New Contest in Democratic Primary

 for NYC Mayor

 

FOR EMBARGO:  6 P.M. Wednesday, April 27, 2005

 

Contact:           Dr. Lee M. Miringoff

Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho

Marist College

845.575.5050

 

This Marist College Institute for Public Opinion poll reports:

·                    Ferrer and Fields closely matched in Democratic primary for mayor:  After weeks of controversy over his comments about the Amadou Diallo shooting, Former Bronx Borough President Fernando Ferrer now finds himself in a competitive race for the Democratic nomination for mayor with Manhattan Borough President C. Virginia Fields.  Ferrer receives support from 34% of city Democrats for September’s primary compared with 30% for Fields.  Council Speaker Gifford Miller and Congressman Anthony Weiner trail with 12% and 11%, respectively.  13% of Democrats are undecided.

 

Question Wording: If September’s Democratic primary for mayor in New York City were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:

 

 

Registered Democrats

April

2005

March

2005

December 2004

Former Bronx Borough President Fernando Ferrer

34%

39%

38%

Manhattan Borough President C. Virginia Fields

30%

21%

13%

Council Speaker Gifford Miller

12%

10%

11%

Congressman Anthony Weiner

11%

11%

10%

Other

n.a.

n.a.

  4%

Undecided

13%

19%

24%

 

·                    City Democrats are lukewarm to their choice for a nominee:  Only 29% of registered Democrats are strongly committed to their choice for the Democratic nomination for mayor.  This is a decline from a similar poll done just last month when 41% voiced strong support for their candidate.  37% now say they somewhat support their choice, and 32% say they might vote differently on primary day.  2% are unsure.

 

Question Wording: Would you say that you strongly support (candidate name),

somewhat support (candidate name), or do you think that you might vote differently on primary day?

 

 

Registered Democrats

Strongly Support

Somewhat Support

Might Vote Differently

 

Unsure

April 2005

29%

37%

32%

  2%

 Fernando Ferrer

 

 

 

 

   April 2005

30%

36%

32%

  2%

   March 2005

48%

24%

24%

  4%

 C. Virginia Fields

 

 

 

 

   April 2005

29%

37%

33%

  1%

   March 2005

41%

25%

30%

  4%

 Gifford Miller

 

 

 

 

   April 2005

22%

39%

36%

  3%

   March 2005

22%

48%

28%

  2%

 Anthony Weiner

 

 

 

 

   April 2005

33%

39%

25%

  3%

   March 2005

33%

43%

18%

  6%

March 2005

41%

30%

25%

  4%

December 2004

39%

25%

32%

  4%

 

·                    Many Democrats are not satisfied with the slate of candidates for the Democratic nomination for mayor:  45% of city Democrats are satisfied with the current field of candidates vying for the nomination to challenge Mayor Bloomberg in November.  46% would like to see someone else join the list of Democratic mayoralty wannabes.

 

Question Wording: In general, are you satisfied with the candidates who are running for the Democratic nomination for Mayor in New York City or would you like to see someone else get into the race?

 

 

Registered Democrats

Satisfied with Candidates

Like to See Someone Else

 

Unsure

April 2005

45%

46%

  9%

 

·                    Voters turned off by Ferrer’s comments about the Amadou Diallo shooting:  47% of registered voters are less likely to vote for Fernando Ferrer because of his recent comments about the Diallo shooting.  African American voters are especially troubled by his comments.

 

Question Wording: From what you have read or heard, are you more likely or

less likely to vote for Fernando Ferrer following his recent comments about the shooting of Amadou Diallo?

 

 

Registered Voters

More Likely

Less Likely

No difference

 

Unsure

April 2005

15%

47%

18%

20%

Race

 

 

 

 

  White voters

  7%

50%

25%

18%

  African American voters

16%

56%

  8%

20%

  Latino voters

35%

36%

  8%

21%

 

How the Survey Was Conducted

This survey was conducted on April 25th and 26th, 2005.  525 registered voters in New York City were interviewed in proportion to the enrollment in each borough including 327 Democrats. The results for registered voters are statistically significant at ±4.5%, and the results for Democrats are statistically significant at ±5.5%.  The margin of error increases for cross-tabulations.