The
Battleground: The Presidential Race in Ohio
Contact: Lee M. Miringoff
Barbara L. Carvalho
Mary Azzoli
845.575.5050
This Marist Poll reports:
Presidential Race in Ohio:
· It’s a Tossup: The race for the White House is a dead heat among registered voters in Ohio. 44% of the state’s registered voters say they support Senator Barack Obama -- the same proportion who backs Senator John McCain. When likely Ohio voters, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, are factored into the equation, Obama has 47% to McCain’s 45%. 90% of likely Democratic voters in the state say they support Obama. A similar proportion of likely Republican voters -- 89% -- report that they are behind their party’s candidate. Support among likely Independent voters is evenly split between the two candidates with each receiving 42%.
Question Wording: If November’s presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:
|
|
John McCain/ Sarah Palin the Republicans |
Barack Obama/ Joe Biden the Democrats |
Other |
Undecided |
|
Registered voters |
44% |
44% |
2% |
10% |
|
Likely voters w/ leaners |
45% |
47% |
1% |
7% |
|
Democrats |
7% |
90% |
<1% |
3% |
|
Republicans |
89% |
7% |
<1% |
4% |
|
Independents |
42% |
42% |
2% |
14% |
·
Most Ohio
Voters Strongly Support Their Choice for President: Regardless of whom they
support, 81% of registered Ohio voters say they are strongly committed to their
candidate. 82% of voters who are McCain
supporters strongly support the GOP candidate while 79% of Obama backers are
firmly behind him. Only a small percentage
of both McCain’s and Obama’s supporters report they might change their vote by
Election Day -- 3% for McCain compared with 6% for Obama.
Question Wording: Would you say that you strongly support [ticket], somewhat support them, or do you think you might vote differently on Election Day?
|
Registered
voters |
Strongly Support |
Somewhat Support |
Might Vote Differently |
Unsure |
|
September 2008 |
81% |
14% |
4% |
1% |
|
McCain/Palin
supporters |
82% |
15% |
3% |
<1% |
|
Obama/Biden
supporters |
79% |
13% |
6% |
2% |
· Economy Takes Center Stage in Campaign: With many of the nation’s financial institutions in a tailspin, Ohio voters are worried about the economy. More than four in ten registered voters say the economy is the most important issue for them when picking a candidate. Security against terrorism and social issues tie for a distant second with 11%. Health care follows closely behind with 9%. There is at least one thing that both McCain and Obama supporters agree on -- the economy is the central issue in this presidential race. 35% of McCain’s backers and 49% of Obama’s report that the economy is the issue that matters most to them when choosing a candidate. However, more Republicans -- 22% -- say security against terrorism is the key issue in the race compared with just 2% of voters for Obama. Health care is a greater priority for Obama supporters. 15% of registered voters in the Democrat’s camp have it at the top of their list compared with only 3% of McCain’s backers.
Question Wording: When deciding your vote for president, which one of the following issues is most important to you:
|
Registered
voters |
Sept. 2008 |
McCain/ Palin Supporters |
Obama/ Biden Supporters |
|
Economy |
43% |
35% |
49% |
|
Security against terrorism |
11% |
22% |
2% |
|
Social issues like abortion or same sex marriage |
11% |
18% |
7% |
|
Health care |
9% |
3% |
15% |
|
War in |
7% |
4% |
10% |
|
Education |
5% |
2% |
7% |
|
Taxes |
5% |
9% |
3% |
|
Environment |
3% |
3% |
3% |
|
Illegal immigration |
2% |
2% |
1% |
|
Unsure |
4% |
2% |
3% |
· What Voters Want: Which quality do Ohio voters want most in their next president? 22% say it’s important for a candidate to be honest and trustworthy while 21% want a candidate who is closer to them on the issues. 17% want a president who shares their values, and 16% want someone who is a strong leader. Although, “change,” has been the buzzword in this campaign, it ranks fifth with Ohio voters. 14% say the nation’s next president should have the ability to bring about change. However, while a quarter of Obama’s supporters thinks it’s important to have a person who is closer to them on the issues in the White House, change is still important among his backers. A similar number -- 24% -- say it’s at the top of their priority list while just 3% of McCain’s supporters believe it to be important. As for what voters backing McCain want in a president, one-fourth say it’s someone who shares their values. A candidate who is honest and trustworthy is a close second at 23%.
Question Wording: When deciding your vote for president, which one of the following qualities is most important to you? A presidential candidate who:
|
Registered
voters |
Sept. 2008 |
McCain/ Palin Supporters |
Obama/ Biden Supporters |
|
Is honest and trustworthy |
22% |
23% |
21% |
|
Is closer to you on the issues |
21% |
18% |
25% |
|
Shares your values |
17% |
25% |
12% |
|
Is a strong leader |
16% |
19% |
13% |
|
Will bring about change |
14% |
3% |
24% |
|
Has experience |
6% |
9% |
2% |
|
Unsure |
4% |
3% |
3% |
Question Wording: Which presidential candidate do you think has a better plan to bring about change for the country?
|
Registered
voters |
McCain |
Obama |
Unsure |
|
September 2008 |
42% |
45% |
13% |
|
Democrats |
10% |