Marist
Institute for Public Opinion
Marist
College l Poughkeepsie, N.Y. 12601 l
845.575.5050
Contact:
Dr. Lee M. Miringoff
Dr.
Barbara L. Carvalho
845.575.5050
This
Marist College Institute for Public Opinion poll reports:
·
Governor George Pataki leads Comptroller H. Carl McCall by
20% among likely voters for next week’s gubernatorial election.
George Pataki receives 47% compared with H. Carl McCall’s 27%.
Businessman Thomas Golisano has 17%.
·
Among registered voters, George Pataki currently has the
support of 45%, H. Carl McCall receives 28%, and Thomas Golisano has 17%.
Question Wording: If next week’s election
for governor of New York State were held today, whom would you support if the
candidates are:
|
|
Pataki Republican |
McCall Democrat |
Golisano Independence |
Other*
|
Undecided |
|
Likely
Voters |
|
|
|
|
|
|
October
30, 2002 |
47% |
27% |
17% |
2% |
7% |
|
October 1, 2002 |
48% |
32% |
9% |
2% |
9% |
|
September 2002 |
48% |
32% |
11% |
2% |
7% |
|
Likely
w/ Leaners |
|
|
|
|
|
|
October
30, 2002 |
48% |
27% |
19% |
2% |
4% |
|
October 1, 2002 |
49% |
33% |
9% |
2% |
7% |
|
September 2002 |
49% |
34% |
11% |
2% |
4% |
|
Registered
Voters |
|
|
|
|
|
|
October
30, 2002 |
45% |
28% |
17% |
2% |
8% |
|
October
1, 2002 |
47% |
30% |
10% |
2% |
11% |
|
September
2002 |
47% |
30% |
12% |
2% |
9% |
|
May
2002 |
58% |
27% |
6% |
n.a. |
9% |
|
April
2002 |
63% |
29% |
n.a. |
n.a. |
8% |
|
December
2001 |
59% |
29% |
n.a. |
n.a. |
12% |
|
April
2001 |
49% |
39% |
n.a. |
n.a. |
12% |
|
Likely
Voters |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Upstate |
48% |
22% |
20% |
3% |
7% |
|
New York City |
35% |
40% |
14% |
1% |
10% |
|
Suburbs |
57% |
21% |
17% |
1% |
4% |
|
Republican |
65% |
8% |
16% |
2% |
9% |
|
Democrat |
34% |
47% |
14% |
2% |
3% |
|
Non-enrolled |
39% |
20% |
27% |
4% |
10% |
·
Intensity
of Support: 71% of likely
voters are strongly committed to a candidate for governor, 20% say they somewhat
support their choice, and 8% indicate they might vote differently on election
day.
Question Wording:
Would you say you strongly support (candidate), somewhat support him, or do you
think you might vote differently on election day?
|
|
Strongly Support |
Somewhat Support |
Might
Vote Differently |
Unsure |
Likely
Voters
|
|
|
|
|
October 30, 2002
|
71% |
20% |
8% |
1% |
October 1, 2002
|
65% |
24% |
10% |
1% |
September 2002
|
63% |
24% |
11% |
2% |
|
George Pataki |
|
|
|
|
October 30, 2002
|
77% |
17% |
5% |
1% |
October 1,2002
|
69% |
24% |
7% |
0% |
September 2002
|
71% |
19% |
7% |
3% |
|
H. Carl McCall |
|
|
|
|
October 30, 2002
|
73% |
21% |
6% |
0% |
October 1, 2002
|
65% |
24% |
10% |
1% |
September 2002
|
60% |
27% |
12% |
1% |
|
Thomas Golisano |
|
|
|
|
October 30, 2002
|
52% |
29% |
19% |
0% |
October 1, 2002
|
48% |
31% |
17% |
4% |
September 2002
|
36% |
40% |
24% |
0% |
·
The
Golisano Factor: Thomas Golisano draws similar support from both George Pataki and H. Carl
McCall. When Golisano backers are
asked whom they would support if Golisano was not on the ballot, George
Pataki’s support among likely voters increases by 7%, and H. Carl McCall’s
support goes up by 6%.
Question
Wording: How about if the candidates are (Golisano omitted):
|
|
Pataki Republican |
McCall Democrat |
Other[1] |
Undecided |
|
Likely
Voters |
54% |