The Battleground: The Presidential Race in Ohio

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:  Friday, September 19, 2008

 

Contact:          Lee M. Miringoff

Barbara L. Carvalho

Mary Azzoli

Marist College

845.575.5050

 

This Marist Poll reports:

Presidential Race in Ohio:

·         It’s a Tossup: The race for the White House is a dead heat among registered voters in Ohio.  44% of the state’s registered voters say they support Senator Barack Obama -- the same proportion who backs Senator John McCain.  When likely Ohio voters, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, are factored into the equation, Obama has 47% to McCain’s 45%.  90% of likely Democratic voters in the state say they support Obama.  A similar proportion of likely Republican voters -- 89% -- report that they are behind their party’s candidate.  Support among likely Independent voters is evenly split between the two candidates with each receiving 42%.

 

Question Wording: If November’s presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:

 

 

John McCain/

Sarah Palin

the Republicans

Barack Obama/

Joe Biden

the Democrats

 

 

Other

 

 

Undecided

Registered voters

44%

44%

  2%

10%

Likely voters w/ leaners

45%

47%

  1%

  7%

  Democrats

  7%

90%

<1%

  3%

  Republicans

89%

  7%

<1%

  4%

  Independents

42%

42%

  2%

14%

 

·         Most Ohio Voters Strongly Support Their Choice for President: Regardless of whom they support, 81% of registered Ohio voters say they are strongly committed to their candidate.  82% of voters who are McCain supporters strongly support the GOP candidate while 79% of Obama backers are firmly behind him.  Only a small percentage of both McCain’s and Obama’s supporters report they might change their vote by Election Day -- 3% for McCain compared with 6% for Obama.

 

Question Wording: Would you say that you strongly support [ticket], somewhat support them, or do you think you might vote differently on Election Day?

 

 

Registered voters

Strongly Support

Somewhat Support

Might Vote Differently

 

Unsure

September 2008

81%

14%

  4%

  1%

  McCain/Palin supporters

82%

15%

  3%

<1%

  Obama/Biden supporters

79%

13%

  6%

  2%

 

·         Economy Takes Center Stage in Campaign:  With many of the nation’s financial institutions in a tailspin, Ohio voters are worried about the economy.  More than four in ten registered voters say the economy is the most important issue for them when picking a candidate.  Security against terrorism and social issues tie for a distant second with 11%.  Health care follows closely behind with 9%.  There is at least one thing that both McCain and Obama supporters agree on -- the economy is the central issue in this presidential race.  35% of McCain’s backers and 49% of Obama’s report that the economy is the issue that matters most to them when choosing a candidate.  However, more Republicans -- 22% -- say security against terrorism is the key issue in the race compared with just 2% of voters for Obama.  Health care is a greater priority for Obama supporters.  15% of registered voters in the Democrat’s camp have it at the top of their list compared with only 3% of McCain’s backers.

 

Question Wording: When deciding your vote for president, which one of the following issues is most important to you:

 

 

 

Registered voters

 

Sept.

2008

McCain/

Palin

Supporters

Obama/

Biden

Supporters

Economy

43%

35%

49%

Security against terrorism

11%

22%

  2%

Social issues like abortion or same sex marriage

11%

18%

  7%

Health care

  9%

  3%

15%

War in Iraq

  7%

  4%

10%

Education

  5%

  2%

  7%

Taxes

  5%

  9%

  3%

Environment

  3%

  3%

  3%

Illegal immigration

  2%

  2%

  1%

Unsure

  4%

  2%

  3%

 

·         What Voters Want:  Which quality do Ohio voters want most in their next president?  22% say it’s important for a candidate to be honest and trustworthy while 21% want a candidate who is closer to them on the issues.  17% want a president who shares their values, and 16% want someone who is a strong leader.  Although, “change,” has been the buzzword in this campaign, it ranks fifth with Ohio voters.  14% say the nation’s next president should have the ability to bring about change.  However, while a quarter of Obama’s supporters thinks it’s important to have a person who is closer to them on the issues in the White House, change is still important among his backers.  A similar number -- 24% -- say it’s at the top of their priority list while just 3% of McCain’s supporters believe it to be important.  As for what voters backing McCain want in a president, one-fourth say it’s someone who shares their values.  A candidate who is honest and trustworthy is a close second at 23%.

 

Question Wording: When deciding your vote for president, which one of the following qualities is most important to you?  A presidential candidate who:

 

 

 

Registered voters

 

Sept.

2008

McCain/

Palin

Supporters

Obama/

Biden

Supporters

Is honest and trustworthy

22%

23%

21%

Is closer to you on the issues

21%

18%

25%

Shares your values

17%

25%

12%

Is a strong leader

16%

19%

13%

Will bring about change

14%

  3%

24%

Has experience

  6%

  9%

  2%

Unsure

  4%

  3%

  3%

 

  • Winds of Change:  Ohio’s registered voters split over which candidate has the better plan to bring about change.  45% believe Obama is the better architect of change while 42% think McCain is the candidate to move the nation in a different direction.  Looking at how the parties break down, there is a wide partisan divide.  83% of registered Republicans think McCain has the better plan while 83% of Democrats think Obama has a better vision.  44% of Independents favor Obama’s plan compared with 37% who favor McCain’s.  

 

Question Wording: Which presidential candidate do you think has a better plan to bring about change for the country?

 

Registered voters

McCain

Obama

Unsure

September 2008

42%

45%

13%

  Democrats

10%