Contact: Dr. Lee M. Miringoff
Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho
Marist College
(914) 575-5050
This Marist College Institute for Public Opinion poll reports:
• First Lady Hillary Clinton edges potential GOP rival Rudy Giuliani for the U.S. Senate seat in New York in 2000. The gap has narrowed from a similar poll conducted two weeks ago. A wide gender gap exists in this contest.
Question Wording: If the next election for U.S. Senate in New York State were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are Rudy Giuliani the Republican, and Hillary Clinton, the Democrat?
|
Registered Voters |
Rudy Giuliani |
Hillary Clinton |
Undecided |
|
March 1999 |
45.5% |
49.7% |
4.9% |
|
February 1999 |
38.1% |
49.0% |
12.9% |
|
January 1999 |
42.0% |
52.5% |
5.5% |
|
Region |
|||
|
Upstate |
51.6% |
42.8% |
5.7% |
|
New York City |
32.7% |
64.1% |
3.2% |
|
Suburbs |
50.6% |
43.8% |
5.6% |
|
Gender |
|||
|
Men |
53.0% |
43.1% |
3.9% |
|
Women |
38.4% |
55.8% |
5.8% |
|
Party |
|||
|
Democrat |
23.5% |
72.2% |
4.4% |
|
Republican |
71.9% |
25.5% |
2.6% |
|
Independent |
48.9% |
43.5% |
7.5% |
|
Religion |
|||
|
Protestant |
48.3% |
45.3% |
6.5% |
|
Catholic |
49.9% |
46.4% |
3.7% |
|
Jewish |
38.3% |
59.7% |
2.0% |
• Hillary Clinton leads former Senator Alfonse D’Amato and Congressman Rick Lazio by wide margins.
Question Wording: If the next election for U.S. Senate in New York State were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are Alfonse D’Amato/Rick Lazio the Republican, and Hillary Clinton, the Democrat?
|
Registered Voters |
Alfonse D’Amato |
Hillary Clinton |
Undecided |
|
March 1999 |
41.0% |
54.8% |
4.2% |
|
January 1999 |
37.7% |
57.2% |
5.1% |
|
Registered Voters |
Rick Lazio |
Hillary Clinton |
Undecided |
|
March 1999 |
33.7% |
57.5% |
8.8% |
• Hillary Clinton is viewed by New York voters as more likely than Rudy Giuliani to work with others in the U.S. Senate, and to care about people. Rudy Giuliani is seen as more likely than Hillary Clinton to be a fighter for New York in Washington. The New York electorate is divided over which one is someone they can trust, would represent all regions of New York State, be closer on the issues, or be a strong supporter of Israel.
Question Wording: As a U.S. Senator from New York, do you think Rudy Giuliani or Hillary Clinton is more likely to:
|
Registered Voters |
Rudy Giuliani |
Hillary Clinton |
Undecided |
|
Be able to work with others in the U.S. Senate |
37.6% |
53.2% |
9.2% |
|
Care about people like you |
41.6% |
49.3% |
9.2% |
|
Be someone you can trust |
40.2% |
43.7% |
16.0% |
|
Represent all regions of New York State |
44.1% |
46.9% |
9.0% |
|
Be closer to you on the issues |
45.2% |
47.2% |
7.6% |
|
Be a strong supporter of Israel |
37.4% |
34.3% |
28.3% |
|
Be a fighter for New York in Washington |
53.4% |
38.4% |
8.2% |
• Hillary Clinton is viewed by the New York electorate as a liberal or a moderate. Rudy Giuliani is seen as a conservative or a moderate.
Question Wording: Politically speaking, do you think Rudy Giuliani/Hillary Clinton is a liberal, moderate, or a conservative?
|
Registered Voters |
Liberal |
Moderate |
Conservative |
Unsure |
|
Rudy Giuliani |
14.8% |
36.1% |
36.2% |
12.9% |
|
Hillary Clinton |
48.5% |
28.5% |
15.1% |
8.0% |
• 54.9% of New York voters think Hillary Clinton will run for the U.S. Senate in New York, a decline from a similar poll two weeks ago.
Question Wording: Do you think Hillary Clinton will run for the U.S. Senate in New York State in the year 2000, or not?
|
Registered Voters |
Will Run |
Will Not Run |
Undecided |
|
March 1999 |
54.9% |
31.6% |
13.4% |
|
February 1999 |
64.4% |
17.2% |
18.4% |
• Rudy Giuliani has a sizeable lead over potential rivals Alfonse D’Amato and Rick Lazio for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in New York in 2000.
Question Wording: If the next Republican primary for U.S. Senate were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are: (Asked of registered Republicans only)
|
Registered Republicans |
Alfonse D’Amato |
Rudy Giuliani |
Rick Lazio |
Other |
Undecided |
|
March 1999 |
28.8% |
56.0% |
7.5% |
0.0% |
7.8% |
|
November 1998 |
31.7% |
34.8% |
3.6% |
16.1% |
13.9% |
This survey was conducted on February 28th and March 1st, 1999. 702 registered voters were interviewed in proportion to the voter registration in each county in New York State and adjusted for turnout in comparable elections. All interviews were conducted by telephone. The results for the entire sample are statistically significant at ±4%. There were 212 Republicans. The results for this sub-sample are statistically significant at ±7%. The margin of error increases for cross-tabulations.
|
Race |
Party |
||
|
White |
80.3% |
Democrat |
42.8% |
|
Black |
11.2% |
Republican |
31.6% |
|
Hispanic |
5.3% |
Non-enrolled |
21.7% |
|
Asian |
2.2% |
Conservative |
2.4% |
|
Other |
1.1% |
Liberal |
1.3% |
|
Other |
0.2% |
||
|
Religion |
Ideology |
||
|
Protestant |
31.4% |
Liberal |
23.2% |
|
Catholic |
49.5% |
Moderate |
45.2% |
|
Jewish |
8.9% |
Conservative |
31.6% |
|
Other |
10.2% |
||
|
Gender (weighted) |
Region |
||
|
Men |
48.0% |
Upstate |
45.5% |
|
Women |
52.0% |
New York City |
30.7% |
|
Suburbs |
23.8% |