We Need to Make Up Our Minds, Too

Lee M. Miringoff

Director

Marist College Poll

October 26, 2000

This election season has included a great deal of post-debate spin involving who has won or lost and how voters have reacted to the various confrontations. Television news programs following the presidential debates, for example, have incorporated a variety of public pulse-taking measures to assist in their analysis. At center stage have been efforts, often through focus groups, to assess the reactions of undecided voters deemed to be of critical importance in the closing days of the hotly contested campaign.

A more in depth analysis of this approach raises questions about its usefulness. Are these voters the right group to help the public, press, pols, pundits, and pollsters figure out who won and lost the debate, and why? First, there just aren’t that many undecided voters left on the table. The number of fence-sitters has dwindled and many "undecided" voters at this late stage in the campaign might not vote. Second, in the closing days of the campaign, the candidates are targeting their base support to ensure a good turnout of the party faithful, relegating strictly "undecided" voters to a less significant role.

Poll-watchers in this presidential election season have experienced a bumpy ride as poll results from the daily horserace trackings bounce along. This is less about a volatile undecided segment of the electorate and more about soft supporters of Gore and Bush sloshing back and forth in reaction to short-term campaign events. This group of voters, often women and independents, may hold the key to who moves into the White House next January.

In an attempt to address some of these matters, the Marist College Poll has joined forces with NewsChannel 4 in New York City, the host of the final Clinton-Lazio debate on Friday, October 27^th, to gauge voter reaction. Here’s our approach. We have identified a "swing voter group" comprised of undecided voters and voters who say they favor someone but might vote differently on election day. These individuals have been selected scientifically from our statewide voter surveys.

After watching the debate, the voters will be called to garner their reaction to the candidates, and then be invited to participate in an online chat at WNBC.com, hosted by the debate moderator Gabe Pressman and myself. This will provide both quantitative and qualitative information. If voters have access to the Internet, they can go directly to the chat. If not Web connected, an interviewer at Marist’s Interactive Communications Research Lab will serve as the conduit for their views, thereby addressing issues of the digital divide. In this way, we hope to achieve a more representative sample of the reaction of those voters who may determine the outcome of the race.

This is an auditorium style chat with only those previously selected voters weighing in. The media and the public watch the dialogue and ask questions.

We recognize that the total number of swing voters in the project will not be sufficient to make sweeping generalizations about their reaction to the debate, but we strongly feel this is a step in the right direction. Stay tuned.