FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Marist Institute for Public Opinion

Marist College l Poughkeepsie, N.Y. 12601 l 845.575.5050

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Friday, October 5, 2001

Contact: Dr. Lee M. Miringoff

Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho

Marist College

845.575.5050

This Marist College Institute for Public Opinion poll reports:

Democratic Run-off for Mayor: It’sThisClose

Likely Democratic Voters: Mark Green and Fernando Ferrer are closely matched for Thursday’s Democratic run-off for mayor among those expected to vote. Both Mark Green and Fernando Ferrer have the support of 45% of likely Democratic voters. 9% are undecided and 1% mentions someone else. When these undecided voters are asked whom they are leaning towards, the results become 48% for Green and 45% for Ferrer. 6% remain unsure and 1% mentions someone else.

All Registered Democrats: Among all registered Democrats including those leaning towards a candidate, Green has the support of 48% compared with 44% for Ferrer. 7% are unsure and 1% mentions someone else.

Question Wording: If the Democratic run-off for mayor were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:

Mark

Green

Fernando Ferrer

Other

Unsure

Likely Democrats

45%

45%

1%

9%

Likely Democrats w/ Leaners

48%

45%

1%

6%

All Registered Democrats w/ Leaners

48%

44%

1%

7%

Intensity of Support: 56% of registered Democrats are strongly committed to a candidate for the run-off, 29% say they only somewhat support their choice, and 12% indicate they might vote differently on the day of the run-off. The support for Fernando Ferrer is more firmly committed than the support for Mark Green.

Question Wording: Would you say you strongly support (candidate name), somewhat support him, or do you think you might vote differently on the day of the run-off?

Strongly

Support

Somewhat

Support

Might Vote

Differently

Unsure

Registered Democrats

56%

29%

12%

3%

By Candidate

Fernando Ferrer

64%

26%

9%

1%

Mark Green

48%

32%

16%

4%

Morning Line for November’s Election for Mayor

Both Ferrer and Green lead Republican candidate Michael Bloomberg for the general election in November.

Question Wording: If November's election for mayor of New York City were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:

Registered Voters

Bloomberg

Ferrer

Undecided

October 2001

37%

51%

12%

August 2001

33%

49%

18%

June 2001

26%

49%

25%

Registered Voters

Bloomberg

Green

Undecided

October 2001

31%

53%

16%

August 2001

28%

56%

16%

June 2001

22%

60%

18%

And What About Mayor Giuliani?

Term Limits: 61% of New York City voters do not want to eliminate term limits.

Question Wording: Do you think term limits in New York City should be eliminated to allow Mayor Rudy Giuliani to seek re-election?

Registered Voters

Yes

No

Unsure

October 2001

34%

61%

5%

September 25, 2001

40%

52%

8%

September 20, 2001

33%

57%

10%

Three Month Extension: Although a majority of New York City residents want to extend Mayor Giuliani’s time in office, Democrats likely to vote in next Thursday’s run-off election do not share that view.

Question Wording: Do you support or oppose postponing the inauguration of the new mayor until April 1st of next year to extend Mayor Rudy Giuliani's time in office for three months?

Support

Oppose

Unsure

NYC Residents

54%

42%

4%

Registered Voters

54%

42%

4%

Registered Democrats

47%

49%

4%

Likely Democrats

37%

58%

5%

How the Survey Was Conducted

This survey was conducted from October 2^nd through October 4^th, 2001. 1275 residents of New York City were interviewed in proportion to the population in each borough. All interviews were conducted by telephone. The results are statistically significant at ± 3%. 891 registered voters (± 3.5%), 578 registered Democrats (± 4%), and 310 likely Democratic voters (± 5.5%) were identified. The margin of error increases for cross-tabulations.

	Mark Green	Fernando Ferrer	Other	Unsure
Likely Democrats	45%	45%	1%	9%
Likely Democrats w/ Leaners	48%	45%	1%	6%
All Registered Democrats w/ Leaners	48%	44%	1%	7%

	Strongly Support	Somewhat Support	Might Vote Differently	Unsure
Registered Democrats	56%	29%	12%	3%
By Candidate
Fernando Ferrer	64%	26%	9%	1%
Mark Green	48%	32%	16%	4%

Registered Voters	Bloomberg	Ferrer	Undecided
October 2001	37%	51%	12%
August 2001	33%	49%	18%
June 2001	26%	49%	25%
Registered Voters	Bloomberg	Green	Undecided
October 2001	31%	53%	16%
August 2001	28%	56%	16%
June 2001	22%	60%	18%

	Support	Oppose	Unsure
NYC Residents	54%	42%	4%
Registered Voters	54%	42%	4%
Registered Democrats	47%	49%	4%
Likely Democrats	37%	58%	5%