New York City Democrats and the Race for Mayor

EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE:  Monday 6:30 p.m. September 5, 2005

 

Contact:           Dr. Lee M. Miringoff

Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho

Marist College

845.575.5050

 

This Marist College Institute for Public Opinion poll reports:

·                    Woulda, coulda, shoulda?  Had Republican Michael Bloomberg sought the Democratic nomination for mayor he would handily defeat all four of the candidates running in next week’s Democratic primary.  When registered Democrats are asked to choose a candidate for mayor, 42% would give their party’s nod to Mayor Bloomberg.

 

Question Wording: If Mayor Bloomberg were a candidate in the Democratic primary for mayor in New York City, whom would you support if the candidates are:

 

 

Registered Democrats

September

2005

Mayor Michael Bloomberg

42%

Former Bronx Borough President Fernando Ferrer

23%

Congressman Anthony Weiner

10%

Manhattan Borough President C. Virginia Fields

  8%

Council Speaker Gifford Miller

  7%

Undecided

10%

 

·                    Jockeying for position:  Although former Bronx Borough President Fernando Ferrer still leads the field of Democratic candidates on the ballot for next week’s primary, he hasn’t gotten much closer to the 40% needed to avoid a run-off. Ferrer has the support of 32% of registered Democrats.  His three competitors are closely matched for second place.  Congressman Anthony Weiner receives 17%, and Council Speaker Gifford Miller has 15%.  Manhattan Borough President C. Virginia Fields has slipped to 13%.  23% of Democrats are undecided. 

·                    Likely Democratic voters:  Among Democrats who are likely to vote on primary day, Fernando Ferrer receives 33% compared with 20% for Congressman Weiner, 17% for Council Speaker Miller, and 14% for Manhattan Borough President Fields.  16% of likely Democratic voters remain undecided.

 

Question Wording: If the Democratic primary for mayor in New York City were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:

 

Registered Democrats

Ferrer

Weiner

Miller

Fields

Undecided

September 5, 2005

32%

17%

15%

13%

23%

August 2005

30%

13%

15%

19%

23%

July 2005

36%

14%

14%

19%

17%

June 2005

38%

12%

13%

24%

13%

 

September 5, 2005

Ferrer

Weiner

Miller

Fields

Undecided

Likely Democrats

33%

20%

17%

14%

16%

Likely Dems w/ leaners

34%

21%

17%

15%

13%

 

·                    Many Democrats still waiting to be wooed:  In addition to the 23% of registered Democrats who are undecided about their choice in next week’s primary for mayor, many Democrats who have made up their mind are not firmly committed to their candidate.  Only 40% of registered Democrats who support a candidate say they are strongly committed to their choice compared with 54% who felt this way in the first week of September, 2001.  30% say they somewhat support their choice, and 28% say they might vote differently on primary day.  2% are unsure.

 

Question Wording: Would you say that you strongly support (candidate name),

somewhat support (candidate name), or do you think that you might vote differently on primary day?

 

 

Registered Democrats

Strongly Support

Somewhat Support

Might Vote Differently

 

Unsure

September 5, 2005

40%

30%

28%

  2%

September 7, 2001

54%

24%

19%

  3%

 Fernando Ferrer

 

 

 

 

   September 2005

43%

26%

29%

  2%

   August 2005

35%

29%

33%

  3%

   July 2005

34%

34%

28%

  4%

   June 2005

43%

28%

26%

  3%

   April 2005

30%

36%

32%

  2%

   March 2005

48%

24%

24%

  4%

 Anthony Weiner

 

 

 

 

   September 2005

36%

36%

26%

  2%

   August 2005

26%

31%

43%

<1%

   July 2005

19%

42%

36%

  3%

   June 2005

26%

32%

39%

  3%

   April 2005

33%

39%

25%

  3%

   March 2005

33%

43%

18%

  6%

 Gifford Miller

 

 

 

 

   September 2005

35%

35%

27%

  3%

   August 2005