FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Marist Institute for Public Opinion

Marist College l Poughkeepsie, N.Y. 12601 l (914) 575-5050

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Tuesday, June 20, 2000

Contact: Dr. Lee M. Miringoff

Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho

Marist College

(914) 575-5050

This Marist College Institute for Public Opinion poll reports:

Clinton vs. Lazio: ThisClose

Hillary Clinton and Rick Lazio are closely matched for New York’s U.S. Senate seat in 2000. Hillary Clinton has the support of 42% of New York State’s registered voters, and Rick Lazio receives 42%. 16% are undecided. When undecided voters are asked which candidate they are leaning towards, Hillary Clinton has 46%, and Rick Lazio has 45%. 9% remain undecided.

Question Wording: If the next election for U.S. Senate in New York State were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, and Rick Lazio, the Republican?

Registered Voters

Hillary Clinton

Rick Lazio

Undecided

Registered voters

42%

42%

16%

Reg. voters w/ leaners

46%

45%

9%

Region

Upstate

34%

47%

19%

New York City

64%

20%

16%

Suburbs

29%

60%

11%

Gender

Men

34%

50%

16%

Women

49%

35%

16%

White Women

39%

44%

17%

Non-white Women

84%

8%

8%

Party

Democrat

68%

17%

15%

Republican

17%

72%

11%

Independent

27%

56%

17%

Race

White

33%

51%

16%

Black

88%

9%

3%

Latino

75%

9%

16%

Registered Voters

Hillary Clinton

Rick Lazio

Undecided

Religion

Protestant

44%

44%

12%

Catholic

39%

48%

13%

White Catholic

30%

56%

14%

Jewish

51%

33%

16%

62% of Hillary Clinton’s supporters and 63% of Rick Lazio’s supporters are strongly committed to their candidate.

Question Wording: Would you say you strongly support Hillary Clinton/Rick Lazio, somewhat support her/him, or do you think that you might vote differently on election day?

Registered Voters

Strongly

Support

Somewhat

Support

Might Vote

Differently

Unsure

June 2000

62%

24%

11%

3%

Hillary Clinton Supporters

62%

25%

10%

3%

Rick Lazio Supporters

63%

22%

12%

3%

85% of Hillary Clinton’s supporters indicate that their choice is based upon positive views of her rather than negative feelings about Lazio. In contrast, only 43% of Rick Lazio’s supporters indicate that their choice is based upon positive views of him rather than negative ones towards Clinton.

Question Wording: Hillary Clinton Supporters: Did you choose Hillary Clinton because you are for Hillary Clinton or because you are against Rick Lazio? Rick Lazio Supporters: Did you choose Rick Lazio because you are for Rick Lazio or because you are against Hillary Clinton?

Registered Voters

For

Against

Unsure

June 2000

64%

30%

6%

Hillary Clinton supporters

85%

7%

8%

Rick Lazio supporters

43%

53%

4%

Favorable/Unfavorable Impressions

There has been an increase in the number of New York voters who have a positive impression of Hillary Clinton since last March. Among those New York voters who have an opinion of Rick Lazio more rate him positively than negatively. Many voters do not know enough about him to have an opinion.

Question Wording: Please tell me if you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of each of the following:

Registered Voters

Favorable

Unfavorable

Unsure/Never Heard

Hillary Clinton

June 2000

53%

39%

8%

March 2000

47%

46%

7%

February 24, 2000

50%

40%

10%

February 4, 2000

50%

41%

9%

January 2000

48%

43%

9%

December 1999

52%

38%

10%

October 1999

50%

39%

11%

September 1999

53%

40%

7%

April 1999

54%

33%

13%

March 26, 1999

56%

33%

11%

February 1999

68%

27%

5%

January 1999

66%

32%

2%

Rick Lazio

June 2000

50%

12%

38%

If You Like ‘Em: It’s Hillary on the Issues and It’s Rick’s Personal Qualities

Over one-third of New York voters who have a positive view of Hillary Clinton like her because of her positions on the issues. Topping the list of reasons why New York voters say they like Rick Lazio is that he is from New York, followed by his ethics and honesty.

Question Wording: What is the one thing that you like most about Hillary Clinton/Rick Lazio? (Asked of registered voters that had a favorable opinion)

Registered Voters

Hillary Clinton

Registered Voters

Rick Lazio

Positions on issues

36%

From NYS, understands NY

16%

Personality

12%

Ethical/honest

15%

Ethical/honest

10%

Positions on the issues

12%

Can get things done

8%

Personality

9%

Intelligent

8%

Young, fresh face

7%

Handled problems w/ husband

6%

Not Hillary

6%

Communicates well

2%

Is a Republican

4%

Experienced

2%

Experienced

4%

Is a Democrat

2%

Intelligent

1%

Other

4%

Other

7%

Unsure

10%

Unsure

19%

If You Dislike ‘Em: It’s Hillary’s Personal Qualities and It’s Rick on the Issues

New Yorkers who have a negative view of Hillary Clinton are most concerned about her ethics and honesty, followed by how she handled the problems with her husband. Those who have an unfavorable impression of Rick Lazio cite his positions on the issues and that he is a Republican.

Question Wording: What is the one thing that you dislike most about Hillary Clinton/Rick Lazio? (Asked of registered voters that had an unfavorable opinion)

Registered Voters

Hillary Clinton

Registered Voters

Rick

Lazio

Not ethical/honest

35%

Positions on the issues

25%

Handled problems w/ husband

22%

Is a Republican

12%

Issues

10%

Personality

9%

Not from NY

7%

Not ethical/honest

7%

Personality

7%

Not experienced

6%

Not experienced

5%

Does not know NY

5%

Other

8%

Not Hillary

2%

Unsure

6%

Not intelligent

2%

Other

6%

Unsure

26%

Carpetbagger vs. Welcome Mat

Less than half of New York State registered voters are concerned about the fact that Hillary Clinton is not from New York State. 39% are not concerned at all.

Question Wording: If Hillary Clinton runs for the U.S. Senate in New York State, are you concerned a great deal, somewhat, not very much, or not at all, about the fact that she is not from New York State?

Registered Voters

A Great Deal

Somewhat

Not Very Much

Not At All

June 2000

26%

22%

13%

39%

March 2000

31%

19%

11%

39%

February 24, 2000

26%

21%

12%

41%

February 4, 2000

29%

18%

12%

41%

January 2000

30%

23%

12%

35%

December 1999

33%

24%

8%

35%

October 1999

26%

24%

11%

39%

September 1999

27%

24%

13%

36%

July 1999

32%

20%

11%

37%

April 1999

29%

22%

12%

37%

February 1999

25%

21%

14%

40%

Hillary vs. Rick: Voters’ Scorecard

New York voters see Hillary Clinton as closer to them on the issues than Rick Lazio. New York voters are divided over which candidate has the experience to get the job done as U.S. Senator.

Question Wording: As a U.S. Senator from New York, do you think Hillary Clinton or Rick Lazio:

Registered Voters

Clinton

Lazio

Undecided

Is closer to you on the issues

45%

36%

19%

Has the right experience to do the job

38%

39%

23%

Nature of the Sample: 606 New York State Registered Voters

This survey was conducted on June 14^th, 15^th, and 19^th, 2000. 606 registered voters were interviewed in proportion to the voter registration in each county in New York State and adjusted for turnout in comparable elections. All interviews were conducted by telephone. The results are statistically significant at ± 4% for the entire sample. The error margin increases for cross-tabulations.

Race		Party
White	79%	Democrat	44%
Black	11%	Republican	30%
Latino	8%	Independent	20%
Asian	2%	Conservative	3%
		Liberal	2%
		Other	1%

Religion		Ideology
Protestant	31%	Liberal	24%
Catholic	47%	Moderate	46%
Jewish	10%	Conservative	30%
Other	12%

Gender (weighted)		Region
Men	48%	Upstate	46%
Women	52%	New York City	30%
		Suburbs	24%

Registered Voters	Hillary Clinton	Rick Lazio	Undecided
Registered voters	42%	42%	16%
Reg. voters w/ leaners	46%	45%	9%
Region
Upstate	34%	47%	19%
New York City	64%	20%	16%
Suburbs	29%	60%	11%
Gender
Men	34%	50%	16%
Women	49%	35%	16%
White Women	39%	44%	17%
Non-white Women	84%	8%	8%
Party
Democrat	68%	17%	15%
Republican	17%	72%	11%
Independent	27%	56%	17%
Race
White	33%	51%	16%
Black	88%	9%	3%
Latino	75%	9%	16%

Registered Voters	Strongly Support	Somewhat Support	Might Vote Differently	Unsure
June 2000	62%	24%	11%	3%
Hillary Clinton Supporters	62%	25%	10%	3%
Rick Lazio Supporters	63%	22%	12%	3%

Registered Voters	For	Against	Unsure
June 2000	64%	30%	6%
Hillary Clinton supporters	85%	7%	8%
Rick Lazio supporters	43%	53%	4%

Registered Voters	Favorable	Unfavorable	Unsure/Never Heard
Hillary Clinton
June 2000	53%	39%	8%
March 2000	47%	46%	7%
February 24, 2000	50%	40%	10%
February 4, 2000	50%	41%	9%
January 2000	48%	43%	9%
December 1999	52%	38%	10%
October 1999	50%	39%	11%
September 1999	53%	40%	7%
April 1999	54%	33%	13%
March 26, 1999	56%	33%	11%
February 1999	68%	27%	5%
January 1999	66%	32%	2%
Rick Lazio
June 2000	50%	12%	38%

Registered Voters	A Great Deal	Somewhat	Not Very Much	Not At All
June 2000	26%	22%	13%	39%
March 2000	31%	19%	11%	39%
February 24, 2000	26%	21%	12%	41%
February 4, 2000	29%	18%	12%	41%
January 2000	30%	23%	12%	35%
December 1999	33%	24%	8%	35%
October 1999	26%	24%	11%	39%
September 1999	27%	24%	13%	36%
July 1999	32%	20%	11%	37%
April 1999	29%	22%	12%	37%
February 1999	25%	21%	14%	40%

Registered Voters	Clinton	Lazio	Undecided
Is closer to you on the issues	45%	36%	19%
Has the right experience to do the job	38%	39%	23%