Marist Institute for Public Opinion
Marist College l Poughkeepsie, N.Y. 12601 l (914) 575-5050
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Tuesday, January 11, 2000
Contact: Dr. Lee M. Miringoff
Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho
Marist College
(914) 575-5050
This Marist College Institute for Public Opinion poll reports:
Rudy vs. Hillary: The Mayor Keeps His Lead
Question Wording: If the next election for U.S. Senate in New York State were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are Rudy Giuliani, the Republican, and Hillary Clinton, the Democrat?
|
Registered Voters |
Rudy Giuliani |
Hillary Clinton |
Undecided |
January 2000 |
49% |
40% |
11% |
December 1999 |
49% |
40% |
11% |
October 1999 |
46% |
42% |
12% |
September 1999 |
49% |
40% |
11% |
July 1999 |
47% |
41% |
12% |
April 1999 |
43% |
43% |
14% |
March 26, 1999 |
46% |
48% |
6% |
March 3, 1999 |
45% |
50% |
5% |
February 1999 |
38% |
49% |
13% |
January 1999 |
42% |
52% |
6% |
|
Registered Voters |
Rudy Giuliani |
Hillary Clinton |
Undecided |
|
Region 01/00 |
|||
|
Upstate |
54% |
32% |
14% |
|
New York City |
33% |
58% |
9% |
|
Suburbs |
59% |
32% |
9% |
|
Gender 01/00 |
|||
|
Men |
54% |
36% |
10% |
|
Women |
44% |
44% |
12% |
|
Registered Voters |
Rudy Giuliani |
Hillary Clinton |
Undecided |
|
Party 01/00 |
|||
|
Democrat |
27% |
64% |
9% |
|
Republican |
74% |
15% |
11% |
|
Independent |
55% |
32% |
13% |
|
Race 01/00 |
|||
|
White |
56% |
32% |
12% |
|
Black |
6% |
90% |
4% |
|
Latino |
32% |
65% |
3% |
|
Religion 01/00 |
|||
|
Protestant |
49% |
37% |
14% |
|
Catholic |
54% |
38% |
8% |
|
White Catholic |
60% |
31% |
9% |
|
Jewish |
44% |
43% |
13% |
Question Wording: Would you say you strongly support Rudy Giuliani/Hillary Clinton, somewhat support him/her, or do you think that you might vote differently on Election Day?
|
Registered Voters |
Strongly Support |
Somewhat Support |
Might Vote Differently |
Unsure |
|
January 2000 |
54% |
27% |
17% |
2% |
|
December 1999 |
58% |
26% |
14% |
2% |
|
October 1999 |
52% |
30% |
15% |
3% |
September 1999 |
58% |
27% |
12% |
3% |
Rudy Giuliani Supporters |
||||
January 2000 |
56% |
27% |
15% |
2% |
December 1999 |
61% |
23% |
14% |
2% |
October 1999 |
51% |
30% |
15% |
4% |
September 1999 |
59% |
26% |
12% |
3% |
Hillary Clinton Supporters |
||||
January 2000 |
51% |
26% |
20% |
3% |
December 1999 |
54% |
30% |
14% |
2% |
October 1999 |
53% |
31% |
14% |
2% |
September 1999 |
57% |
29% |
12% |
2% |
Question Wording: Please tell me if you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of each of the following:
|
Registered Voters |
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Unsure/Never Heard |
|
Rudy Giuliani |
|||
|
January 2000 |
61% |
28% |
11% |
|
December 1999 |
60% |
27% |
13% |
|
October 1999 |
51% |
39% |
10% |
|
September 1999 |
58% |
30% |
12% |
|
April 1999 |
51% |
27% |
22% |
|
March 26, 1999 |
50% |
32% |
18% |
|
February 1999 |
61% |
25% |
14% |
|
January 1999 |
53% |
36% |
11% |
|
Hillary Clinton |
|||
|
January 2000 |
48% |
43% |
9% |
|
December 1999 |
52% |
38% |
10% |
|
October 1999 |
50% |
39% |
11% |
|
September 1999 |
53% |
40% |
7% |
|
April 1999 |
54% |
33% |
13% |
|
March 26, 1999 |
56% |
33% |
11% |
|
February 1999 |
68% |
27% |
5% |
|
January 1999 |
66% |
32% |
2% |
It’s the Hand New York Voters Are Dealt
Question Wording: Are you generally satisfied with the choice between Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani for U.S. Senate, or would you have liked to see someone else run?
|
Satisfied |
Like to See Someone Else |
Unsure |
|
|
Registered Voters |
45% |
51% |
4% |
Rudy Giuliani Supporters |
39% |
59% |
2% |
Hillary Clinton Supporters |
58% |
38% |
4% |
Rudy vs. Hillary: Voters’ Scorecard
Question Wording: As a U.S. Senator from New York, do you think Rudy Giuliani or Hillary Clinton is more likely to:
Registered Voters |
Giuliani |
Clinton |
Undecided |
Be a fighter for New York in Washington |
59% |
32% |
9% |
Be able to work with others in the U.S. Senate |
43% |
43% |
14% |
Be a strong supporter of Israel |
34% |
32% |
34% |
Carpetbagger vs. Welcome Mat
Question Wording: If Hillary Clinton runs for the U.S. Senate in New York State, are you concerned a great deal, somewhat, not very much, or not at all, about the fact that she is not from New York State?
|
Registered Voters |
A Great Deal |
Somewhat |
Not Very Much |
Not At All |
January 2000 |
30% |
23% |
12% |
35% |
December 1999 |
33% |
24% |
8% |
35% |
October 1999 |
26% |
24% |
11% |
39% |
September 1999 |
27% |
24% |
13% |
36% |
July 1999 |
32% |
20% |
11% |
37% |
April 1999 |
29% |
22% |
12% |
37% |
February 1999 |
25% |
21% |
14% |
40% |
Hillary on the Move: New Yorkers React
Question Wording: Last week Hillary Clinton moved to the Clinton's new home in New York. Do you like the idea that Hillary Clinton has moved to New York or not?
|
Like Idea |
Don’t Like Idea |
Unsure |
|
|
Registered Voters |
52% |
34% |
14% |
Question Wording: Do you think Hillary Clinton decided to move to New York just to run for the U.S. Senate or because she wants to live in this state?
|
Just to Run |
Wants to Live in NYS |
Unsure |
|
|
Registered Voters |
80% |
12% |
8% |
And for You Letterman Fans . . .
Question Wording: Hillary Clinton has been invited to appear on the Late Show with David Letterman. She has not decided whether to appear on the show. Do you think Hillary Clinton should accept David Letterman's invitation to appear on the show, or not?
|
Accept Invitation |
Don’t Accept Invitation |
Unsure |
|
|
Registered Voters |
58% |
24% |
18% |
Nature of the Sample: 621 New York State Registered Voters
This survey was conducted on January 9th and 10th, 2000. 621 registered voters were interviewed in proportion to the voter registration in each county in New York State and adjusted for turnout in comparable elections. All interviews were conducted by telephone. The results for the entire sample are statistically significant at ± 4%. The margin of error increases for cross-tabulations.
|
Race |
Party |
||
|
White |
83% |
Democrat |
45% |
|
Black |
9% |
Republican |
34% |
|
Latino |
5% |
Independent |
16% |
|
Asian |
2% |
Conservative |
3% |
|
Other |
1% |
Liberal |
2% |
|
Religion |
Ideology |
||
|
Protestant |
30% |
Liberal |
26% |
|
Catholic |
49% |
Moderate |
42% |
|
Jewish |
9% |
Conservative |
32% |
|
Other |
12% |
||
|
Gender (weighted) |
Region |
||
|
Men |
48% |
Upstate |
45% |
|
Women |
52% |
New York City |
31% |
|
Suburbs |
24% |