Mayor Bloomberg and Campaign ‘05
Contact: Dr. Lee M. Miringoff
Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho
845.575.5050
This Marist College Institute for Public Opinion poll reports:
· Match-ups for mayor: Former Bronx Borough President Fernando Ferrer leads Mayor Michael Bloomberg by seven points in the race for mayor among New York City’s registered voters. Ferrer receives the support of 49% of the city’s registered voters compared with 42% for Mayor Bloomberg. Mayor Bloomberg is closely matched with potential rivals Manhattan Borough President C. Virginia Fields, Council Speaker Gifford Miller, and Congressman Anthony Weiner.
Question Wording: If November’s election for mayor in New York City were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:
|
Registered Voters |
Michael Bloomberg, the Republican |
Fernando Ferrer, the Democrat |
Undecided |
March 2005 |
42% |
49% |
9% |
December 2004 |
39% |
51% |
10% |
September 2004 |
43% |
47% |
10% |
April 2004 |
41% |
48% |
11% |
|
Registered Voters |
Michael Bloomberg, the Republican |
C. Virginia Fields, the Democrat |
Undecided |
March 2005 |
45% |
42% |
13% |
December 2004 |
44% |
44% |
12% |
|
Registered Voters |
Michael Bloomberg, the Republican |
Gifford Miller, the Democrat |
Undecided |
March 2005 |
44% |
42% |
14% |
December 2004 |
42% |
40% |
18% |
|
Registered Voters |
Michael Bloomberg, the Republican |
Anthony Weiner, the Democrat |
Undecided |
March 2005 |
45% |
41% |
14% |
December 2004 |
44% |
39% |
17% |
· Majority would like to elect someone else to city’s top job: 56% of city voters think it’s time for a change and would like to see someone other than Michael Bloomberg elected as mayor. 39% of voters think Mayor Bloomberg deserves re-election, and 5% are unsure.
Question Wording: Overall, do you think Mayor Bloomberg deserves to be
re-elected mayor or is it time to elect someone else?
|
Registered Voters |
Deserves Re-election |
Time to Elect Someone Else |
Unsure |
March 2005 |
39% |
56% |
5% |
December 2004 |
42% |
53% |
5% |
· Mayor’s job performance rating is sluggish: Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s approval rating is 43% among New York City’s registered voters, numerically down but statistically unchanged from the 46% he received in a similar poll conducted in December. There is a significant racial divide. A majority of white voters give the mayor positive scores compared with less than one in three African American or Latino voters who give the mayor a thumbs up.
Question Wording: Would you rate the job Mayor Michael Bloomberg is doing in office as excellent, good, fair, or poor?
|
Registered Voters |
Excellent/Good |
Excellent |
Good |
Fair |
Poor |
Unsure |
March 2005 |
43% |
8% |
35% |
34% |
21% |
2% |
December 2004 |
46% |
6% |
40% |
35% |
18% |
1% |
September 2004 |
42% |
7% |
35% |
35% |
21% |
2% |
April 2004 |
40% |
7% |
33% |
38% |
19% |
3% |
|
Borough |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bronx |
37% |
6% |
31% |
35% |
27% |
1% |
|
Brooklyn |
36% |
5% |
31% |
36% |
27% |
1% |
|
Manhattan |
49% |
12% |
37% |
33% |
16% |
2% |
|
Queens |
48% |
7% |
41% |
32% |
17% |
3% |
|
Staten Island |
48% |
13% |
35% |
29% |
23% |
<1% |
|
Party |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Democrat |
39% |
6% |
33% |
37% |
22% |
2% |
|
Republican |
55% |
13% |
42% |
27% |
18% |
<1% |
|
Non-enrolled |
45% |
8% |
37% |
30% |
24% |
1% |
|
Race |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
White |
54% |
11% |
43% |
30% |
15% |
1% |
|
African American |
29% |
2% |
27% |
42% |
27% |
2% |
|
Latino |
29% |
5% |
24% |
37% |
31% |
3% |
· Education, jobs, and economic development are chief concerns for city voters: Education is uppermost on voters’ minds when thinking about the priorities facing the next mayor. It is followed by jobs, economic development, poverty and homelessness, crime, taxes, and race relations.
Question Wording: Do you think the top priority for the next mayor should be
|
Registered Voters |
March 2005 |
|
Education |
37% |
|
Jobs |
20% |
|
Economic development |
18% |
|
Poverty and homelessness |
12% |
|
Crime |
7% |
|
Taxes |
4% |
|
Ethnic and racial relations |
2% |
· But voters give mayor mixed reviews on his handling of these top issues: Only 40% of city voters approve of the job the mayor has done with the public schools, and 37% think he has done a good job reducing unemployment in the city. 51% do approve of his handling of economic development in the city but when asked specifically about the West Side stadium project support for the mayor plummets. Most New York City voters do think the mayor has done a good job handling security against a terror attack. The mayor also receives high marks from voters for his handling of crime, and race relations. A majority of voters disapprove of his handling of homelessness, the city’s budget, taxes, the issue of same sex marriages in the city, public transportation, the contracts with the city’s employee labor unions, and poverty.
Question Wording: Do you approve or disapprove of how Mayor Michael Bloomberg is handling each of the following:
|
Registered Voters |
Approve |
Disapprove |
Unsure |
|
Security against a terror attack |
70% |
23% |
7% |
|
Crime |
69% |
27% |
4% |
|
Race relations |
57% |
32% |
11% |
|
Economic development |
51% |
42% |
7% |
|
Homelessness |
40% |
51% |
9% |
|
The public schools |
40% |
53% |
7% |
|
The city’s budget |
39% |
51% |
10% |
|
Taxes |
39% |
53% |
8% |
|
The issue of same sex marriage in NYC |
37% |
46% |
17% |
|
Unemployment |
37% |
51% |
12% |
|
Public transportation |
37% |
57% |
6% |
|
Contracts with city employee labor unions |
34% |
47% |
19% |
|
The West Side stadium |
31% |
61% |
8% |
|
Poverty |
28% |
60% |
12% |
· Working hard but not connecting: Many New York City voters think Mayor Bloomberg is working hard at his job, fights for the city, and understands the city’s problems. But voters divide over whether he’s a good leader for New York. A majority do not think he can unify the city or cares about people like themselves.
Question Wording: Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements about Mayor Michael Bloomberg:
|
Registered Voters |
Agree |
Disagree |
Unsure |
|
Is working hard as mayor |
70% |
29% |
1% |
|
Fights for New York City |
64% |
32% |
4% |
|
Understands the problems facing New York City |
56% |
43% |
1% |
|
Is a good leader for New York |
50% |
47% |
3% |
|
Can unify the city and get it working together |
43% |
52% |
5% |
|
Cares about people like you |
36% |
58% |
6% |
Will labels count? In a city where one out of three registered voters considers themselves to be liberal, only 18% of New York City’s registered voters view the mayor as liberal. Mayor Bloomberg is viewed as moderate by 50% of registered voters and as conservative by 32%. In contrast, 39% see Fernando Ferrer as politically liberal, 44% see him as moderate, and only 17% view him as conservative.
Question Wording: Politically speaking, do you think Mayor Bloomberg/Fernando Ferrer is a liberal, moderate, or a conservative? Politically speaking, do you consider yourself to be a liberal, a moderate, or a conservative?
|
|
Liberal |
Moderate |
Conservative |
|
Mayor Bloomberg |
|
|
|
|
March 2005 |
18% |
50% |
32% |
|
December 2004 |
19% |
45% |
36% |
|
Fernando Ferrer |
|
|
|
|
March 2005 |
39% |
44% |
17% |
|
Registered voters |
34% |
40% |
26% |
· 2005 Democratic primary for mayor: Former Bronx Borough President Fernando Ferrer leads the field of Democratic hopefuls for September’s primary for mayor. Nearly one in five Democrats is undecided.
Question Wording: If September’s Democratic primary for mayor in New York City were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:
Registered Democrats |
March 2005 |
December 2004 |
|
Former Bronx Borough President Fernando Ferrer |
39% |
38% |
|
Manhattan Borough President C. Virginia Fields |
21% |
13% |
|
Congressman Anthony Weiner |
11% |
10% |
|
Council Speaker Gifford Miller |
10% |
11% |
|
Other |
n.a. |
4% |
|
Undecided |
19% |
24% |
Intensity of support: 41% of registered Democrats are strongly committed to their choice among potential candidates for the Democratic nomination for mayor. 30% say they somewhat support their choice, and 25% say they might vote differently on primary day. 4% are unsure.
Question Wording: Would you say that you strongly support (candidate name),
somewhat support (candidate name), or do you think that you might vote differently on primary day?
|
Registered Democrats |
Strongly Support |
Somewhat Support |
Might Vote Differently |
Unsure |
|
March 2005 |
41% |
30% |
25% |
4% |
|
Fernando Ferrer |
48% |
24% |
24% |
4% |
|
C. Virginia Fields |
41% |