NYC 2005 Democratic Primary Race for Mayor

EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE:  Monday 6:00 p.m. September 12, 2005

All references must be sourced WNBC/Marist Poll

 

Contact:           Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho

Marist College

845.575.5050

This WNBC/Marist Poll reports:

·                    Fernando Ferrer is narrowly ahead in the Democratic primary for mayor:  Former Bronx Borough President Fernando Ferrer narrowly leads his closest opponent Congressman Anthony Weiner by six points among Democrats likely to vote in tomorrow’s primary for mayor.   Ferrer receives the support of 35% of likely Democratic voters compared with 29% for Weiner.  Manhattan Borough President C. Virginia Fields and Council Speaker Gifford Miller trail with 14% each.  8% of likely Democratic voters are undecided.  When undecided likely Democratic voters who lean toward a candidate are included in the results, Fernando Ferrer receives 36%, Anthony Weiner has 29%, C. Virginia Fields has 16%, and Gifford Miller receives 15%.  Only 4% of likely Democratic voters remain undecided.

 

Question Wording: If the Democratic primary for mayor in New York City were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:

 

 

Ferrer

Weiner

Fields

Miller

Undecided

Likely Democrats

 

 

 

 

 

  September 12, 2005

35%

29%

14%

14%

  8%

  September 9, 2005

32%

30%

15%

13%

10%

  September 5, 2005

33%

20%

14%

17%

16%

Likely Dems w/ leaners

 

 

 

 

 

  September 12, 2005

36%

29%

16%

15%

  4%

  September 9, 2005

33%

31%

17%

14%

  5%

  September 5, 2005

34%

21%

15%

17%

13%

 

Registered Democrats

Ferrer

Weiner

Fields

Miller

Undecided

September 12, 2005

34%

29%

13%

12%

12%

September 9, 2005

34%

27%

13%

14%

12%

September 5, 2005

32%

17%

13%

15%

23%

August 2005

30%

13%

19%

15%

23%

July 2005

36%

14%

19%

14%

17%

June 2005

38%

12%

24%

13%

13%

 

·                    Democratic candidates still getting only lukewarm support:  Many Democrats who have a preference do not strongly support their candidate.  48% of registered Democrats who support a candidate say they are strongly committed to their choice.  32% say they somewhat support their choice, and 18% say they might vote differently on primary day.  2% are unsure.  52% of Fernando Ferrer’s supporters say they are firmly committed to their choice although this is down from 67% four years ago.  Only 40% of Anthony Weiner’s supporters are strongly committed to him.

 

Question Wording: Would you say that you strongly support (candidate name),

somewhat support (candidate name), or do you think that you might vote differently on primary day?

 

 

Registered Democrats

Strongly Support

Somewhat Support

Might Vote Differently

 

Unsure

  September 12, 2005

48%

32%

18%

  2%

  September 7, 2001

54%

24%

19%

  3%

 Fernando Ferrer

 

 

 

 

  September 12, 2005

52%

29%

16%

  3%

  September 9, 2005

43%

34%

20%

  3%

  September 5, 2005

43%

26%

29%

  2%

  August 2005

35%

29%

33%

  3%

  September 7, 2001

67%

18%

12%

  3%

 Anthony Weiner

 

 

 

 

  September 12, 2005

40%

38%

21%

  1%

  September 9, 2005

32%

43%

24%

  1%

  September 5, 2005

36%

36%

26%

  2%

  August 2005

26%

31%

43%

<1%

 C. Virginia Fields

 

 

 

 

  September 12, 2005

53%

28%

19%

<1%

  September 9, 2005

48%

28%

23%

  1%

  September 5, 2005

44%

23%

32%

  1%

  August 2005

29%

37%

25%

  9%

 Gifford Miller

 

 

 

 

  September 12, 2005

46%

33%

19%

  2%

  September 9, 2005

42%

33%

22%

  3%

  September 5, 2005

35%

35%

27%

  3%

  August 2005

23%

39%

36%

  2%

Registered Democrats

 

 

 

 

  September 9, 2005

40%

36%

22%

  2%

  September 5, 2005

40%

30%

28%

  2%

  August 2005

30%

33%

33%

  4%

 

·                    If there is a runoff between Ferrer and Weiner… If no one receives at least 40% of the vote in tomorrow’s Democratic primary for mayor, the top two finishers will face each other in a runoff two weeks later.  A first look at a possible runoff between the two favorites reveals Fernando Ferrer with an early edge over Anthony Weiner.

 

Question Wording: If none of the candidates in the Democratic primary for mayor gets 40% of the vote, there is a runoff election between the two candidates with the most votes. If there is a runoff, whom would you support if the candidates are: