Marist Institute for Public Opinion
Marist College l Poughkeepsie, N.Y. 12601 l (914) 575-5050
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Thursday, February 24, 2000
Contact: Dr. Lee M. Miringoff
Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho
Marist College
(914) 575-5050
This Marist College Institute for Public Opinion poll reports:
Rudy vs. Hillary: The Mayor Keeps His Lead
Question Wording: If the next election for U.S. Senate in New York State were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are Rudy Giuliani, the Republican, and Hillary Clinton, the Democrat?
Registered Voters |
Rudy Giuliani |
Hillary Clinton |
Undecided |
February 24, 2000 |
47% |
41% |
12% |
February 4, 2000 |
47% |
40% |
13% |
January 2000 |
49% |
40% |
11% |
December 1999 |
49% |
40% |
11% |
October 1999 |
46% |
42% |
12% |
September 1999 |
49% |
40% |
11% |
July 1999 |
47% |
41% |
12% |
April 1999 |
43% |
43% |
14% |
March 26, 1999 |
46% |
48% |
6% |
March 3, 1999 |
45% |
50% |
5% |
February 1999 |
38% |
49% |
13% |
January 1999 |
42% |
52% |
6% |
Registered Voters |
Rudy Giuliani |
Hillary Clinton |
Undecided |
|
Region 02/24/00 |
|||
|
Upstate |
46% |
38% |
16% |
|
New York City |
33% |
57% |
10% |
|
Suburbs |
65% |
28% |
7% |
Registered Voters |
Rudy Giuliani |
Hillary Clinton |
Undecided |
|
Gender 02/24/00 |
|||
|
Men |
51% |
39% |
10% |
|
Women |
43% |
43% |
14% |
|
White Women |
48% |
36% |
16% |
|
Non-white Women |
24% |
70% |
6% |
|
Party 02/24/00 |
|||
|
Democrat |
29% |
62% |
9% |
|
Republican |
73% |
14% |
13% |
|
Independent |
49% |
32% |
19% |
|
Race 02/24/00 |
|||
|
White |
53% |
33% |
14% |
|
Black |
7% |
89% |
4% |
|
Latino |
25% |
65% |
10% |
|
Religion 02/24/00 |
|||
|
Protestant |
45% |
42% |
13% |
|
Catholic |
52% |
35% |
13% |
|
White Catholic |
57% |
30% |
13% |
|
Jewish |
41% |
50% |
9% |
Question Wording: Would you say you strongly support Rudy Giuliani/Hillary Clinton, somewhat support him/her, or do you think that you might vote differently on election day?
|
Registered Voters |
Strongly Support |
Somewhat Support |
Might Vote Differently |
Unsure |
|
February 24, 2000 |
62% |
22% |
13% |
3% |
|
February 4, 2000 |
60% |
25% |
12% |
3% |
|
January 2000 |
54% |
27% |
17% |
2% |
|
December 1999 |
58% |
26% |
14% |
2% |
|
October 1999 |
52% |
30% |
15% |
3% |
Rudy Giuliani Supporters |
||||
|
February 24, 2000 |
65% |
21% |
13% |
1% |
|
February 4, 2000 |
62% |
25% |
11% |
2% |
January 2000 |
56% |
27% |
15% |
2% |
December 1999 |
61% |
23% |
14% |
2% |
October 1999 |
51% |
30% |
15% |
4% |
Hillary Clinton Supporters |
||||
|
February 24, 2000 |
59% |
25% |
12% |
4% |
|
February 4, 2000 |
57% |
26% |
13% |
4% |
January 2000 |
51% |
26% |
20% |
3% |
December 1999 |
54% |
30% |
14% |
2% |
October 1999 |
53% |
31% |
14% |
2% |
Question Wording: Please tell me if you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of each of the following:
|
Registered Voters |
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Unsure/Never Heard |
|
Rudy Giuliani |
|||
|
February 24, 2000 |
60% |
29% |
11% |
|
February 4, 2000 |
54% |
35% |
11% |
|
January 2000 |
61% |
28% |
11% |
|
December 1999 |
60% |
27% |
13% |
|
October 1999 |
51% |
39% |
10% |
|
September 1999 |
58% |
30% |
12% |
|
April 1999 |
51% |
27% |
22% |
|
March 26, 1999 |
50% |
32% |
18% |
|
February 1999 |
61% |
25% |
14% |
|
January 1999 |
53% |
36% |
11% |
|
Hillary Clinton |
|||
|
February 24, 2000 |
50% |
40% |
10% |
|
February 4, 2000 |
50% |
41% |
9% |
|
January 2000 |
48% |
43% |
9% |
|
December 1999 |
52% |
38% |
10% |
|
October 1999 |
50% |
39% |
11% |
|
September 1999 |
53% |
40% |
7% |
|
April 1999 |
54% |
33% |
13% |
|
March 26, 1999 |
56% |
33% |
11% |
|
February 1999 |
68% |
27% |
5% |
|
January 1999 |
66% |
32% |
2% |
A September Primary Anyone?
Question Wording: If a September New York State Republican Primary for U.S. Senate were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are Rudy Giuliani and Rick Lazio? (Registered Republicans Only)
|
Registered Republicans |
Rudy Giuliani |
Rick Lazio |
Other |
Undecided |
|
February 24, 2000 |
75% |
13% |
2% |
10% |
Carpetbagger vs. Welcome Mat
Question Wording: If Hillary Clinton runs for the U.S. Senate in New York State, are you concerned a great deal, somewhat, not very much, or not at all, about the fact that she is not from New York State?
Registered Voters |
A Great Deal |
Somewhat |
Not Very Much |
Not At All |
February 24, 2000 |
26% |
21% |
12% |
41% |
February 4, 2000 |
29% |
18% |
12% |
41% |
January 2000 |
30% |
23% |
12% |
35% |
December 1999 |
33% |
24% |
8% |
35% |
October 1999 |
26% |
24% |
11% |
39% |
September 1999 |
27% |
24% |
13% |
36% |
July 1999 |
32% |
20% |
11% |
37% |
April 1999 |
29% |
22% |
12% |
37% |
February 1999 |
25% |
21% |
14% |
40% |
Nature of the Sample: 602 New York State Registered Voters
This survey was conducted on February 20th and 21st, 2000. 602 registered voters were interviewed in proportion to the voter registration in each county in New York State and adjusted for turnout in comparable elections. All interviews were conducted by telephone. There were 363 registered Republicans which included an oversample. The results are statistically significant at ± 4% for the entire sample, and ± 5% for the question on a September Republican primary. The error margin increases for cross-tabulations.
|
Race |
Party |
||
|
White |
80% |
Democrat |
44% |
|
Black |
11% |
Republican |
32% |
|
Latino |
5% |
Independent |
18% |
|
Asian |
1% |
Conservative |
2% |
|
Other |
3% |
Liberal |
2% |
|
Other |
2% |
||
|
Religion |
Ideology |
||
|
Protestant |
32% |
Liberal |
25% |
|
Catholic |
48% |
Moderate |
43% |
|
Jewish |
9% |
Conservative |
32% |
|
Other |
11% |
||
|
Gender (weighted) |
Region |
||
|
Men |
49% |
Upstate |
44% |
|
Women |
51% |
New York City |
30% |
|
Suburbs |
26% |