New York City Race for Mayor

EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE:  Tuesday 6:00 p.m. September 27, 2005

All references must be sourced WNBC/Marist Poll

 

Contact:           Dr. Lee M. Miringoff

Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho

Marist College

845.575.5050

 

This WNBC/Marist Poll reports:

·                    Bloomberg has comfortable lead over Ferrer in race for mayor:  Michael Bloomberg holds a strong lead in his bid for a second term as New York City’s mayor against his Democratic opponent, former Bronx Borough President Fernando Ferrer.  The mayor receives the support of 53% of city voters likely to vote in November compared with 38% for Ferrer.  One percent of likely voters plan to support Conservative Party candidate Thomas Ognibene, and 8% are undecided.   

 

Question Wording: If the November election for mayor in New York City were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:

 

 

 

 

Michael Bloomberg Republican

Fernando Ferrer

Democrat

Thomas Ognibene Conservative

 

 

Undecided

September 2005

 

 

 

 

  Likely Voters

53%

38%

  1%

  8%

  Registered Voters

50%

37%

  2%

11%

Registered Voters

 

 

 

 

August 2005

52%

36%

n.a.

12%

July 2005

52%

36%

n.a.

12%

June 10, 2005

45%

46%

n.a.

  9%

June 2, 2005

49%

40%

n.a.

11%

April 2005

51%

38%

n.a.

11%

March 2005

42%

49%

n.a.

  9%

December 2004

39%

51%

n.a.

10%

September 2004

43%

47%

n.a.

10%

April 2004

41%

48%

n.a.

11%

 

·                    Behind the numbers:  Despite calls for party unity among Democratic Party leaders, Republican Bloomberg actually edges Democrat Ferrer 49% to 44% among Democrats likely to vote this fall.  Only 7% of likely Democratic voters are undecided.  Mayor Bloomberg also receives substantial support among African American voters, a group Fernando Ferrer needs to bring back into the Democratic fold.  In fact, compared with the exit poll conducted in 2001, Bloomberg has doubled his support among African American voters from 25% four years ago to 50% in today’s poll.    

 

Question Wording: If the November election for mayor in New York City were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:

 

 

 

Michael Bloomberg Republican

Fernando Ferrer

Democrat

Thomas Ognibene Conservative

 

 

Undecided

Likely Voters

53%

38%

  1%

  8%

 Party

 

 

 

 

  Democrat

49%

44%

<1%

  7%

  Republican

70%

20%

  4%

  6%

  Non-enrolled

51%

30%

<1%

19%

 Race

 

 

 

 

  White

64%

27%

  3%

  6%

  African American

50%

42%

<1%

  8%

  Latino

33%

62%

<1%

  5%

 

 

 

2001 Exit Poll

Michael Bloomberg Republican

 

Mark Green

Democrat

 

Alan Hevesi

Liberal

 

 

Other

African American

25%

71%

  1%

  3%

 

·                    Many voters strongly support their choice for mayor:  67% of likely voters who have a preference in the race for mayor are firmly committed to their candidate.  23% say they somewhat support their choice, and only 9% say they might vote differently on Election Day.  One percent is unsure.  72% of Mayor Bloomberg’s supporters say they are strongly committed to him compared with 62% of Fernando Ferrer’s supporters who say they are strongly committed to their choice.

 

Question Wording: Would you say that you strongly support (candidate name),

somewhat support (candidate name), or do you think that you might vote differently on Election Day?

 

 

Likely Voters

Strongly Support

Somewhat Support

Might Vote Differently

 

Unsure

September 2005

67%

23%

  9%

  1%

 Michael Bloomberg

72%

22%

  6%

<1%

 Fernando Ferrer

62%

24%

13%

  1%

 

·                 Bloomberg and Ferrer are viewed positively by city voters:  A majority of New York City’s registered voters, 64%, have a favorable view of Michael Bloomberg, and 53% have a favorable impression of Fernando Ferrer.

 

Question Wording: In general, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of Michael Bloomberg/Fernando Ferrer?

 

Registered Voters

Favorable

Unfavorable

Unsure/Never Heard

Michael Bloomberg

64%

30%

  6%

Fernando Ferrer

53%

32%

15%

 

·                 One on One:  A majority of New York City’s registered voters including those from different racial backgrounds, think Michael Bloomberg is more likely than Fernando Ferrer as mayor to run the city well, better represent New York City in Albany and Washington,  be a better leader for New York, and unify the city and get it working together.  A majority of city voters also believe Bloomberg would be more likely than Ferrer to move the city forward in the next four years and understand the problems facing the city.  But a majority of Latino voters believe Fernando Ferrer is more likely to move the city forward if elected mayor, and both African American and Latino voters divide over who better understands the city’s problems.  There is also a racial divide on two other issues.  Many white voters think Mayor Bloomberg is more likely to represent all five boroughs and care about people like themselves compared with African American and Latino voters who are more likely to think Fernando Ferrer will.

 

Question Wording: Do you think Michael Bloomberg or Fernando Ferrer is more likely to do each of the following as mayor:

 

Registered Voters

Bloomberg

Ferrer

Unsure

Run city government well

63%

28%

  9%

 White

73%

19%

  8%

 African American

62%

30%

  8%

 Latino

53%

42%

  5%

Better represent NYC in Albany & DC

63%

29%

  8%

 White

70%

21%

  9%

 African American

57%

37%

  6%

 Latino

55%

42%

  3%

Be a better leader for New York

57%

30%

13%

 White

66%

23%

11%

 African American

51%

33%

16%

 Latino

49%

43%

  8%

Unify the city and get it working together

54%

34%

12%

 White