New York City Race for Mayor

EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE:  Tuesday 6:00 p.m. November 1, 2005

All references must be sourced WNBC/Marist Poll

 

Contact:           Dr. Lee M. Miringoff

Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho

Marist College

845.575.5050

 

This WNBC/Marist Poll reports:

·                    Bloomberg outdistances Democratic challenger Ferrer:  With just one week to go before Election Day, Michael Bloomberg has a formidable lead over his Democratic opponent Fernando Ferrer.  Among New York City voters likely to vote next Tuesday, the mayor receives 62% compared with 31% for Ferrer.  Three percent of likely voters plan to support Conservative Party candidate Thomas Ognibene, and 4% are undecided.       

 

Question Wording: If the November election for mayor in New York City were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:

 

 

 

 

Michael Bloomberg Republican

Fernando Ferrer

Democrat

Thomas Ognibene Conservative

 

 

Undecided

Likely Voters

 

 

 

 

November 1, 2005

62%

31%

  3%

  4%

October 2005

59%

32%

  1%

  8%

September 2005

53%

38%

  1%

  8%

Registered Voters

 

 

 

 

November 1, 2005

59%

31%

  3%

  7%

October 2005

56%

33%

  2%

  9%

September 2005

50%

37%

  2%

11%

August 2005

52%

36%

n.a.

12%

July 2005

52%

36%

n.a.

12%

June 10, 2005

45%

46%

n.a.

  9%

June 2, 2005

49%

40%

n.a.

11%

April 2005

51%

38%

n.a.

11%

March 2005

42%

49%

n.a.

  9%

December 2004

39%

51%

n.a.

10%

September 2004

43%

47%

n.a.

10%

April 2004

41%

48%

n.a.

11%

 

·                    Behind the numbers:  Republican Bloomberg leads Democrat Ferrer by 19 points among Democrats likely to vote next week.  Bloomberg receives the support of 57% of likely Democratic voters compared with 38% for Ferrer.  Only 4% of likely Democratic voters are undecided.  Mayor Bloomberg also receives the support of a majority of African American voters and is neck and neck with Fernando Ferrer among Latino voters.

 

Question Wording: If the November election for mayor in New York City were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:

 

 

 

Michael Bloomberg Republican

Fernando Ferrer

Democrat

Thomas Ognibene Conservative

 

 

Undecided

Likely Voters

62%

31%

  3%

  4%

 Party

 

 

 

 

  Democrat

57%

38%

  1%

  4%

  Republican

93%

  3%

  1%

  3%

  Non-enrolled

62%

28%

  6%

  4%

 Race

 

 

 

 

  White

79%

15%

  4%

  2%

  African American

56%

35%

  2%

  7%

  Latino

46%

48%

  1%

  5%

Gender

 

 

 

 

  Men

63%

28%

  4%

  5%

  Women

61%

33%

  2%

  4%

 

·                    Most voters are firmly committed to their choice for mayor:  69% of likely voters who have a preference in the race for mayor strongly support their candidate.  23% say they somewhat support their choice, and only 7% say they might vote differently on Election Day.  One percent is unsure.  74% of Mayor Bloomberg’s supporters say they are firmly committed to him compared with 60% of Fernando Ferrer’s supporters who say they are firmly committed to their choice.

 

Question Wording: Would you say that you strongly support (candidate name),

somewhat support (candidate name), or do you think that you might vote differently on Election Day?

 

 

Likely Voters

Strongly Support

Somewhat Support

Might Vote Differently

 

Unsure

November 1, 2005

69%

23%

  7%

  1%

 Michael Bloomberg

74%

23%

  2%

  1%

 Fernando Ferrer

60%

22%

15%

  3%

October 2005

67%

22%

  9%

  2%

 Michael Bloomberg

71%

20%

  8%

  1%

 Fernando Ferrer

60%

24%

12%

  4%

 

·                 Most voters have a positive impression of Mayor Bloomberg:  71% of New York City’s registered voters have a favorable view of Michael Bloomberg.  Voters are more divided in their impression of Fernando Ferrer.  45% have a positive view of Ferrer, and 41% do not.  14% are unsure how to rate him.

 

Question Wording: In general, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of Michael Bloomberg/Fernando Ferrer?

 

 

Registered Voters

 

Favorable

 

Unfavorable

Unsure/

Never Heard

Michael Bloomberg

 

 

 

 November 1, 2005

71%

24%

  5%

 October 2005

69%

27%

  4%

 September 2005

64%

30%

  6%

Fernando Ferrer

 

 

 

 November 1, 2005

45%

41%

14%

 October 2005

46%

40%

14%

 September 2005

53%

32%

15%

 

·                    Voters believe the city is headed in the right direction:  68% of registered voters believe