New Contest in Democratic Primary
for NYC Mayor
Contact: Dr. Lee M. Miringoff
Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho
845.575.5050
This Marist College Institute for Public Opinion poll reports:
· Ferrer and Fields closely matched in Democratic primary for mayor: After weeks of controversy over his comments about the Amadou Diallo shooting, Former Bronx Borough President Fernando Ferrer now finds himself in a competitive race for the Democratic nomination for mayor with Manhattan Borough President C. Virginia Fields. Ferrer receives support from 34% of city Democrats for September’s primary compared with 30% for Fields. Council Speaker Gifford Miller and Congressman Anthony Weiner trail with 12% and 11%, respectively. 13% of Democrats are undecided.
Question Wording: If September’s Democratic primary for mayor in New York City were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:
Registered Democrats |
April 2005 |
March 2005 |
December 2004 |
|
Former Bronx Borough President Fernando Ferrer |
34% |
39% |
38% |
|
Manhattan Borough President C. Virginia Fields |
30% |
21% |
13% |
|
Council Speaker Gifford Miller |
12% |
10% |
11% |
|
Congressman Anthony Weiner |
11% |
11% |
10% |
|
Other |
n.a. |
n.a. |
4% |
|
Undecided |
13% |
19% |
24% |
· City Democrats are lukewarm to their choice for a nominee: Only 29% of registered Democrats are strongly committed to their choice for the Democratic nomination for mayor. This is a decline from a similar poll done just last month when 41% voiced strong support for their candidate. 37% now say they somewhat support their choice, and 32% say they might vote differently on primary day. 2% are unsure.
Question Wording: Would you say that you strongly support (candidate name),
somewhat support (candidate name), or do you think that you might vote differently on primary day?
|
Registered Democrats |
Strongly Support |
Somewhat Support |
Might Vote Differently |
Unsure |
|
April 2005 |
29% |
37% |
32% |
2% |
|
Fernando Ferrer |
|
|
|
|
|
April 2005 |
30% |
36% |
32% |
2% |
|
March 2005 |
48% |
24% |
24% |
4% |
|
C. Virginia Fields |
|
|
|
|
|
April 2005 |
29% |
37% |
33% |
1% |
|
March 2005 |
41% |
25% |
30% |
4% |
|
Gifford Miller |
|
|
|
|
|
April 2005 |
22% |
39% |
36% |
3% |
|
March 2005 |
22% |
48% |
28% |
2% |
|
Anthony Weiner |
|
|
|
|
|
April 2005 |
33% |
39% |
25% |
3% |
|
March 2005 |
33% |
43% |
18% |
6% |
|
March 2005 |
41% |
30% |
25% |
4% |
|
December 2004 |
39% |
25% |
32% |
4% |
· Many Democrats are not satisfied with the slate of candidates for the Democratic nomination for mayor: 45% of city Democrats are satisfied with the current field of candidates vying for the nomination to challenge Mayor Bloomberg in November. 46% would like to see someone else join the list of Democratic mayoralty wannabes.
Question Wording: In general, are you satisfied with the candidates who are running for the Democratic nomination for Mayor in New York City or would you like to see someone else get into the race?
|
Registered Democrats |
Satisfied with Candidates |
Like to See Someone Else |
Unsure |
April 2005 |
45% |
46% |
9% |
· Voters turned off by Ferrer’s comments about the Amadou Diallo shooting: 47% of registered voters are less likely to vote for Fernando Ferrer because of his recent comments about the Diallo shooting. African American voters are especially troubled by his comments.
Question Wording: From what you have read or heard, are you more likely or
less likely to vote for Fernando Ferrer following his recent comments about the shooting of Amadou Diallo?
|
Registered Voters |
More Likely |
Less Likely |
No difference |
Unsure |
|
April 2005 |
15% |
47% |
18% |
20% |
|
Race |
|
|
|
|
|
White voters |
7% |
50% |
25% |
18% |
|
African American voters |
16% |
56% |
8% |
20% |
|
Latino voters |
35% |
36% |
8% |
21% |
This survey was conducted on April 25th and 26th, 2005. 525 registered voters in New York City were interviewed in proportion to the enrollment in each borough including 327 Democrats. The results for registered voters are statistically significant at ±4.5%, and the results for Democrats are statistically significant at ±5.5%. The margin of error increases for cross-tabulations.