New York: Presidential
Campaign 2004
Contact: Dr. Lee M. Miringoff
Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho
845.575.5050
This Marist College Institute for Public Opinion poll reports:
· Democratic Presidential Primary 2004: 26% of New York State Democrats are undecided in their preference for their party’s presidential nominee. Former Vermont Governor Howard Dean has the support of 26% of the state’s registered Democrats and leads each of his rivals by more than 2:1. Among the remaining candidates, only Senator Joseph Lieberman and retired General Wesley Clark have double-digit support.
Question Wording: If the Democratic presidential primary in New York were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:
Registered Democrats |
January 2004 |
October 2003 |
September 2003 |
April 2003 |
December 2002 |
|
Howard Dean |
26% |
18% |
13% |
4% |
1% |
|
Joseph
Lieberman |
12% |
16% |
23% |
21% |
23% |
|
Wesley Clark |
10% |
14% |
6% |
n.a. |
n.a. |
|
Al Sharpton |
8% |
5% |
10% |
10% |
14% |
|
John Kerry |
6% |
8% |
8% |
10% |
20% |
|
Richard
Gephardt |
6% |
10% |
8% |
8% |
11% |
|
John Edwards |
2% |
2% |
3% |
2% |
3% |
|
Carol Moseley
Braun |
2% |
2% |
3% |
2% |
n.a. |
|
Dennis
Kucinich |
2% |
2% |
1% |
2% |
n.a. |
|
Other |
n.a. |
n.a. |
n.a. |
n.a. |
9% |
|
Undecided |
26% |
23% |
23% |
35% |
19% |
·
Intensity of
Support: Only 34% of New York State
Democrats are strongly committed to a candidate for their party’s nomination
for president. 33% say they somewhat
support their choice, and 30% indicate they might vote differently on primary
day.
Question Wording: Would you say you strongly support (candidate), somewhat support him/her, or do you think you might vote differently on primary day?
|
Registered Democrats |
Strongly Support |
Somewhat Support |
Might Vote Differently |
Unsure |
January 2004
|
34% |
33% |
30% |
3% |
Howard Dean
|
40% |
30% |
27% |
3% |
Joseph Lieberman
|
26% |
44% |
24% |
6% |
Wesley Clark
|
36% |
48% |
16% |
0% |
October 2003
|
30% |
34% |
35% |
1% |
September 2003
|
26% |
33% |
39% |
2% |
·
Dean vs. Not
Dean: In head-to-head hypothetical
match-ups, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean leads his opponents in the New
York State Democratic presidential primary.
Question Wording: If the Democratic presidential primary in New York were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are just:
|
Registered Voters |
Howard Dean |
John Kerry |
Unsure |
|
January 2004 |
45% |
28% |
27% |
|
Registered Voters |
Howard Dean |
Richard Gephardt |
Unsure |
|
January 2004 |
48% |
28% |
24% |
|
Registered Voters |
Howard Dean |
Joseph Lieberman |
Unsure |
|
January 2004 |
51% |
33% |
16% |
|
Registered Voters |
Howard Dean |
Wesley Clark |
Unsure |
|
January 2004 |
56% |
21% |
23% |
|
Registered Voters |
Howard Dean |
John Edwards |
Unsure |
|
January 2004 |
58% |
19% |
23% |
|
Registered Voters |
Howard Dean |
Al Sharpton |
Unsure |
|
January 2004 |
72% |
18% |
10% |
·
The Candidate Most Likely To… New York State registered Democrats want a
candidate that can beat President George Bush in November, is closer to them on
the issues, or has values like their own.
Question Wording: Which one of the following is most important to you in deciding whom to support for the Democratic presidential nomination? A candidate who:
|
Registered
Democrats |
January 2004 |
|
Can beat Bush in November |
22% |
|
Is closer to you on the issues |
21% |
|
Has values like your own |
19% |
|
Stands up for what they believe in |
16% |
|
Has the experience to be president |
11% |
|
Is not a typical politician |
5% |
|
Unsure |
6% |
·
The Iraq War:
A majority of New York State Democrats is more likely to support a
candidate who opposed the U.S. war in Iraq.
Supporters of Howard Dean are most likely to vote for a candidate who
opposed the U.S. going to war in Iraq.
Question Wording: Are you more likely to vote for a candidate who supported the U.S. going to war with Iraq or are you more likely to vote for a candidate who opposed the U.S. going to war with Iraq?
|
Registered Democrats |
Candidate Supported War |
Candidate Opposed War |
Unsure |
January 2004
|
35% |
56% |
9% |
Howard Dean
|
27% |
67% |
6% |
Joseph Lieberman
|
51% |
38% |
11% |
Wesley Clark
|
38% |
57% |
5% |
· Approval Rating: President George Bush’s approval rating is currently 52% among New York State's registered voters. This is an increase since a similar poll conducted last September. 47% do not rate his job performance positively.
Question Wording: Would you rate the job President George Bush is doing in office as excellent, good, fair, or poor?
|
Registered Voters |
Excellent/ Good |
Excellent |
Good |
Fair |
Poor |
Unsure/ DK |
|
January 2004 |
52% |
22% |
30% |
19% |
28% |
1% |
|
September 2003 |
44% |
17% |
27% |
22% |
33% |
1% |
|
April 2003 |
58% |
29% |
29% |
19% |
22% |