
13% |
1% |
|
October 1997 |
14% |
47% |
26% |
12% |
1% |
|
March 1997 |
13% |
44% |
27% |
15% |
1% |
|
October 1996 |
8% |
43% |
33% |
16% |
0% |
|
September 1996 |
8% |
43% |
37% |
11% |
1% |
|
March 1996 |
12% |
40% |
30% |
17% |
1% |
|
September 1995 |
6% |
38% |
36% |
18% |
2% |
Nature of the Sample: 717 New York State Registered Voters
This survey was conducted on September 14th and 15th, 1999. 717 registered voters were interviewed in proportion to the voter registration in each county in New York State and adjusted for turnout in comparable elections. All interviews were conducted by telephone. The results for the entire sample are statistically significant at ± 4%. The margin of error increases for cross-tabulations.
|
Race |
Party |
||
|
White |
82% |
Democrat |
44% |
|
Black |
10% |
Republican |
30% |
|
Latino |
6% |
Independent |
21% |
|
Asian |
1% |
Conservative |
3% |
|
Other |
1% |
Liberal |
2% |
|
Religion |
Ideology |
||
|
Protestant |
35% |
Liberal |
24% |
|
Catholic |
45% |
Moderate |
44% |
|
Jewish |
11% |
Conservative |
32% |
|
Other |
9% |
||
|
Gender (weighted) |
Region |
||
|
Men |
48% |
Upstate |
45% |
|
Women |
52% |
New York City |
31% |
|
Suburbs |
24% |