New Hampshire Presidential
Primary
Contact: Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho Marist College 845.575.5050
This Marist College Institute for Public Opinion poll reports:
·
Hillary Clinton holds her own in New Hampshire among
likely Democratic primary voters: After a considerable drop in support in last month’s poll, Hillary
Clinton’s lead over her Democratic rivals for the 2008 New Hampshire Democratic
Presidential Primary has steadied. Last
month, Clinton saw her lead cut in half against her nearest competitor, Barack
Obama. But, in this current poll, there
is little difference between her support now and a month ago. In fact, the gap between the two top
contenders is statistically unchanged. 37%
of likely Democratic presidential primary voters currently support Senator Clinton
followed by 23% for Senator Obama. Former
Senator John Edwards receives 18%. The remaining
candidates, Governor Bill Richardson, Congressman Dennis Kucinich, Senator Joe
Biden, Senator Chris Dodd, and former Senator Mike Gravel trail with single
digit support.
Question
Wording: If
the New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary were held today, whom would
you support if the candidates are:
Likely Democratic
Primary Voters
|
December 2007 |
November 2007 |
October 2007 |
|||
|
Likely Voters |
Likely w/ Leaners |
Likely Voters |
Likely w/ Leaners |
Likely Voters |
Likely w/ Leaners |
|
|
Hillary Clinton |
37% |
37% |
36% |
38% |
41% |
43% |
|
Barack Obama |
23% |
24% |
25% |
26% |
20% |
21% |
|
John Edwards |
18% |
18% |
14% |
14% |
11% |
12% |
|
Bill Richardson |
8% |
8% |
6% |
6% |
8% |
8% |
|
Dennis Kucinich |
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
|
Joe Biden |
1% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
3% |
3% |
|
Chris Dodd |
<1% |
<1% |
1% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
|
Mike Gravel |
<1% |
<1% |
<1% |
<1% |
<1% |
<1% |
|
Undecided |
10% |
8% |
13% |
9% |
12% |
8% |
·
Who’s supporting whom? Hillary Clinton is stronger among Democrats
than independents likely to vote in the New Hampshire Democratic Presidential
Primary. Among likely Democratic voters,
Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama by 16 percentage points and John Edwards by
24 percentage points. Among independent
voters likely to vote in the Democratic primary, she edges Barack Obama by only
7 percentage points and leads John Edwards by 10 percentage points. Clinton continues to outpace her rivals among
women. She receives the support of 42%
of women who are likely to vote in New Hampshire’s Democratic Primary. Barack Obama and John Edwards are far behind
Clinton among women with 20% and 18%, respectively. The contest between Clinton and Obama is much
more competitive among men. Barack Obama
attracts the support of 29% of men likely to vote in the Democratic primary
next month compared with 27% for Hillary Clinton. John Edwards trails among men with 18%. Nearly one in five likely Democratic primary
voters has never before voted in New Hampshire’s Democratic Primary. Obama edges his opponents among these voters. He receives the support of 35% of first time
voters compared with 29% for Clinton and 21% for Edwards.
Question
Wording: If
the New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary were held today, whom would
you support if the candidates are:
|
Likely Democratic Primary Voters |
Clinton |
Obama |
Edwards |
Other |
Undecided |
|
Democrats |
39% |
23% |
15% |
13% |
10% |
|
Independents |
32% |
25% |
22% |
11% |
10% |
|
Men |
27% |
29% |
18% |
17% |
9% |
|
Women |
42% |
20% |
18% |
9% |
11% |
|
Liberal |
34% |
25% |
16% |
14% |
11% |
|
Moderate |
36% |
23% |
17% |
13% |
11% |
|
Conservative |
44% |
21% |
23% |
5% |
7% |
|
Not
college |
42% |
18% |
18% |
9% |
13% |
|
College |
33% |
27% |
17% |
14% |
9% |
|
<
$50,000 |
38% |
23% |
16% |
13% |
10% |
|
$50,000
or > |
36% |
25% |
19% |
12% |
8% |
|
18
to 44 |
30% |
31% |
23% |
10% |
6% |
|
45
or older |
41% |
18% |
14% |
15% |
12% |
|
1st
time voter in Dem. primary |