New Jersey Race for Governor

EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE:  Monday 6:00 p.m. October 10, 2005

All references must be sourced WNBC/Marist Poll

 

Contact:           Dr. Lee M. Miringoff

Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho

Marist College

845.575.5050

 

This WNBC/Marist Poll reports:

·                    Hotly contested race for governor is thisclose:  Jon Corzine and Doug Forrester are in a statistical dead heat among New Jersey voters likely to vote on Election Day.  Corzine receives the support of 44% of likely voters compared with 43% for Doug Forrester.  13% are undecided.  When undecided voters are asked which candidate they are leaning toward, the results become 47% for Jon Corzine and 45% for Doug Forrester.  8% of likely voters remain undecided.

 

Question Wording: If the election for governor were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:

 

 

October 2005

Doug Forrester Republican

Jon Corzine Democrat

 

Other

 

Undecided

  Likely Voters

43%

44%

<1%

13%

  Likely Voters w/ Leaners

45%

47%

<1%

  8%

  Registered Voters

38%

45%

<1%

17%

 

·                    Behind the numbers…a politically polarized New Jersey electorate:  Over three-quarters of Republicans and 73% of political conservatives likely to vote on Election Day support Doug Forrester.  In contrast, 74% of Democrats and 68% of voters who describe themselves as politically liberal support Jon Corzine.  More independents and moderate voters, who often hold the balance in statewide elections, prefer Corzine over Forrester.  But many of these voters, 20% of independents and 15% of moderates, are yet to make up their minds.

 

Question Wording: If the election for governor were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:

 

 

Likely Voters

Doug Forrester Republican

Jon Corzine Democrat

 

Other

 

Undecided

 Party

 

 

 

 

  Democrat

20%

74%

<1%

  6%

  Republican

78%

11%

<1%

11%

  Independent

33%

47%

<1%

20%

 Ideology

 

 

 

 

  Liberal

21%

68%

<1%

11%

  Moderate

35%

50%

<1%

15%

  Conservative

73%

20%

<1%

  7%

 Gender

 

 

 

 

  Men

44%

42%

<1%

14%

  Women

42%

47%

<1%

11%

 Age

 

 

 

 

  Under 45

30%

60%

<1%

10%

  45 or older

46%

42%

<1%

12%

 

·                    Many voters strongly support their choice for governor:  67% of likely voters who have a preference in the race for governor are firmly committed to their candidate.  24% say they somewhat support their choice, and only 9% say they might vote differently on Election Day.  69% of Doug Forrester’s supporters say they are strongly committed to him.  66% of Jon Corzine’s supporters say they are firmly committed to their choice.

 

Question Wording: Would you say that you strongly support (candidate name),

somewhat support (candidate name), or do you think that you might vote differently on Election Day?

 

 

Likely Voters

Strongly Support

Somewhat Support

Might Vote Differently

 

Unsure

October 2005

67%

24%

  9%

<1%

 Doug Forrester

69%

20%

10%

  1%

 Jon Corzine

66%

27%

  7%

<1%

 

·                 A majority of state voters have a positive view of both candidates for governor:  Both Doug Forrester and Jon Corzine are viewed positively by many New Jersey voters.  52% of the state’s registered voters have a favorable view of Doug Forrester, and 56% have a favorable impression of Jon Corzine.

 

Question Wording: In general, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of Doug Forrester/Jon Corzine?

 

Registered Voters

Favorable

Unfavorable

Unsure/Never Heard

Doug Forrester

52%

33%

15%

Jon Corzine

56%

35%

  9%

 

·                 But only half are satisfied with the choice of candidates for governor:  Only 50% of registered voters in New Jersey are satisfied with the candidates running for governor.  44% say they are not satisfied, and 6% are unsure.

 

Question Wording: In general, are you satisfied or not satisfied with the candidates who are running for governor in New Jersey?

 

Registered Voters

Satisfied

Not Satisfied

Unsure

October 2005

50%

44%

  6%

 

·                 One on one…image:  Although about one in five voters are unsure if there are specific differences in their impressions of the candidates for governor, Jon Corzine is generally perceived by more voters than Doug Forrester as having the qualities to be governor.   These qualities include experience, the ability to unify the state, to represent all regions, to move the state forward, to run the state government well, to understand the problems of New Jersey, to be a better leader, and to care about the people of the state.  31% of registered voters do not see either candidate as being more honest or trustworthy.

 

Question Wording: As governor, do you think Doug Forrester or Jon Corzine is more likely to:

 

Registered Voters

Forrester

Corzine

Unsure

Be a better leader for New Jersey

35%

45%

20%

Understand the problems facing NJ

34%

45%

21%

Care more about people like yourself

34%

41%

25%

Better represent all regions of the state

33%

47%

20%

Run state government well

32%

45%

23%

Unify the state & get it working together

31%

47%

22%

Move NJ forward in the next 4 years

31%

46%

23%

Be more honest and trustworthy

31%

38%

31%

Have the better experience to be governor

27%

54%

19%

 

·                 One on one…the issues:  However, when it comes to the issues, voters divide over which candidate would do a better job as governor.  Forrester edges Corzine on reducing property taxes and cleaning up government corruption, two important issues for New Jersey voters in this campaign.  Corzine is seen by more voters as likely to do a better job improving education, bringing jobs and businesses to the state, and making health care more affordable.

 

Question Wording: Do you think Doug Forrester or Jon Corzine is more likely to do a better job as governor for each of the following:

 

Registered Voters

Forrester

Corzine

Unsure

Reducing property taxes

43%

39%

18%

Dealing with the state budget

42%

40%

18%

Cleaning up government corruption

41%

36%

23%

Making it more affordable to live in NJ

38%

40%

22%

Bringing more jobs and businesses to NJ

37%

45%

18%

Handling security against a terror attack

33%

37%

30%

Improving the quality of education

31%

46%

23%

Making health care more affordable

31%

47%

22%

 

·                    But many voters see campaign as more about attacks, not issues:  58% of registered voters believe the candidates for governor have spent more time attacking each other rather than talking about the issues.  29% think the campaigns have focused more on the issues, and 13% are unsure.

 

Question Wording: In general, do you feel that the candidates for governor have spent more time talking about their positions on the issues or attacking each other?

 

 

Registered Voters

Talking

Issues

Attacking

Each Other

 

Unsure

October 2005

29%

58%

13%