Marist Institute for Public Opinion

Marist College l Poughkeepsie, N.Y. 12601 l 845.575.5050

 

FOR RELEASE: Tuesday, December 17, 2002

 

Contact:            Dr. Lee M. Miringoff

Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho

Marist College

845.575.5050

 

This Marist College Institute for Public Opinion poll reports:

The Democratic 2004 Presidential Contest:  After Gore

·                  Connecticut Senator Joseph Lieberman and Massachusetts Senator John Kerry are the early leaders for the 2004 New York State Democratic Presidential Primary.  Among registered Democrats, Lieberman has 23% and Kerry has 20%.

·                  Senator Lieberman attracts the greatest share of former supporters of Al Gore.  31% of New York State Democrats who were backing Al Gore now say they support Lieberman.

 

Question Wording: If the next Democratic presidential primary were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:

 

 

Lieberman

Kerry

Sharpton

Gephardt

Daschle

Edwards

Dean

Und.

Democrats

23%

20%

14%

11%

  9%

  3%

  1%

19%

Gore Backers

31%

10%

16%

14%

11%

  4%

  1%

13%

 

·                  59% of New York State Democrats do not want Senator Hillary Clinton to run for president in 2004.

 

Question Wording: Do you want Hillary Clinton to run for president in 2004 or not?

 

 

Yes

No

Unsure

Democrats

37%

59%

  4%

 

·                  57% of New York State Democrats are more likely to vote for a presidential candidate who is endorsed by former President Bill Clinton and 24% are less likely to do so.

 

Question Wording: Are you more or less likely to vote for a candidate for president who has been endorsed by former President Bill Clinton?

 

 

More Likely

Less Likely

No Difference

Unsure

Democrats

57%

24%

17%

  2%

 

President George Bush in New York:  Prospects for 2004

·                  36% of registered voters in New York State definitely plan to vote to re-elect President George Bush and 40% definitely plan to vote against him.  New York voters divide along party lines.

 

Question Wording: Do you definitely plan to vote for George Bush for re-election as president or do you definitely plan to vote against him?

 

Registered Voters

Vote For

Vote Against

Unsure

December 2002

36%

40%

24%

  Democrats

18%

64%

18%

  Republicans

58%

14%

28%

  Non-enrolled

32%

40%

28%

 

·                  President Bush’s approval rating is currently 57% among New York State's registered voters.  42% do not rate his job performance positively. 

 

Question Wording: Would you rate the job President George Bush is doing in office as excellent, good, fair, or poor?

 

 

Registered Voters

Excellent/

Good

 

Excellent

 

Good

 

Fair

 

Poor

Unsure/

DK

  December 2002

57%

24%

33%

23%

19%

  1%

 

Senator Schumer in 2004:  You Win Some, You Lose Some

·                  Senator Charles Schumer leads John Faso but trails Rudy Giuliani in hypothetical match-ups for the U.S. Senate contest in New York in 2004. 

 

Question Wording: If the 2004 election for U.S. Senate in New York were held today, whom

would you support if the candidates are:

 

Registered Voters

Charles Schumer

John Faso

Undecided

December 2002

64%

24%

12%

 

Registered Voters

Charles Schumer

Rudy Giuliani

Undecided

December 2002

37%

58%

  5%

 

·                  Senator Charles Schumer’s approval rating is currently 53% among New York State's registered voters.  36% do not rate his job performance positively.

 

Question Wording: Would you rate the job Senator Charles Schumer is doing in office as excellent, good, fair, or poor?

 

 

Registered Voters

Excellent/

Good

 

Excellent

 

Good

 

Fair

 

Poor

Unsure/

DK

  December 2002

53%

11%

42%

28%

  8%

11%

 

Nature of the Sample: 817 New York State Registered Voters

This survey was conducted from December 4th through 9th, 2002.  817 registered voters were interviewed by telephone in proportion to the registration in each county in the state and adjusted for turnout in comparable elections. There are 371 registered Democrats. Results are statistically significant at ±3.5% for registered voters and ±5% for Democrats. The error margin increases for cross-tabulations.