Stadium Decision Shakes Up NYC Mayor’s Race

EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE: Friday 6:00 p.m. June 10, 2005

Contact: Dr. Lee M. Miringoff

Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho

Marist College

845.575.5050

This Marist College Institute for Public Opinion poll reports:

· Mayor Bloomberg’s lead against potential Democratic rivals dwindles: Mayor Bloomberg’s re-election prospects have been setback by Albany’s decision to not fund the West Side stadium project. The mayor, who had a sizeable lead against each of his Democratic contenders only last week, now runs neck and neck with all but one of them. Former Bronx Borough President Fernando Ferrer, who trailed Michael Bloomberg by 9 points, currently has the support of 46% of the city’s registered voters compared with 45% for the mayor. Michael Bloomberg is closely matched against Manhattan Borough President C. Virginia Fields and Council Speaker Gifford Miller. The mayor maintains a comfortable lead only against Congressman Anthony Weiner.

Question Wording: If the November election for mayor in New York City were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:

Registered Voters	Michael Bloomberg, the Republican	Fernando Ferrer, the Democrat	Undecided
After decision	45%	46%	9%
Before decision	49%	40%	11%
April 2005	51%	38%	11%
March 2005	42%	49%	9%
December 2004	39%	51%	10%
September 2004	43%	47%	10%
April 2004	41%	48%	11%

Registered Voters	Michael Bloomberg, the Republican	C. Virginia Fields, the Democrat	Undecided
After decision	45%	43%	12%
Before decision	49%	41%	10%
April 2005	47%	41%	12%
March 2005	45%	42%	13%
December 2004	44%	44%	12%

Registered Voters	Michael Bloomberg, the Republican	Gifford Miller, the Democrat	Undecided
After decision	46%	41%	13%
Before decision	53%	36%	11%
April 2005	50%	36%	14%
March 2005	44%	42%	14%
December 2004	42%	40%	18%

Registered Voters	Michael Bloomberg, the Republican	Anthony Weiner, the Democrat	Undecided
After decision	49%	36%	15%
Before decision	52%	34%	14%
April 2005	48%	36%	16%
March 2005	45%	41%	14%
December 2004	44%	39%	17%

· Voters think it’s for the mayor to lose: Most city voters believe Mayor Bloomberg is likely to win re-election. Regardless of their choice, 65% think he will come out on top in November.

Question Wording: Regardless of whom you are planning to vote for, who do you think will win the election for mayor:

Registered Voters	After Decision
Michael Bloomberg	65%
Fernando Ferrer	18%
Virginia Fields	3%
Anthony Weiner	3%
Gifford Miller	2%
Unsure	9%

· City voters divide over whether they would like to see a new face in City Hall: 49% of city voters think it’s time to elect someone other than Michael Bloomberg to the city’s top post. 45% think he deserves to be re-elected mayor.

Question Wording: Overall, do you think Mayor Bloomberg deserves to be re-elected mayor or is it time to elect someone else?

Registered Voters	Deserves Re-election	Time to Elect Someone Else	Unsure
After decision	45%	49%	6%
Before decision	48%	46%	6%
April 2005	47%	48%	5%
March 2005	39%	56%	5%
December 2004	42%	53%	5%

· If it’s 2012…many voters think it will be Paris: City voters support bringing the Olympics to New York. But, following the decision in Albany to not fund the West Side stadium, many now believe Paris will be the winner in its bid to host the 2012 summer games. Last week, voters thought it could be a tossup between New York and Paris.

Question Wording: Do you think hosting the 2012 Summer Olympics is a good thing or a bad thing for New York City?

Registered Voters	Good Thing	Bad Thing	Unsure
After decision	60%	35%	5%
Before decision	57%	36%	7%

Question Wording: Which city do you think will be awarded the 2012 Summer Olympics:

Registered Voters	After Decision	Before Decision
Paris	48%	33%
New York	21%	37%
London	11%	8%
Madrid	10%	8%
Moscow	3%	6%
Unsure	7%	8%

· Campaign for mayor seen as getting more contentious: 49% of the city’s voters believe the candidates are spending their time attacking each other and 34% believe they are focusing on the issues. Last week, voters were more divided about the tone of the campaign.

Question Wording: In general, do you feel that the candidates for mayor have spent more time talking about their positions on the issues or attacking their opponents?

Registered Voters	Talking Issues	Attacking	Both	Neither	Unsure
After decision	34%	49%	2%	3%	12%
Before decision	36%	41%	3%	4%	16%

· Mayor’s job performance rating slips after stadium decision: Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s approval rating, his combined excellent and good scores, slipped to 49% after the decision to not fund the stadium was made on Monday. Prior to Albany’s decision, the mayor’s approval rating had reached a high point of 55%.

Question Wording: Would you rate the job Mayor Michael Bloomberg is doing in office as excellent, good, fair, or poor?

Registered Voters	Excellent/Good	Excellent	Good	Fair	Poor	Unsure
After decision	49%	11%	38%	35%	15%	1%
Before decision	55%	12%	43%	32%	12%	1%
April 2005	48%	8%	40%	35%	16%	1%
March 2005	43%	8%	35%	34%	21%	2%