FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Contact: Dr. Lee M. Miringoff
Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho
Marist College
845.575.5050
The Marist Poll
22 Years of Polling (and never the need for a recount)
The Marist Poll chronicled the New York State race for the U.S. Senate since Senator Moynihan announced he would not seek re-election in November 1998. 20 polls were conducted including a scientifically selected online focus group that assessed the reactions of swing voters to the final debate between Clinton and Lazio. The Marist Poll also monitored trends in the contest for New York State’s 33 electoral votes.
The actual election results confirm the accuracy of the poll numbers. After 22 years (and counting), we recognize we are only as good as our last poll. We look forward to the next election cycle.
After 38 statewide polls measuring Senator Moynihan’s job performance (the last with 54% approval rating) we tip our hat to a gentleman and a scholar. It fits!
The New York Senate Race
|
Lazio |
Clinton |
Otherw |
Undecided |
|
Actual Vote |
43% |
55% |
2% |
n.a. |
Likely w/ Leaners |
||||
Final Poll: Sunday/Monday |
42% |
52% |
3% |
3% |
Thursday/Sunday |
46% |
50% |
2% |
2% |
November 1, 2000 |
46% |
50% |
2% |
2% |
October 13, 2000 |
45% |
50% |
2% |
3% |
September 21, 2000 |
48% |
50% |
n.a. |
2% |
September 12, 2000 |
47% |
50% |
n.a. |
3% |
Likely Voters |
||||
Final Poll: Sunday/Monday |
41% |
51% |
3% |
5% |
Thursday/Sunday |
45% |
49% |
2% |
4% |
November 1, 2000 |
46% |
50% |
1% |
3% |
October 13, 2000 |
44% |
48% |
2% |
6% |
September 21, 2000 |
48% |
48% |
n.a. |
4% |
September 12, 2000 |
46% |
48% |
n.a. |
6% |
New York Presidential Race
|
Bush/ Cheney |
Gore/ Lieberman |
Buchanan/ Foster |
Nader/ LaDuke |
Otherw |
Und. |
|
Actual Vote |
35% |
60% |
1% |
4% |
n.a. |
n.a. |
Likely w/ Leaners |
||||||
Final Poll: Sunday/Monday |
34% |
56% |
1% |
6% |
1% |
2% |
Thursday/Sunday |
37% |
55% |
1% |
4% |
0% |
3% |
|
November 1, 2000 |
40% |
52% |
1% |
3% |
0% |
4% |
|
October 16, 2000 |
36% |
54% |
2% |
3% |
1% |
4% |
|
September 25, 2000 |
33% |
58% |
1% |
5% |
1% |
2% |
September 11, 2000 |
31% |
58% |
1% |
4% |
1% |
5% |
Likely Voters |
||||||
Final Poll: Sunday/Monday |
35% |
55% |
1% |
4% |
0% |
5% |
Thursday/Sunday |
36% |
54% |
1% |
4% |
0% |
5% |
|
November 1, 2000 |
38% |
52% |
1% |
3% |
0% |
6% |
|
October 16, 2000 |
35% |
51% |
2% |
4% |
1% |
7% |
|
September 25, 2000 |
32% |
55% |
1% |
4% |
1% |
7% |
September 11, 2000 |
31% |
56% |
1% |
3% |
1% |
8% |
Nature of the Sample: 914 New York State Registered Voters
This final poll was conducted on November 5th and 6th, 2000. 914 registered voters were interviewed in proportion to the voter registration in each county in New York State and adjusted for turnout in comparable elections. All interviews were conducted by telephone. The results are statistically significant at ± 3.5% for the entire sample. There were 664 likely voters. The results for likely voters are statistically significant at ± 4%. The error margin increases for cross-tabulations.