New Hampshire Democratic
Presidential Primary
Contact: Dr. Lee M. Miringoff
Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho
845.575.5050
This Marist College Institute for Public Opinion poll reports:
·
Kerry leads the field: Massachusetts Senator John Kerry leads among likely voters for the
New Hampshire Democratic primary in a three-day poll conducted from Friday
through Sunday. Including voters who
are leaning towards a candidate, Kerry leads his closest rival former Vermont
Governor Howard Dean by 13 points.
Retired General Wesley Clark, North Carolina Senator John Edwards, and
Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman are in a statistical tie for third place. The other candidates, Congressman Dennis
Kucinich and Reverend Al Sharpton trail.[*]
·
Movement in Sunday results? In the results from Sunday
alone, Kerry’s lead over Dean remains 13 points and the order of the next three
finishers is now Edwards, Clark, and Lieberman.
·
Contest is firming up: Only 6% of likely New Hampshire
Democratic primary voters are undecided and 73% who have a preference for a
candidate are strongly committed to him.
Question Wording: If
the next Democratic presidential primary were held today, whom would you
support if the candidates are:
|
|
Sunday Only Likely Voters w/ Leaners |
Sunday Only Total Voters w/ Leaners |
Friday-Sunday Likely Voters w/ Leaners |
Friday-Sunday Total Voters w/ Leaners |
|
John Kerry |
36% |
35% |
37% |
37% |
|
Howard Dean |
23% |
22% |
24% |
23% |
|
John Edwards |
14% |
13% |
11% |
11% |
|
Wesley Clark |
11% |
12% |
11% |
12% |
|
Joe Lieberman |
9% |
11% |
9% |
11% |
|
Dennis
Kucinich |
1% |
1% |
2% |
1% |
|
Al Sharpton |
<1% |
<1% |
<1% |
<1% |
|
Undecided |
6% |
6% |
6% |
5% |
·
The Candidates’ Supporters: John Kerry does best among voters who work in
Massachusetts, voters without a college education, voters who are 45 years of
age or older, women, voters who are members of a labor union, or Democrats.
|
Friday-Sunday Likely Voters |
Kerry |
Dean |
Edwards |
Clark |
Lieberman |
Kucinich |
Sharpton |
Undecided |
|
Democrats |
41% |
26% |
10% |
9% |
6% |
2% |
<1% |
6% |
|
Independents |
34% |
22% |
11% |
14% |
13% |
1% |
<1% |
5% |
|
Walk-ups
|
39% |
21% |
8% |
26% |
6% |
<1% |
<1% |
<1% |
|
Liberal |
36% |
33% |
10% |
11% |
3% |
2% |
<1% |
5% |
|
Moderate |
41% |
18% |
11% |
12% |
11% |
1% |
<1% |
6% |
|
Conservative |
31% |
23% |
10% |
12% |
18% |
<1% |
1% |
5% |
|
Men |
33% |
29% |
7% |
13% |
11% |
2% |
<1% |
5% |
|
Women |
40% |
21% |
13% |
10% |
8% |
2% |
<1% |
6% |
|
Not
college |
45% |
21% |
10% |
9% |
10% |
<1% |
<1% |
5% |
|
College |
31% |
27% |
11% |
12% |
9% |
3% |
<1% |
7% |
|
<
$50,000 |
37% |
23% |
11% |
13% |
8% |
2% |
<1% |
6% |
|
$50,000
or > |
38% |
24% |
11% |
11% |
11% |
1% |
<1% |
4% |
|
18
– 44 |
34% |
27% |
12% |
12% |
10% |
2% |
<1% |
3% |
|
45
& older |
40% |
23% |
10% |
10% |
8% |
2% |
<1% |
7% |
|
Work
MA |
50% |