Contact: Dr. Lee M. Miringoff
Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho
845.575.5050
This Marist College Institute for Public Opinion poll reports:
· Woulda, coulda, shoulda? Had Republican Michael Bloomberg sought the Democratic nomination for mayor he would handily defeat all four of the candidates running in next week’s Democratic primary. When registered Democrats are asked to choose a candidate for mayor, 42% would give their party’s nod to Mayor Bloomberg.
Question
Wording: If Mayor Bloomberg were a candidate in the Democratic primary for
mayor in
Registered Democrats |
September 2005 |
Mayor Michael Bloomberg
|
42% |
|
Former |
23% |
|
Congressman Anthony Weiner |
10% |
|
Manhattan Borough
President C. Virginia Fields |
8% |
|
Council Speaker Gifford
Miller |
7% |
|
Undecided |
10% |
· Jockeying for position: Although former Bronx Borough President Fernando Ferrer still leads the field of Democratic candidates on the ballot for next week’s primary, he hasn’t gotten much closer to the 40% needed to avoid a run-off. Ferrer has the support of 32% of registered Democrats. His three competitors are closely matched for second place. Congressman Anthony Weiner receives 17%, and Council Speaker Gifford Miller has 15%. Manhattan Borough President C. Virginia Fields has slipped to 13%. 23% of Democrats are undecided.
· Likely Democratic voters: Among Democrats who are likely to vote on primary day, Fernando Ferrer receives 33% compared with 20% for Congressman Weiner, 17% for Council Speaker Miller, and 14% for Manhattan Borough President Fields. 16% of likely Democratic voters remain undecided.
Question
Wording: If the Democratic primary for mayor in
Registered Democrats |
Ferrer |
Weiner |
Miller |
Fields |
Undecided |
|
September 5, 2005 |
32% |
17% |
15% |
13% |
23% |
|
August 2005 |
30% |
13% |
15% |
19% |
23% |
|
July 2005 |
36% |
14% |
14% |
19% |
17% |
|
June 2005 |
38% |
12% |
13% |
24% |
13% |
September 5, 2005 |
Ferrer |
Weiner |
Miller |
Fields |
Undecided |
Likely Democrats
|
33% |
20% |
17% |
14% |
16% |
Likely Dems w/ leaners
|
34% |
21% |
17% |
15% |
13% |
· Many Democrats still waiting to be wooed: In addition to the 23% of registered Democrats who are undecided about their choice in next week’s primary for mayor, many Democrats who have made up their mind are not firmly committed to their candidate. Only 40% of registered Democrats who support a candidate say they are strongly committed to their choice compared with 54% who felt this way in the first week of September, 2001. 30% say they somewhat support their choice, and 28% say they might vote differently on primary day. 2% are unsure.
Question Wording: Would you say that you strongly support (candidate name),
somewhat support (candidate name), or do you think that you might vote differently on primary day?
|
Registered Democrats |
Strongly Support |
Somewhat Support |
Might Vote Differently |
Unsure |
|
September 5, 2005 |
40% |
30% |
28% |
2% |
|
September 7, 2001 |
54% |
24% |
19% |
3% |
|
Fernando Ferrer |
|
|
|
|
|
September
2005 |
43% |
26% |
29% |
2% |
|
35% |
29% |
33% |
3% |
|
|
July 2005 |
34% |
34% |
28% |
4% |
|
June 2005 |
43% |
28% |
26% |
3% |
|
April 2005 |
30% |
36% |
32% |
2% |
|
March
2005 |
48% |
24% |
24% |
4% |
|
Anthony Weiner |
|
|
|
|
|
September 2005 |
36% |
36% |
26% |
2% |
|
August 2005 |
26% |
31% |
43% |
<1% |
|
July 2005 |
19% |
42% |
36% |
3% |
|
June 2005 |
26% |
32% |
39% |
3% |
|
April 2005 |
33% |
39% |
25% |
3% |
|
March 2005 |
33% |
43% |
18% |
6% |
|
Gifford Miller |
|
|
|
|
|
September 2005 |
35% |
35% |
27% |
3% |
|
August 2005 |