NYC 2005 Democratic Primary Race
for Mayor
All
references must be sourced WNBC/Marist Poll
Contact: Dr. Lee M. Miringoff
Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho
845.575.5050
This WNBC/Marist Poll reports:
· Congressman Weiner takes command of second place: Congressman Anthony Weiner has surged ahead of Council Speaker Gifford Miller and Manhattan Borough President C. Virginia Fields to take sole possession of second place in next Tuesday’s Democratic primary. Although former Bronx Borough President Fernando Ferrer still leads the field, he has not gained much ground towards the 40% needed to avoid a runoff. Among registered voters, Fernando Ferrer receives 34% compared with 27% for Anthony Weiner. Gifford Miller follows with 14%, and C. Virginia Fields has 13%. 12% of registered Democrats remain undecided.
· Among likely Democrats it’s neck and neck: Among Democrats who are likely to vote on primary day, the contest becomes a statistical tossup. Mr. Ferrer has the support of 32% of likely Democratic voters, and Mr. Weiner receives 30%. Manhattan Borough President Fields and Council Speaker Miller lag with 15% and 13%, respectively. 10% of likely Democratic voters are undecided. When undecided likely Democratic voters who lean towards a candidate are included in the results, Fernando Ferrer receives 33%, Anthony Weiner has 31%, C. Virginia Fields has 17%, and Gifford Miller receives 14%. Only 5% of likely Democratic voters remain undecided.
Question
Wording: If the Democratic primary for mayor in
|
Registered
Democrats |
Ferrer |
Weiner |
Miller |
Fields |
Undecided |
|
September 9, 2005 |
34% |
27% |
14% |
13% |
12% |
|
September 5,
2005 |
32% |
17% |
15% |
13% |
23% |
|
August 2005 |
30% |
13% |
15% |
19% |
23% |
|
July 2005 |
36% |
14% |
14% |
19% |
17% |
|
June 2005 |
38% |
12% |
13% |
24% |
13% |
|
|
Ferrer |
Weiner |
Miller |
Fields |
Undecided |
|
Likely
Democrats |
|
|
|
|
|
|
September 9, 2005 |
32% |
30% |
13% |
15% |
10% |
|
September 5, 2005 |
33% |
20% |
17% |
14% |
16% |
|
Likely
Dems w/ leaners |
|
|
|
|
|
|
September 9, 2005 |
33% |
31% |
14% |
17% |
5% |
|
September 5, 2005 |
34% |
21% |
17% |
15% |
13% |
· Many Democrats still not wowed: Many Democrats who have a preference are not firmly committed to their candidate. Only 40% of registered Democrats who support a candidate say they are strongly committed to their choice. 36% say they somewhat support their choice, and 22% say they might vote differently on primary day. 2% are unsure. A comparison among the candidates reveals that supporters of Anthony Weiner are not as strongly committed to their choice, and supporters of C. Virginia Fields are most enthusiastic about their decision.
Question Wording: Would you say that you strongly support (candidate name),
somewhat support (candidate name), or do you think that you might vote differently on primary day?
|
Registered Democrats |
Strongly Support |
Somewhat Support |
Might Vote Differently |
Unsure |
|
September
9, 2005 |
40% |
36% |
22% |
2% |
|
September 7, 2001 |
54% |
24% |
19% |
3% |
|
Fernando Ferrer |
|
|
|
|
|
September
9, 2005 |
43% |
34% |
20% |
3% |
|
September
5, 2005 |
43% |
26% |
29% |
2% |
|
35% |
29% |
33% |
3% |
|
|
July 2005 |
34% |
34% |
28% |
4% |
|
June 2005 |
43% |
28% |
26% |
3% |
|
April
2005 |
30% |
36% |
32% |
2% |
|
March
2005 |
48% |
24% |
24% |
4% |
|
Anthony
Weiner |
|
|
|
|
|
September 9, 2005 |
32% |
43% |
24% |
1% |
|
September 5, 2005 |
36% |
36% |
26% |
2% |
|
August 2005 |
26% |
31% |
43% |
<1% |
|
July 2005 |
19% |
42% |
36% |
3% |
|
June 2005 |
26% |
32% |
39% |
3% |
|
April 2005 |
33% |
39% |
25% |
3% |
|
March 2005 |
33% |
43% |
18% |
6% |
|
Gifford Miller |
|
|
|
|
|
September
9, 2005 |
42% |
33% |
22% |
3% |
|
September
5, 2005 |
35% |
35% |
27% |
3% |
|
August
2005 |
23% |
39% |
36% |
2% |
|
July 2005 |
26% |
41% |
27% |
6% |
|
June 2005 |
25% |
32% |
39% |
4% |
|
April
2005 |
22% |
39% |
36% |
3% |
|
March
2005 |
22% |
48% |
28% |
2% |
|
C. Virginia
Fields |
|
|
|
|
|
September 9, 2005 |
48% |
28% |
23% |
1% |
|
September 5, 2005 |
44% |
23% |
32% |
1% |
|
August 2005 |
29% |
37% |
25% |
9% |