Getting Dirty?

New Hampshire Presidential Primary

EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE:  Sunday, December 9, 2007

Contact:          Dr. Lee M. Miringoff

Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho

Marist College

845.575.5050

This Marist College Institute for Public Opinion poll reports:

·                  Likely primary voters expect the worst is yet to come:  Although many voters likely to vote in New Hampshire’s Democratic or Republican Primaries still think the candidates are discussing the issues, most voters think the campaigns will get more negative as primary day approaches.  61% of both likely Democratic primary voters and likely Republican primary voters think the candidates are mostly focused on the issues.  However, 70% of likely Democratic primary voters and 66% of likely Republican primary voters think the tone of the campaign will get worse as primary day gets closer.

 

Question Wording: Do you feel that the Democratic/Republican candidates for president have spent more time talking about their positions on issues or attacking each other? 

 

 
Likely Voters

Talking Issues

Attacking Each Other

 

Both

 

Neither

 

Unsure

Democratic primary voters

61%

26%

 7%

 1%

 5%

Republican primary voters

61%

29%

 5%

 1%

 4%

 

Question Wording: Do you think the tone of the Democratic/Republican presidential campaign is generally getting more negative or less negative as it gets closer to primary day?

 

 
Likely Voters

More Negative

Less Negative

Will Stay About the Same

Democratic primary voters

70%

23%

 7%

Republican primary voters

66%

28%

  6%

 

·                     Who’s to blame for the negative tone?  About one in three likely Democratic and Republican primary voters aren’t really sure any one candidate is more responsible for brandishing barbs against the others.  Among likely Democratic primary voters who do point a finger, blame is mostly laid at the doorstep of their favorite candidate’s major opponents.  For instance, Hillary Clinton’s supporters are more likely to hold Barack Obama responsible for the negative campaign tone as are backers of John Edwards.  Obama’s supporters are more likely to blame Edwards and Clinton.  On the Republican side, 32% of likely Republican primary voters think Rudy Giuliani has done the most attacking.  Although one in ten of Giuliani’s supporters shares this view, this perception is largely fueled by 34% of John McCain’s supporters and 48% of likely Republican primary voters who back Mitt Romney.

 

Question Wording: Which Democratic presidential candidate do you think is attacking the other candidates the most:

 

Likely Democratic Primary Voters

December 2007

Clinton Supporters

Edwards Supporters

Obama Supporters

Barack Obama

22%

30%

30%

  2%

John Edwards

20%

18%

  6%

29%

Hillary Clinton

12%

  1%

19%

26%

Dennis Kucinich

 4%

  5%

  2%

  7%

Joe Biden

 3%

  4%

  3%

  3%

Bill Richardson

 2%

  4%

  5%

<1%

Chris Dodd

 2%

  2%

<1%

  5%

Mike Gravel

 1%

  2%

<1%

  2%

Unsure

34%

34%

35%

26%

 

Question Wording: Which Republican presidential candidate do you think is attacking the other candidates the most:

 

Likely Republican Primary Voters

December 2007

Giuliani

 Supporters

McCain

 Supporters

Romney Supporters

Rudy Giuliani

32%

10%

34%

48%

Mitt Romney

14%

25%

26%

<1%

Ron Paul

  8%

14%

  6%

  1%

John McCain

  7%

  7%

<1%

11%

Fred Thompson

  5%

  4%

  6%

  5%

Mike Huckabee

  2%

  1%

  2%

  1%

Tom Tancredo

  1%

<1%

<1%

  4%

Duncan Hunter

<1%

<1%

  2%

  1%

Unsure

31%

39%

24%

29%

 

 

·                     On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is more likely to be seen as the target of negative attacks:  There is a consensus among likely Democratic primary voters that Hillary Clinton is the candidate most likely to be the recipient of negative attacks.  76% of likely Democratic primary voters think Clinton is the candidate who is attacked the most.  But, likely voters divide over whether or not these attacks are deserved.  About two-thirds of supporters of her closest opponents, Barack Obama and John Edwards, generally believe the attacks on Clinton are fair.  This compares with 65% of Clinton’s backers who believe the attacks are unfair.

 

Question Wording: Which Democratic presidential candidate do you think is being attacked the most:

 

Likely Democratic Primary Voters

December 2007

Hillary Clinton

76%

Barack Obama

  9%

John Edwards

  2%

Dennis Kucinich

  1%

Bill Richardson

  1%

Joe Biden

<1%

Mike Gravel

<1%

Chris Dodd

<1%

Unsure

11%

 

Question Wording:  Do you think the other Democratic presidential candidates are attacking Hillary Clinton fairly, unfairly, or not at all?

 

Likely Democratic Primary Voters

Attacks Are Fair

Attacks Are Unfair

Not Attacking At All

 

Unsure

December 2007

45%

42%