Will the Big Apple Live up to its Name?

Dr. Lee M. Miringoff

Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho

The summer heat waves are showing up on schedule, but there continues to be little sizzle from the NYC mayoral contest this election season. The lack of voter interest is surprising. With Rudy Giuliani forced to the sidelines by term limits, the race is wide open. This should engender greater voter response. New Yorkers seem more concerned about the Yankees pitching rotation than they are about the next occupant of City Hall.

Certainly, there is plenty for voters to choose from. The field of mayoral wannabes includes individuals with long careers in public service and a successful businessman. Campaign 2001 is not amateur hour.

A recent Marist Poll shows, on the Democratic side, one-third of potential primary voters are undecided. Among voters who say they prefer a Democratic candidate, one-third tell us they might vote differently on primary day. On the GOP side, neither Michael Bloomberg nor Herman Badillo has created the kind of excitement so far that they must eventually arouse in a town where there are five Democrats for every Republican.

There are a grab-bag of reasons to account for the lack of political passion. The mayor’s race is sandwiched on the one hand between the mega US Senate campaign 2000 first between Hillary and Hillary, than between Hillary and Rudy, then between Rudy and Rudy, and finally, between Hillary and Rick. On the other hand, the New York State governor’s race in 2002 is already stirring with Andrew Cuomo and Carl McCall in a Democratic matchup to oppose George Pataki in the general election. (Not to mention voter fatigue from the presidential election that went into extra innings).

On the issues side of the equation, there is no single concern that is dividing the city or engaging the electorate. Education is by all poll accounts the number one priority for the next mayor, and each candidate is scrambling to get in front of the issue. (Michael Bloomberg and Alan Hevesi hope to create and run under Education Party banners.) But education is not a cross-cutting issue and none of the candidates is identified as the next education mayor. The lack of issue intensity is reflected in the comments of one candidate who mentioned that there is not much difference on issues among those aspiring to replace Rudy Giuliani.

So far, voters are left trying to sort out the candidates based on nuances. What part of the Giuliani legacy is each candidate willing to support and advance. Fighting crime scores big on this one. What part of the Giuliani legacy is each candidate eager to discard and redo. Race relations and unifying the city does well here.

None of the candidates has demonstrated the ability to grab media attention like Giuliani has throughout his tenure in office and, more recently, when his health and personal troubles hit page one. A series of candidate forums can’t compete with Rudy’s domination of tabloid headlines. In fairness to this current crop of office-seekers, NYC voters over the years have bounced back and forth in their mayors between headline grabbing, Broadway type show-stoppers and quieter, more unifying types - from Lindsay to Beame to Koch to Dinkins to Giuliani. The ho-hum character of this contest fits the pattern.

Campaign strategy has also muted the early action in this contest. With the exception of Michael Bloomberg, who is not part of the city’s campaign finance program, the candidates are limited in the amount they can spend on the primary. Each campaign has decided to horde its resources, spending only minimally on campaign ads so far, until later in the summer when presumably the voters will be paying more attention. Of course, by holding back on campaign ads, the candidates are also delaying the time when voters might join the race.

As Labor Day approaches, the contest could finally get a little more interesting, particularly as the Democratic candidates take aim at the 40% threshold that if not reached by one of them creates a runoff. The jockeying for position as candidates target their appeals might make things more lively. If Michael Bloomberg emerges unscathed from the Republican primary, he is hoping that the Democratic candidates don’t treat each other kindly in the closing weeks of the primary campaign. The greater the fracturing of support among the Democrats, the better for Bloomberg to find a way to break off a chunk of Democratic voters to add to his November total. But this will require a passion that is so far lacking in this contest.

Eventually, all eyes will turn to potential voter turnout and whether candidates are successful in lighting a fuse under their core supporters. Each candidate has an identifiable group of followers. For voters everywhere, elections have increasingly become a spectator sport, now political observers must wonder how many NYC voters in 2001 will show up even if long-awaited interest in this year’s race for City Hall finally begins to percolate.