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Marist Institute for Public Opinion

Marist College l Poughkeepsie, N.Y. 12601 l 845.575.5050

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Thursday, November 30, 2000

Contact: Dr. Lee M. Miringoff

Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho

Marist College

(914) 575-5050

New York City

This Marist College Institute for Public Opinion poll reports:

Morning Line: Democrats 2001

Mark Green tops the list of potential candidates for next year’s New York City Democratic Primary for mayor, although the largest number of Democrats is undecided. Fernando Ferrer, Alan Hevesi, and Peter Vallone attract double-digit support. The order of preference among these four Democrats remains unchanged when Reverend Al Sharpton is included in the match-up.

Question Wording: If the Democratic primary for Mayor in 2001 were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:

Democrats

Mark

Green

Fernando Ferrer

Alan

Hevesi

Peter

Vallone

Other

Unsure

December 2000

27%

15%

12%

10%

34%

Question Wording: Whom would you support if the candidates are:

Democrats

Mark

Green

Fernando Ferrer

Alan

Hevesi

Al

Sharpton

Peter

Vallone

Other

Unsure

December 2000

23%

13%

12%

11%

9%

1%

31%

NYC Registered Voters Rate the Field

Mark Green, Peter Vallone, Fernando Ferrer, Alan Hevesi, and Herman Badillo are all viewed more favorably than unfavorably by registered voters citywide. Most New York City voters do not know enough about Michael Bloomberg or John Ravitz to offer an opinion. More voters view Reverend Al Sharpton negatively than positively.

Question Wording: Please tell me if you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of each of the following:

Registered Voters

Favorable

Unfavorable

Unsure/Never Heard

Herman Badillo

32%

21%

47%

Michael Bloomberg

16%

10%

74%

Fernando Ferrer

44%

12%

44%

Mark Green

55%

16%

29%

Alan Hevesi

41%

11%

48%

John Ravitz

10%

8%

82%

Al Sharpton

30%

61%

9%

Peter Vallone

45%

16%

39%

Priorities for the Next Mayor

Improving the city’s public schools is the overwhelming choice of registered voters as the top priority for the next mayor.

Question Wording: Do you think the top priority for the next mayor should be to:

Registered Voters

Reduce

Crime

Reduce Racial

Tension

Improve City’s Economy

Improve Public Schools

Unsure

December 2000

13%

14%

10%

59%

4%

Direction of the City

64% of the city’s electorate thinks things in New York City are going in the right direction and 25% think things are going in the wrong direction. 11% are unsure.

Question Wording: Thinking about the way things are going in New York City, do you feel things are going in the right direction or that things are going in the wrong direction:

Registered Voters

Right Direction

Wrong Direction

Unsure

December 2000

64%

25%

11%

October 1999

62%

29%

9%

September 1997

64%

27%

9%

Mayor President Clinton?

City voters reacted negatively to the media speculation that President Clinton might run for mayor of New York. 51% do not want President Clinton to run for mayor.

Question Wording: Do you want Bill Clinton to run for New York City mayor next year?

Registered Voters

Yes

No

Unsure

December 2000

44%

51%

5%

Mayor Giuliani’s Job Performance

Mayor Rudolph Giuliani’s approval rating is 56% among the city’s registered voters. 24% of the electorate rates the job he is doing as excellent, 32% as good, 22% as fair, and 21% as poor. 1% is unsure. In a previous poll conducted last fall, 53% approved of the job Mayor Giuliani was doing.

Question Wording: Would you rate the job Mayor Rudolph Giuliani is doing in office as excellent, good, fair, or poor?

Registered Voters

Excellent

Good

Fair

Poor

Unsure/DK

December 2000

24%

32%

22%

21%

1%

October 1999

21%

32%

28%

18%

1%

March 1999

18%

32%

27%

22%

1%

October 1997

19%

42%

28%

10%

1%

September 1997

20%

46%

25%

8%

1%

February 1997

17%

38%

31%

12%

2%

September 1996

10%

33%

37%

16%

4%

March 1996

14%

33%

31%

20%

2%

December 1995

8%

27%

39%

24%

2%

April 1995

11%

33%

31%

22%

3%

December 1994

12%

39%

31%

13%

5%

December 2000

Registered Voters

Excellent/Good

Fair/Poor

Unsure

Borough

Bronx

37%

62%

1%

Brooklyn

55%

43%

2%

Manhattan

57%

42%

1%

Queens

65%

34%

1%

Staten Island

70%

27%

3%

Party

Democrat

48%

51%

1%

Republican

85%

15%

0%

Non-enrolled

61%

38%

1%

Race

White

72%

27%

1%

Black

26%

73%

1%

Latino

43%

56%

1%

Religion

Protestant

42%

56%

2%

Catholic

61%

38%

1%

White Catholic

77%

23%

0%

Jewish

71%

29%

0%

Gender

Men

59%

40%

1%

Women

54%

45%

1%

How the Survey Was Conducted

This survey was conducted on November 27^th and 28^th, 2000. 657 registered voters in New York City were interviewed in proportion to the enrollment in each borough. All interviews were conducted by telephone. The results are statistically significant at ± 4%. There were 418 registered Democrats. The results for this sub-sample are statistically significant at ± 5%. The margin of error increases for cross-tabulations.

Nature of the Sample: 657 New York City Registered Voters
Race		Borough
White	57%	Bronx	15%
Black	23%	Brooklyn	30%
Latino	14%	Manhattan	25%
Asian	4%	Queens	24%
Other	2%	Staten Island	6%

Gender (weighted)		Party
Men	45%	Democrat	68%
Women	55%	Republican	14%
		Non-enrolled	15%
		Conservative	1%
		Liberal	2%

Registered Voters	Favorable	Unfavorable	Unsure/Never Heard
Herman Badillo	32%	21%	47%
Michael Bloomberg	16%	10%	74%
Fernando Ferrer	44%	12%	44%
Mark Green	55%	16%	29%
Alan Hevesi	41%	11%	48%
John Ravitz	10%	8%	82%
Al Sharpton	30%	61%	9%
Peter Vallone	45%	16%	39%

Registered Voters	Reduce Crime	Reduce Racial Tension	Improve City’s Economy	Improve Public Schools	Unsure
December 2000	13%	14%	10%	59%	4%

Registered Voters	Right Direction	Wrong Direction	Unsure
December 2000	64%	25%	11%
October 1999	62%	29%	9%
September 1997	64%	27%	9%

Registered Voters	Excellent	Good	Fair	Poor	Unsure/DK
December 2000	24%	32%	22%	21%	1%
October 1999	21%	32%	28%	18%	1%
March 1999	18%	32%	27%	22%	1%
October 1997	19%	42%	28%	10%	1%
September 1997	20%	46%	25%	8%	1%
February 1997	17%	38%	31%	12%	2%
September 1996	10%	33%	37%	16%	4%
March 1996	14%	33%	31%	20%	2%
December 1995	8%	27%	39%	24%	2%
April 1995	11%	33%	31%	22%	3%
December 1994	12%	39%	31%	13%	5%

	December 2000
Registered Voters	Excellent/Good	Fair/Poor	Unsure
Borough
Bronx	37%	62%	1%
Brooklyn	55%	43%	2%
Manhattan	57%	42%	1%
Queens	65%	34%	1%
Staten Island	70%	27%	3%
Party
Democrat	48%	51%	1%
Republican	85%	15%	0%
Non-enrolled	61%	38%	1%
Race
White	72%	27%	1%
Black	26%	73%	1%
Latino	43%	56%	1%
Religion
Protestant	42%	56%	2%
Catholic	61%	38%	1%
White Catholic	77%	23%	0%
Jewish	71%	29%	0%
Gender
Men	59%	40%	1%
Women	54%	45%	1%