And They’re Off… 2001/2002 New York Elections

With our apologies to those of you who have had your fill of elections for a while, the Marist Poll has began its polling on the 2001 NYC Mayoralty and the 2002 NYS Governor’s contests. Both races are expected to be competitive. NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani is term-limited and is stepping aside as mayor at least for four years, creating an open seat. On the statewide level, two major Democrats are planning to challenge Governor George Pataki, NYS Comptroller Carl McCall and former HUD Secretary Andrew Cuomo. This may not rise to the level of Hillary vs. Rudy/Rick, but it’s the Big Apple and things are heating up.

Marist’s recent NYC poll focuses on the morning line in the Democratic primary for mayor. The numbers place Public Advocate Mark Green in front of the Democratic pack of Fernando Ferrer, Alan Hevesi, and Peter Vallone. But the race is very fluid with one-third of NYC Democratic voters telling us they are undecided in their preference.

And then there is the Sharpton factor. Reverend Al Sharpton is weighing a repeat bid for mayor with the potential for scrambling these early numbers. Sharpton draws mostly from Green and Ferrer in this matchup. All bets are off until Sharpton decides which way he is going. In either case, a runoff looms large given the difficulties any of these candidates face in closing out the rest of the field.

The GOP side is not so crowded. Michael Bloomberg is giving serious thought to entering the race to take on the eventual Democratic nominee. In a city where there are five Democratic voters for every Republican, the GOP candidate must attract a huge crossover vote. Hard to do, but not impossible – see Mayors LaGuardia, Lindsay, and, of course, Giuliani.

Not to be outdone, the contest is already forming for the NYS Governor’s race in 2002. Governor Pataki is expected to seek a third term. Pataki is currently enjoying a 55% approval rating statewide in the latest Marist Poll, and by more than 2:1 the New York electorate thinks things in the state are heading in the right direction. But Governor Pataki cannot be thrilled about the inroads into the traditional Republican stronghold upstate made by Democratic candidates Clinton in 2000 and Schumer in 1998.

On the Democratic side, NYS Comptroller Carl McCall and former HUD Secretary Andrew Cuomo are on a collision course in trying to unseat Governor Pataki. Both Cuomo and McCall have significant political support within the Democratic Party, and the political capital necessary to make the race.

Cuomo has been trying to establish his own political identity, although he probably took heart in that, at least on the national level, the son of a former chief executive can regain the seat his father had previously held and lost. McCall has run successfully statewide and enjoys wide support among New York’s influential unions.

Currently, Pataki leads Cuomo by 11% and McCall by 15%, although Pataki’s support hovers near 50% in both matchups. The Democrats hope to cash in on 2002 being an off-year election for the Republicans or an economic downturn which can disrupt any incumbent’s re-election plans. But Governor Pataki could benefit from the lingering effects of a divisive Democratic party primary between Cuomo and McCall.

It is never too early in the continuous election cycles that now exist to take a look at these potential matchups. Even on the national level, the dust has barely settled on the 2000 election and whispers about 2004 are being heard… and with good reason. It’s only three years to the next New Hampshire primary, which in political terms translates to two years to one year from the next New Hampshire primary.