Contact: Dr. Lee M. Miringoff
Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho
Marist College
(914) 575-5050
This Marist College Institute for Public Opinion poll reports:
• First Lady Hillary Clinton and potential GOP rival Rudolph Giuliani are closely matched for the U.S. Senate seat in New York in 2000. There has been an increase in the number of undecided voters since the last poll.
Question Wording: If the next election for U.S. Senate in New York State were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are Rudolph Giuliani, the Republican, and Hillary Clinton, the Democrat?
|
Registered Voters |
Rudolph Giuliani |
Hillary Clinton |
Undecided |
|
April 1999 |
42.8% |
43.5% |
13.7% |
|
March 26, 1999 |
45.5% |
48.1% |
6.4% |
|
March 3, 1999 |
45.5% |
49.7% |
4.9% |
|
February 1999 |
38.1% |
49.0% |
12.9% |
|
January 1999 |
42.0% |
52.5% |
5.5% |
|
April 1999 Region |
|||
|
Upstate |
51.1% |
34.6% |
14.4% |
|
New York City |
31.3% |
59.6% |
9.1% |
|
Suburbs |
42.6% |
39.1% |
18.4% |
|
April 1999 Gender |
|||
|
Men |
44.4% |
41.1% |
14.5% |
|
Women |
41.5% |
45.6% |
12.9% |
|
April 1999 Party |
|||
|
Democrat |
24.1% |
64.8% |
11.0% |
|
Republican |
65.1% |
18.0% |
16.9% |
|
Independent |
47.4% |
41.3% |
11.3% |
|
April 1999 Race |
|||
|
White |
49.4% |
35.1% |
15.5% |
|
Black |
4.0% |
96.0% |
0.0% |
|
Latino |
24.5% |
71.4% |
4.0% |
• Both Hillary Clinton and Rudolph Giuliani are viewed more positively than negatively by New York State’s registered voters.
Question Wording: Please tell me if you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of each of the following:
|
Registered Voters |
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Unsure/Never Heard |
|
Hillary Clinton |
|||
|
April 1999 |
53.4% |
33.4% |
13.1% |
|
March 26, 1999 |
56.5% |
32.8% |
10.7% |
|
February 1999 |
68.4% |
27.2% |
4.4% |
|
January 1999 |
65.5% |
32.3% |
2.2% |
|
Rudolph Giuliani |
|||
|
April 1999 |
50.5% |
27.3% |
22.2% |
|
March 26, 1999 |
50.1% |
32.3% |
17.5% |
|
February 1999 |
60.4% |
25.3% |
14.3% |
|
January 1999 |
53.1% |
36.3% |
10.6% |
• A majority of the New York electorate thinks Hillary Clinton should not run for the U.S. Senate seat in New York in 2000.
Question Wording: Do you think Hillary Clinton should run for the U.S. Senate in New York State in the year 2000, or not?
|
Registered Voters |
Should Run |
Should Not Run |
Undecided |
|
April 1999 |
42.0% |
52.3% |
5.7% |
|
March 26, 1999 |
44.5% |
49.3% |
6.2% |
|
February 1999 |
56.1% |
36.7% |
7.2% |
|
April 1999 Region |
|||
|
Upstate |
40.3% |
57.3% |
2.4% |
|
New York City |
49.9% |
41.9% |
8.2% |
|
Suburbs |
35.3% |
56.1% |
8.6% |
|
April 1999 Gender |
|||
|
Men |
37.7% |
56.4% |
5.9% |
|
Women |
46.0% |
48.5% |
5.5% |
|
April 1999 Party |
|||
|
Democrat |
54.3% |
39.4% |
6.3% |
|
Republican |
27.9% |
68.7% |
3.3% |
|
Independent |
39.2% |
52.0% |
8.9% |
• 49.5% of the New York electorate thinks she will run.
Question Wording: Do you think Hillary Clinton will run for the U.S. Senate in New York State in the year 2000, or not?
|
Registered Voters |
Will Run |
Will Not Run |
Undecided |
|
April 1999 |
49.5% |
28.4% |
22.0% |
|
March 26, 1999 |
60.1% |
23.6% |
16.4% |
|
March 3, 1999 |
54.9% |
31.6% |
13.4% |
|
February 1999 |
64.4% |
17.2% |
18.4% |
• A majority of registered voters in New York State are concerned about the fact that Hillary Clinton is not from New York State. 37.5% of New York voters are not concerned at all.
Question Wording: If Hillary Clinton decides to run for the U.S. Senate in New York State, are you concerned a great deal, somewhat, not very much, or not at all, about the fact that she is not from New York State?
|
Registered Voters |
A Great Deal |
Somewhat |
Not Very Much |
Not At All |
|
April 1999 |
29.2% |
21.6% |
11.7% |
37.5% |
|
February 1999 |
24.9% |
21.5% |
13.7% |
39.9% |
|
April 1999 Region |
||||
|
Upstate |
33.3% |
24.3% |
13.7% |
28.7% |
|
New York City |
18.4% |
17.9% |
11.7% |
52.1% |
|
Suburbs |
35.9% |
21.7% |
7.9% |
34.4% |
|
April 1999 Party |
||||
|
Democrat |
20.2% |
19.6% |
13.4% |
46.8% |
|
Republican |
39.7% |
22.8% |
10.9% |
26.6% |
|
Independent |
26.6% |
26.2% |
10.9% |
36.3% |
• 47.4% of New York State’s registered voters disapprove of Mayor Giuliani’s handling of the shooting death of Amadou Diallo.
Question Wording: Do you approve or disapprove of how Mayor Rudolph Giuliani has handled the shooting death of Amadou Diallo, an African immigrant, by four New York City police officers?
|
Approve |
Disapprove |
Haven’t Heard Enough |
|
|
April 1999 |
27.4% |
47.4% |
25.1% |
|
Region |
|||
|
Upstate |
20.6% |
38.7% |
40.7% |
|
New York City |
27.4% |
64.4% |
8.2% |
|
Suburbs |
40.0% |
42.0% |
18.1% |
|
Party |
|||
|
Democrat |
19.8% |
60.5% |
19.7% |
|
Republican |
34.3% |
36.9% |
28.8% |
|
Independent |
30.2% |
42.1% |
27.7% |
|
Race |
|||
|
White |
31.2% |
39.6% |
29.1% |
|
Black |
3.6% |
90.3% |
6.2% |
|
Latino |
25.8% |
64.6% |
9.6% |
• New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani leads Congresswoman Nita Lowey for the U.S. Senate seat in New York in 2000.
Question Wording: If the next election for U.S. Senate in New York State were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are Rudolph Giuliani, the Republican, and Nita Lowey, the Democrat?
|
Registered Voters |
Rudolph Giuliani |
Nita Lowey |
Undecided |
|
April 1999 |
51.9% |
29.3% |
18.7% |
|
February 1999 |
52.0% |
27.8% |
20.2% |
|
April 1999 Region |
|||
|
Upstate |
59.9% |
17.9% |
22.2% |
|
New York City |
39.9% |
44.4% |
15.8% |
|
Suburbs |
52.5% |
31.5% |
16.0% |
|
April 1999 Party |
|||
|
Democrat |
31.8% |
48.3% |
19.9% |
|
Republican |
74.5% |
10.7% |
14.8% |
|
Independent |
62.3% |
24.3% |
13.4% |
This survey was conducted on April 13th and 14th, 1999. 512 registered voters were interviewed in proportion to the voter registration in each county in New York State and adjusted for turnout in comparable elections. All interviews were conducted by telephone. The results for the entire sample are statistically significant at ±4.5%. The margin of error increases for cross-tabulations.
|
Race |
Party |
||
|
White |
81.1% |
Democrat |
44.3% |
|
Black |
10.8% |
Republican |
31.1% |
|
Latino |
4.7% |
Independent |
18.1% |
|
Asian |
2.0% |
Conservative |
2.7% |
|
Other |
1.4% |
Liberal |
3.1% |
|
Other |
0.6% |
||
|
Religion |
Ideology |
||
|
Protestant |
26.9% |
Liberal |
27.0% |
|
Catholic |
51.8% |
Moderate |
46.8% |
|
Jewish |
11.8% |
Conservative |
26.2% |
|
Other |
9.4% |
||
|
Gender (weighted) |
Region |
||
|
Men |
47.6% |
Upstate |
44.6% |
|
Women |
52.4% |
New York City |
31.1% |
|
Suburbs |
24.4% |