FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Marist Institute for Public Opinion

Marist College l Poughkeepsie, N.Y. 12601 l 845.575.5050

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Friday, November 2, 2001

Contact: Dr. Lee M. Miringoff

Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho

Marist College

845.575.5050

Marist College Poll: The Race for New York City Mayor

Likely Voters: Among those expected to vote in Tuesday’s election for mayor, Mark Green has the support of 46% compared with 42% for Michael Bloomberg. 12% are undecided. When undecided voters are asked whom they are leaning towards, the results become 48% for Green and 45% for Bloomberg. 7% remain unsure.

Registered Voters: Among all registered voters Mark Green has the support of 45% compared with 39% for Michael Bloomberg. 15% are undecided and 1% mentions someone else.

Question Wording: If next week's election for mayor of New York City were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:

Bloomberg

Green

Other

Unsure

Likely Voters

42%

46%

0%

12%

Likely Voters with Leaners

45%

48%

0%

7%

Registered Voters

39%

45%

1%

15%

Likely Voters

Bloomberg

Green

Other

Unsure

Borough

Bronx

35%

48%

2%

15%

Brooklyn

38%

52%

0%

10%

Manhattan

35%

57%

0%

8%

Queens

50%

36%

0%

14%

Staten Island

60%

21%

3%

16%

Party

Democrats

28%

60%

0%

12%

Republicans

86%

11%

1%

2%

Non-enrolled

58%

23%

0%

19%

Race

White

57%

33%

0%

10%

African American

17%

74%

0%

9%

Latino

35%

48%

1%

16%

Religion

Protestant

32%

58%

0%

10%

Catholic

56%

33%

1%

10%

Jewish

40%

49%

0%

11%

White Catholic

71%

19%

1%

9%

Income

Less than $50,000

34%

54%

1%

11%

$50,000 or more

53%

38%

1%

8%

Intensity of Support: 68% of likely voters are strongly committed to a candidate for mayor, 22% say they only somewhat support their choice, and 8% indicate they might vote differently on election day. The support for Michael Bloomberg is more firmly committed than the support for Mark Green.

Question Wording: Would you say you strongly support (candidate name), somewhat support him, or do you think you might vote differently on election day?

Strongly

Support

Somewhat

Support

Might Vote

Differently

Unsure

Likely Voters

68%

22%

8%

2%

By Candidate

Michael Bloomberg

75%

18%

6%

1%

Mark Green

62%

25%

9%

4%

For or Against: 76% of Mark Green’s supporters indicate that their choice is based upon positive views of him rather than negative feelings about Michael Bloomberg. 70% of Bloomberg’s supporters indicate that their choice is based upon positive views of him rather than negative ones towards Green.

Question Wording: Michael Bloomberg Supporters: Did you choose Michael Bloomberg because you are for Michael Bloomberg or because you are against Mark Green? Mark Green Supporters: Did you choose Mark Green because you are for Mark Green or because you are against Michael Bloomberg?

For

Choice

Against Other Candidate

Unsure

Likely Voters

73%

20%

7%

By Candidate

Michael Bloomberg

70%

23%

7%

Mark Green

76%

16%

8%

Voters Rate the Candidates

Those likely to vote on election day view the candidates for mayor more favorably than unfavorably.

Question Wording: Please tell me if you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of each of the following:

Likely Voters

Favorable

Unfavorable

Unsure/Never Heard

Michael Bloomberg

62%

24%

14%

Mark Green

58%

29%

13%

How the Survey Was Conducted

This survey was conducted from October 29^th through October 31^st, 2001. 782 registered voters in New York City were interviewed in proportion to the voter registration in each borough. All interviews were conducted by telephone. The results are statistically significant at ± 3.5%. 435 likely voters were identified. The results for this sub-sample are statistically significant at ± 5%. The margin of error increases for cross-tabulations.

	Bloomberg	Green	Other	Unsure
Likely Voters	42%	46%	0%	12%
Likely Voters with Leaners	45%	48%	0%	7%
Registered Voters	39%	45%	1%	15%

	Strongly Support	Somewhat Support	Might Vote Differently	Unsure
Likely Voters	68%	22%	8%	2%
By Candidate
Michael Bloomberg	75%	18%	6%	1%
Mark Green	62%	25%	9%	4%

	For Choice	Against Other Candidate	Unsure
Likely Voters	73%	20%	7%
By Candidate
Michael Bloomberg	70%	23%	7%
Mark Green	76%	16%	8%

Likely Voters	Favorable	Unfavorable	Unsure/Never Heard
Michael Bloomberg	62%	24%	14%
Mark Green	58%	29%	13%